Back to the old ways. After two hard-fought but very meritorious victories away from home, on the courts of Hapoel and Efes (for a total of +7), Real Madrid crashed in the next two outings, in Milan and Monacoand does not raise his head at home. Not in Europe, where the margin of error is always minimal: it is 3-7 outside the Movistar Arena, a number of victories that only eight teams in the competition worse. And an obvious contrast with Madrid’s 7-1. In total, a mediocre 10-8 that is far from what was expected when a radical change was made to the team with the arrival of Sergio Rodríguez to the offices, Sergio Scariolo to the bench and several important players (Theo Maledon, Chuma Okeke, Trey Lyles…) to reinforce a team that won the League with an extraordinary second part of the season in ACB but in which Chus Mateo was already sentenced after failing to win either the Super Cup or the Cup and being left out of the Final Four.
That Real Madrid 2024-25, which started with many injury problems and with the burden of a bad transfer policy that It ruined the relay that had to follow when many very important pieces came out on the court and in the locker room. (Rudy Fernández, Sergio Rodríguez, Fabien Causeur, Vincent Poirier and Guerschon Yabusele), was 9-9 after 18 very disappointing games, practically the same pace as the current team. The season finished 20-14, after a good sprint final, a 58.8% victory rate that improves the current pace (55.6%). It is obvious that there is a lot left, the Euroleague is a long-distance race, and that all the objectives are within reach: Madrid is three games behind the leader, two games away from fourth place, which entitles them to have a home field advantage in the quarterfinals (fundamental in the Euroleague), and only one game away from sixth place, which prevents them from playing in the play-offs. But it is also close to the precipice: tenthin last place play in and with only one game to spare over Milan and Dubai, which is the next visitor to Madrid.
A martyrdom outside Madrid
Madrid has lost 10 official matches between the Super Cup, the League and the Euroleague. Of those, only one (against Panathinaikos) was played on their court, where it is absolutely reliable: 5-0 in the League, 7-1 in the Euroleague. The problem is when you have to pack your bags. This is how they lost (neutral court) the Super Cup final against Valencia, their only game in the League (in Vitoria) and already seven out of ten in European competition. Also, it rains in the wet. If we add the last regular phase and the current one in the Euroleague, The team’s total balance is 20-5 at home and 10-17 away. A piece of information, the second, is very bad and does not correspond to what a title contender should sign. And Real Madrid wants to be that way every season.
The white team’s problems are beginning to be recurring. The outside shot is unstable, without specialists; also missing, in attack, at least another handlerand combo guard (base-guard) with points and creation that remains (we will see) the pending signing. Players who should be trunksfundamental, like Mario Hezonja, they combine good games with very poor performances; and there are roles that are still not fully filled (between Usman Garuba and Alex Len, who arrived for Bruno Fernando, they do not provide solidity with the necessary regularity to the replacement of Edy Tavares in the cinco) y a policy that is being controversial in rotations and minute management. Scariolo, who also opts for a lower pace and a more controlled game than that which characterized the Madrid of Mateo and especially Pablo Laso, is clear that the most important thing is to dose his players and for everyone to arrive with Gasoline and legs to the milestones of the season.
But that collides with a diet of defeats that is currently excessive and causes some rotation patterns in matches that end up being unnatural, stubborn. As with so many things, the final balance will be made from the consequentialismwhen it is verified whether or not it works in the fight for titles. For now, it is risky at the very least to give ground in the fight for the home court factor in the quarterfinals. And even more so in a very new team, with a new coach, who needs to internalize many automatisms. Something that was very obvious in the first part of the season.
The defense, worse than expected
One of the least convincing aspects for now, and it became clear in the crucial moments of the game in Monaco (in which Trey Lyles was missing and Theo Maledon played under minimum due to a stomach virus), is the defense. With the National Team, a non-negotiable hallmark of Sergio Scariolo and his right hand in that section, with him also now in Madrid, Luis Guil. This is especially obvious away from home: 98 points for Valencia in the Super Cup final and 105 for Baskonia in the League is the balance in the two games lost in domestic competition. In the Euroleague, Madrid scores 85.8 on average and receives 84.5. But At home their numbers drop to 74.8 in favor and 86.5 received per game. In five of those ten away games, he has received 90 points or more. And in another, his rival reached 89. At home, the situation is better: 89.6 in favor and 82 against.
In its victories, Madrid scores 89.7 points on average and receives 81. In their defeats, the balance is 81 in favor and 88.8 against. The difference is obvious. In five of their ten Euroleague wins, rivals have remained at 77 points or less. In four of their losses, they have gone over 90. And in seven of the eight, they have gone over 85.a figure that serves as obvious red line: if the rivals surpass it, serious problems. The only one that has beaten Madrid by scoring less has been Virtus on the first day, in Bologna (74-68). A game in which Madrid recorded a terrible 3/23 in triples.
Real Madrid’s total figures are mediocre, for now: twelfth in points scored, eighth in received with a difference of just +24 (+1.3 per game). Of the top ten (the playoff zone and play in), only Panathinaikos (85.5) and Valencia Basket (85.2) receive more points than Scariolo. Both, of course, also score more (88.7 and 89.5). Olympiacos matches, with one less game, the 84.5 points that Madrid receives, but also with more scoring (88.4).
Advanced metrics are not particularly positive either: eleventh rating offensive (calculated production per 100 possessions) and eighth in rating defensive. In the balance between both (net rating), also eleventh. Below average. Twelfth in triples scored and in percentage of those shots, fifteenth in assists and, one of his virtues for now, third in rebounds. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 4 and the pace of play (pace: number of possessions) is the seventh.
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These are not numbers to brag about, but there is a lot left and Sergio Scariolo insists he has a plan. It will be a matter of seeing if this finally materializes before making a definitive judgment with everything important (Cup, League, Euroleague) still to be resolved. Real Madrid plays worse than expected, for now, and loses more than could be expectedbut Scariolo asks for time. And calm: “We are a very new team. Half of the squad is new and so is the coaching staff. The competition is extremely demanding. We are clearly improving, more and more. I think we still need to grow in the coming weeks and months, but the trend is clearly positive. Sometimes we would like to speed up that process a littlebut things happen when they have to happen”. A ver if they happenfinally.
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