This weekend the NFL playoffs begin, and this is the way forward for each of the AFC teams that continue to seek the feat
Of 32, 14 remain. The NFL playoffs begin this weekend with the Wild Card round, with six duels that will leave only eight teams in competition heading to the Divisional round. That is, in a space of seven days, between the end of the regular season and the first week of the playoffs, the hopes of 24 teams to win the Super Bowl will have disappeared.
But right now, hope is endless for fans of the teams still in contention. In the end, only one of them will have the opportunity to lift the Lombardi, so they should follow these tips to give themselves the best chance of being the champion next month. Here, we will look at the seven American Conference teams that are still looking for the Lombardi:
They will win the Super Bowl if…
His stellar defense. In the hypothetical case of reaching Super Bowl LX, the Broncos will have to dominate defensively as they have done all season.
The group led by coordinator Vance Joseph is third best in yards allowed per game, second best in yards allowed on the ground and eighth in yards allowed through the air. It is well said that the offense wins games and the defense wins championships. Therefore, they only need to have a competent offense to get ahead.
The X Factor is…
Bo Nix. The Broncos QB is one of the few players of his position in the playoffs who will not be called upon to be the team’s big star. For this reason, the former Oregon Ducks QB will have to avoid mistakes at all costs, so as not to have to play from behind in the fourth quarter during the postseason. This year, Nix has seven come-from-behind wins – so the Broncos can’t be ruled out if they get off to a slow start in any of these games.
You can’t win without…
Close the curtain in the red zone. The Broncos have allowed touchdowns less than half of the time when opponents enter their 20-yard line, a statistic that has allowed them to remain competitive in every game this season. If any team can find the formula to consistently score against them there, Denver’s season will be over.
They will win the Super Bowl if…
Drake Maye continues to play as an MVP candidate. The race for NFL MVP is between Maye and Matthew Stafford. The Patriots QB leads the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt and rating. In only one game has he completed less than 60 percent of his passes, and the only team he didn’t throw a touchdown pass to all season was the Buffalo Bills (who he may face a third time). For the Patriots to win their first Super Bowl in the post-Brady era, Maye will need to play at this level the rest of the way.
The X Factor is…
The running back trio: TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson and Maye. The Patriots have been able to control the pace of several games this season with their running game. Although none of them reached 1,000 yards, between the three they totaled 1,739 yards and 16 touchdowns. Without the strength of the running game, the Patriots would not have finished as the fifth-best scoring offense in the league.
You can’t win without…
The pressure defense, led by Harold Landry III and K’Lavon Chaisson. The Patriots also have a defense in the top five in the league in terms of points allowed this season. The big key is the pressure generated by Landry and Chaisson, who have combined to get 15 sacks and 35 hits on opposing QBs. In all of 2025, the Patriots allowed more than 30 points just once – the loss to the Bills. In that duel, Chaisson did not have a single tackle.
They will win the Super Bowl if…
Trevor Lawrence continues his recent dominance. Between November 16 and December 28, Lawrence scored 21 TDs (16 through the air, five on the ground), propelling the Jaguars’ offense to another level, dethroning the Colts who seemed to own the AFC South, and taking the division crown after a winning streak that sustained the team against the attacks of the Houston Texans. Throughout, the key has been Lawrence, who for the first time in his career plays like a former #1 overall draft pick, and a guy with the talent to transform his franchise.
The X Factor is…
Travis Etienne. Only three playoff-qualified running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs and James Cook III) scored more touchdowns than Etienne this season. The former Clemson player’s 13 touchdowns are proof of the importance that Etienne has within Liam Coen’s system. Against playoff teams this season, Etienne scored six of his 13 touchdowns, highlighting his importance to Lawrence and the rest of the Florida team.
They can’t win without…
Generate defensive turnovers. The Jaguars took the ball away from opponents 31 times this season, with 22 interceptions and nine fumbles. Safety Antonio Johnson and linebacker Devin Lloyd, both with five interceptions, were second in the NFL in this category. Any team looking to move the ball through the air against Jacksonville will have to be wary of the opportunistic defense they will face.
They will win the Super Bowl if…
The defense and the running game on offense do their job. The keys to the Steelers winning their division this season were simple: for the defensive line, led by TJ Watt, to dominate – and for Jaylen Warren (and Kenneth Gainwell) to keep the offense afloat by running the ball. In virtually every defensive category, the Steelers are Top 10 in the league. On the other side, Warren and Gainwell combined for nearly 1,500 yards and 11 TDs.
