Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)Doha, the quiet capital of Qatar, is usually known for its public safety and unpolitical shopping centers. That is why the panic scenes on Monday, after Iran launched more than a dozen missiles against a American military base near the city, were completely unpublished for its inhabitants. The interception salves that collided with the missiles and exploded in the air were visible from The Pearl Island, an artificial island full of luxury apartments. The buyers of the Villaggio mall heard strong explosions, called and ran to take refuge.
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Lynus Yim, a 22 -year -old Hong Kong tourist visiting the mall, said he had thought he was a terrorist attack until he left and saw the missiles. “I thought it might not survive, because it had never been in a situation like that,” he explained on the phone the day after the attacks. The operation had been previously announced by Iran, and there were no fatalities. However, the attack in response to the American bombing of Sunday Iranian nuclear facilities was a nightmare for Persian Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.
Despite the years of efforts to establish bridges with Iran, gain the favor of President Trump and consolidate his capitals as stable and attractive business refuges in a Volatile Middle East, these states have been dragged into a conflict they had tried to avoid. This places golf in a really uncomfortable position, says Dina Espandiary, a specialist in the Middle East Geoeconomics for Economic Bloomberg. “Their worst fear has come true: they have been trapped in the middle of a climb between Iran and the USA.”
Emergency Meeting
Foreign ministers in the six countries met in Doha on Tuesday at an emergency meeting to discuss the attack. All six depend on the United States as a guarantor of their safety, and host tens of thousands of American military and various US bases. Saddam Hussein in 1990 has been no war in Gulf lands since the Kuwait invasion of Saddam Hussein. Its governments have grown a security image to attract tourism and international investment. However, the Gulf monarchies have feared for years the threats of Iran, and have tried to counteract them while maintaining relationships with the Persian neighbor.
Qatar and Oman have a particularly cordial relationship with Tehran. Following the attack, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke to Qatar’s emir, and expressed his “repentance”, according to Prime Minister Qatarian, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, at a press conference on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have more tense relationships with Iran and even broke diplomatic relations in 2016. Emirates have a particularly complex position: despite being wary of Tehran’s threat, it is one of its main commercial partners. These tensions have caused clashes, such as Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the emirates launched an aerial aerial campaign against Huthi Militia, with the support of Iran, during the 2010s.
Gulf states fear that Iran will get a nuclear weapon, although they have requested that this threat to diplomatic and non -military means. There is also a sectarian dimension in this division: many of the Gulf monarchies are Sunnites and are wary of the fact that Shiite Iran can export their revolutionary ideology to its Shiite citizens to cause instability. “We have lived next to Iran for years, for centuries,” says Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a emiratian political scientist. “We know how difficult Iran is difficult.”
Last week, during a meeting between Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Emirates with a Bipartisan Delegation of the U.S. Congress, they said that one of their main concerns was that Iran’s support could attack American forces deployed in their countries, according to Congressman Jimmy Panetta, Democratic California. This stage would put the U.S. military presence in the region – a critical question among the local population – and would turn the area into a “stage or pawn for these tensions,” adds Espandiary.
Washington still moves the pieces
With the help of American defense systems, all missiles launched against Qatar less were intercepted. Hours later, the Emirate announced that Donald Trump had helped to negotiate a fire between Iran and Israel. “We hope that this question is contained as soon as possible and that this chapter is behind,” said Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed during the press conference. But the attack revealed the vulnerability of golf countries, despite their wealth and security ties with the USA. The alert sirens rang in Bahrain and the Aerial Space of Dubai – one of the largest aviation centers in the world – was closed. “We had been warning that this scenario had been possible for decades, and that it had to be avoided,” says Bader Al-Saif, a history professor at Kuwait University.
The attack on Al-Mudeid’s military base, in Qatar, revived the memory of the 2019 drone attack on Saudi energy facilities, also attributed to Iran, who left half of the Kingdom oil production out of play for a few days. That episode, during Trump’s first term, is often quoted by Saudi authorities, such as the time they understood that American protection had limits, and that it was necessary to approach Tehran diplomatically. Relations between the countries were restored in 2023.
The Emirates and Bahrain have also improved their relationships with Iran, and it is unlikely that the attack on Qatar brakes this approach. “Getting closer to Iran, whatever, is politics, strategy and future course,” says Abdulla. At the same time, the attack has highlighted the dependence on the countries of the Gulf of the United States – a dependence on which its leaders do not feel completely comfortable.
Only a few years ago, Saudi and Emiratian leaders spoke of a multi-oak world and the need to develop a more independent foreign policy, foreseeing a US retirement from the Middle East. It is now clear that the U.S. is “in the region again and in the most forceful way possible – Abdulla: I think we are trapped in a unipolar world. There are emerging powers competitors, but it is still Washington who moves the pieces.”
