After four defeats in a row, the Atlanta Falcons currently still have a five percent chance of making it into the playoffs. Only nine teams in NFL history have managed to make the playoffs after a 3-6 start. In order to keep this dream alive, the Falcons have to make some adjustments in the second half of the season. Falcons author Fabienne Lamp took another close look at the last games and found out for you: These are the construction sites that the Falcons have to clear up to get back to winning ways.
Since the beginning of the season, the offense has shown difficulty converting third downs into a new first down. Overall, the team led by head coach Raheem Morris was only able to convert 33.6 percent of third downs into four new attempts. During their ongoing losing streak, they only managed to do this eight times in 40 attempts. That’s just 20 percent – not enough for a team with playoff ambitions. In the NFL Berlin Game, the Falcons did not convert a third attempt into a new first down.
“Every third attempt has its own story,” offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said this week.
And there is a lot of truth in this sentence. No two moves are the same. The distances change and the field position is always different. A general solution to the Falcons’ third-down problem cannot be written down here. And yet similarities can be seen in the situations. Commonalities that need to be recognized and worked on for the remainder of the season. Because the problem actually starts earlier – on the offense’s first and second downs. The running game already often doesn’t gain enough yards to put the team in a viable position on the third attempt.
Of a total of 107 third downs in the 2025 season, 65 were downs with five yards or more to go for a new first attempt. On 49 of these 65 downs, the Falcons even had to gain seven or more yards in order to be able to keep their offense on the field. This creates pressure and forces quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to make passing plays. And he’s just playing his first real NFL season. It is these passes that too often are not caught by the intended receiver. Or can be caught.
The Falcons will therefore have to gain more yards on the first two downs in the coming games in order to be in a more comfortable position on third down. And yet the third attempts must also be more successful in the future in order to get the desired result, which should read “touchdown” and not “punt” at the end of the drive.
Another building block for a successful Falcons offense is the pocket awareness of the young quarterback. The offensive line does a good job protecting Michael Penix Jr. from the opposing pass rush. After ten weeks and nine games, the O-line has only allowed 14 quarterback sacks and regularly gives the signal caller enough time to get the ball to the receivers. But in recent weeks, Penix Jr. seems to hold the ball too long before trying to pass it on. Against the Colts, the signal caller showed a tendency to hold the ball longer than normal. According to Next Gen Stats, he recorded an average throwing time of 3.36 seconds. It was the first game of his career in which he averaged a throw time of over three seconds. And yet he didn’t necessarily move outside the pocket seven times, was impressed by the pass rush and allowed himself to be forced into errors in the form of inaccurate throws. If Penix Jr. manages to stay calmer in the future and give his offensive line the trust it deserves, he can achieve better success, especially through the connection to wide receiver Drake London.
Morris emphasized several times this season that the Falcons’ running game was the crucial component of the offense. This is also reflected in the statistics: in the three wins, the team averaged 185.3 rushing yards. And yet, since the win against the Buffalo Bills, there seems to have been a bit of a worm. Opposing defenses often manage to limit the running game around running back Bijan Robinson. Tyler Allgeier, on the other hand, has been on the rise for a few weeks now and has already scored six rushing touchdowns for Atlanta this season, although he only ran for 270 yards. The running back reached the end zone twice in the game against the Colts. The Falcons need to find a way to get both backs back into the game consistently, which would also help with the third-down problem.
It’s not just the offense that’s called upon to break the losing streak. The Falcons defense is one of the best in the league this year. The passing defense is currently ranked first, allowing an average of just 162.3 passing yards and allowing 14 passing touchdowns in nine games. Atlanta’s pass rush brought the opposing quarterback to the ground with a sack 29 times and thus managed to end plays early. At the same time, the rushing defense is the construction site of the defense. 29th place in the ranking – that might not be what defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich wants for the team. Atlanta’s defense has to stop the run, as many teams are starting to incorporate the run game more into their offense. Inside zone runs in particular are proving to be a weakness for the Falcons.
If the Falcons manage to implement the points mentioned above consistently and, above all, consistently, there shouldn’t be much standing in the way of their success – also with a view to the rest of the game plan. Despite their difficulties, the team regularly scores around 19 points per game on average. In the last eight games, Atlanta will face the New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams twice in addition to the Carolina Panthers next Sunday.