The X Factor is…
Arthur Smith. Yes, it’s strange to single out a team’s offensive coordinator, but the difference between the Steelers’ offense against the Browns two weeks ago and what we saw against the Ravens to win the division – without DK Metcalf in both games – was abysmal. For the postseason, Metcalf will return, and the Steelers will face another elite defensive cast in the first round: the Houston Texans. Will Smith manage to design a successful strategy?
They can’t win without…
A neat Aaron Rodgers. In the six losses in which the former legendary Packers QB participated this season (he was injured in the team’s other loss), he gave up turnovers in five of those games. Instead, in his ten wins this year, he threw 16 TDs and just one interception, with a fumble. If Rodgers takes care of the ball, the Steelers will emerge victorious.
5. Houston Texans
They will win the Super Bowl if…
The defense continues its dominance. The Texans started the year 0-3, and finished 12-2, including a nine-game winning streak to close the season. In that span, they beat potential playoff rivals: the Jaguars, Bills and Chargers. And they did it, furthermore, with an offense that struggled to shine in many moments. The defense was, without a doubt, the differentiator. In this active nine-game winning streak, they have produced 16 turnovers, and have two pressure monsters in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, who sacked the opposing QB 27 times this year.
The X Factor is…
Ka’imi Fairbairn. The kicker led the NFL with 44 field goals on 48 attempts, including 86.2 percent on attempts of more than 40 yards all season. We mentioned that the Texans have, at times, struggled to maintain an offensive rhythm this season. With Fairbairn, the formula is simple: move the ball enough to get into field goal range, and let the defense do the same on the other side.
They can’t win without…
Score 20 points. It sounds very simplistic, but the Texans’ defense has been so dominant that no opponent has been able to beat them by scoring more than 20 points all season. Yes, they won three games this season where the opponent scored more than that, but the 292 points they allowed all season (second in the entire NFL, only behind the Seahawks) make it very clear that if CJ Stroud, Nico Collins and the rest of the Texans’ offense can be halfway competent, the defense will take care of the rest.
They will win the Super Bowl if…
James Cook is still in beast mode. The biggest criticism of the Bills’ offense this year has always been the lack of stars in the passing game. But Josh Allen’s talent has made that not a factor, as the QB managed to have another season at a high level. What certainly made Buffalo a Top 5 offense this year was the big step forward Cook took on the ground, with 1,621 yards (the highest number in the league) and 12 TDs. With 33 receptions, he was also a reliable option for Allen as an escape valve in the air game. If Cook – who is going to his third straight Pro Bowl – stays in January, there will be no stopping the Bills.
The X Factor is…
The defense. Which of the two Bills defenses will show up in January? The one he limited to less than 13 points in his games against the Panthers, Steelers and Eagles? Or the one that allowed more than 30 points to five teams, only the Patriots of which will go to the playoffs? Bobby Babich’s group has received countless criticisms this year, and with good reason – especially in the face of the bullfight they have suffered all season. Now, from the start, they will face teams that can move the ball on the ground, so they will have to fight to stay alive.
You can’t win without…
Josh Allen. This is, perhaps, the most obvious category for all 14 teams left alive. Allen is probably the best QB in the league, and the one who tends to carry his team the most in key situations. Without their top leader, the Bills have no path to winning the Super Bowl, and in a year where the Chiefs are not there, Allen will have extra motivation to drag the entire franchise towards the Lombardi.
They will win the Super Bowl if…
They manage to keep Justin Herbert clean. The Chargers have suffered two major injuries this year to their offensive line, specifically to their two best players there: Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. As a result, Herbert has been under siege all year by opposing defenses. Only Geno Smith and Cam Ward (55 each) were sacked more times than Herbert in 2025, and yet the former Oregon QB has his team in the playoffs again, complete with broken bones in his left hand. If the Chargers line gives their QB time and limits turnovers (they had 21 this year), they have everything to move forward.
The X Factor is…
The running game. Ironically, the Chargers looked better running the ball when their star rookie, Omarion Hampton, was out with an injury. Kimani Vidal, his backup, finished as the team’s yardage leader this year with 643. The Chargers will have to use their two running backs in the postseason to limit the number of pass downs (and thus avoid pressure against Herbert) and control the clock, two necessary ingredients for coach Jim Harbaugh’s team to advance in the playoffs.
They can’t win without…
Tuli Tuipolutu and Derwin James. These two elements are the heart of the Bolts defense, evidenced by their Pro Bowl selections. Tuipolutu led the team with 13 sacks, earning his reputation as one of the hardest-hitting players in the NFL. James’ talent, for his part, is no secret, the safety is one of the best players in the league at his position for years. This season was no exception, as he had 94 tackles and three interceptions and two sacks. If Tuipolutu and James are good on defense, the Chargers have a chance in practically any game.
