In the sequence above, we see a fairly typical formation for these Ravens, with two tight ends and a fullback and Henry in the backfield. The snap begins and the quarterback plays a toss to get the ball to Henry, who takes advantage of the excellent blocks he is receiving on the outside.
Pittsburgh has historically tried to stop Baltimore by prioritizing containment and reading, but that means giving up some of its natural aggressiveness. The tactical dilemma is finding the balance: pressing enough to bother without opening escape lanes. Derrick Harmon has been a plus for Mike Tomlin’s team against the opposing running game. When he is on the field, the interior of the defensive line goes up completely and prevents his opponent from finding interior corridors to run, freeing the edge rushers to make plays and tackles for loss of yards. If the Steelers manage to minimize damage on the ground, they can make things very difficult for the Ravens’ passing game. As I write these lines, it is not yet definitive who will be the quarterback for John Harbaugh’s team. If Huntley has to come out to play, the Steelers secondary can force turnovers. In coverage, the Steelers have been solid in zone, but have shown weaknesses when they have to cover deep post-play-action routes. Anything that allows rushing yards to the Ravens will be their grave, because that could open up Baltimore’s passing game.
Pittsburgh’s offense, for its part, has shown clear improvement in the second half of the season in terms of EPA on third downs and red zone efficiency. However, it is still a narrow margin attack. His running game has been more effective in success rate than in explosiveness, which implies long drives and the need for precision. Against a defense like Baltimore’s, which limits mistakes and punishes turnovers, that approach is risky. The feeling is that, when Rodgers has been more aggressive, the Steelers have been able to do real damage. However, the idea of the game is still to limit risks and play much more horizontally to lengthen drives and play attrition matches. The losses in attack by the Pittsburgh team favor the Ravens’ individual defenses and endanger the victory of the locals.
In this game, the battle of turnovers is crucial. Pittsburgh needs to win the spread to have a real chance. Baltimore, on the other hand, can afford a more conservative approach, relying on its overall efficiency. The question is not only who wins, but what signs the game leaves for January. A week ago, the Steelers had made their way to the post-season, but the horrific match played in Cleveland has given extra life to the Ravens who now have the opportunity to knock out their divisional rival in their own home, something that could blow up the steel franchise.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh, true to their history, meet in a duel that is as tactical as it is emotional. In those nuances, in those details that do not always appear on the scoreboard, the true value of these games is defined.
