Expectations are an ever-present part of the NFL offseason, and optimism can sometimes grow too large.
For some franchises, a free-agent signing or top draft pick may have resulted in some excessive hype. Elsewhere, a major departure—or, more accurately, several of them—has stung recent playoff teams, yet it seems to not be accounted for in projections.
Naturally, a list of this nature is subjective. There is no perfect way to analyze a roster in May, given the volatility due to possible trades, cuts, injuries and other changes before Week 1 arrives in September.
However, all teams included hold +1700 odds or shorter to win their respective conference at DraftKings.
Kirk Cousins Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
NFC Title Odds: +1100 (sixth in NFC)
The good news for the Atlanta Falcons is obvious: Provided his recovery from an Achilles injury goes as hoped, Kirk Cousins will stabilize an offense that desperately needs it.
Atlanta’s win total is listed at 9.5. Between a mediocre NFC South and a seemingly soft schedule, a 10-win season is truly possible.
But that friendly slate simultaneously looms as a January obstacle.
Right now, it appears the Falcons’ toughest road game is the Philadelphia Eagles. After that, it’s maybe the Minnesota Vikings—you know, the team replacing Cousins—or Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Either way, it’s hardly a gauntlet, and winning on the road is only more difficult in the playoffs.
This likelihood of success is more a product of favorable context than Cousins suddenly making Atlanta a real contender.
Josh Allen Kathryn Riley/Getty Images
AFC Title Odds: +700 (T-third in AFC)
As long as the Buffalo Bills have an in-prime Josh Allen, they deserve to be respected in preseason conversations.
Buffalo will probably reach the playoffs for the sixth straight year, perhaps even thanks to a fifth consecutive AFC East title. Aaron Rodgers is no sure thing following his Achilles injury, and Tua Tagovailoa has much to prove against top opponents. Leaping aboard bandwagons for the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins, respectively, is just as risky.
There is, nevertheless, a fair distinction to make. It’s hard to believe the Bills are actually a high-end AFC threat.
I’ve been wrong plenty often before and could be here, too. But if Buffalo didn’t win a conference title recently, how is that going to happen in 2024 after releasing or not re-signing a handful of veteran defenders and doing little to bolster the unit in free agency? Stefon Diggs’ departure leaves a massive void at receiver that rookie Keon Coleman cannot be expected to fill immediately.
Seeing the Bills fall short of the Divisional Round wouldn’t be a surprise.
Caleb Williams Michael Reaves/Getty Images
NFC Title Odds: +1400 (seventh in NFC)
Ryan Poles has executed a smart plan since taking over as the Chicago Bears’ general manager. He cleared out the cap sheet, then reshaped the franchise’s future in a 2023 trade with the Carolina Panthers.
Still, it feels like the hype is coming one year early.
Chicago dealt Justin Fields to clear the path for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, brought in veteran wideout Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze. The offense, with no hesitation, is better on paper. Combine that with the defense’s encouraging finish to the 2023 campaign, and the rising expectations are rationale.
The problem is Chicago must navigate a division with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. Taking on the NFC West likely won’t help the Bears in wild-card tiebreakers, and last year’s defensive surge coincided with playing four of the NFL’s worst offenses.
Chicago is trending the right direction, but bracing for a fourth straight year outside of the postseason would be wise.
Dak Prescott Perry Knotts/Getty Images
NFC Title Odds: +700 (T-third in NFC)
At the end of the regular season, the Dallas Cowboys will be sporting double-digit wins and conceivably an NFC East title.
And then, as is tradition, they’ll quickly lose in the playoffs.
I’ll be the first person to agree that one-game samples can be wild. Maybe, just maybe, this is the season where the postseason bounces go the Cowboys’ way again, and the franchise’s 29-year drought of advancing past the Divisional Round will finally end.
Honestly, though, why expect it? Dallas has practically done nothing in free agency and is placing an awful lot of trust in rookies to restock the offensive and defensive lines.
The reality is the Cowboys have a greater chance of helping you win a fantasy football title than playing for an NFC championship—let alone a Super Bowl.
Jim Harbaugh Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
AFC Title Odds: +1700 (eighth in AFC)
After watching Jim Harbaugh win at any level during the last two decades, buying into his long-term vision with the Los Angeles Chargers is painless.
However, let’s pump the brakes on a sharp rise in 2024.
Years of aggressive cap decisions have placed the Chargers in a rebuild. Most notably, they released Mike Williams and traded Keenan Allen, didn’t re-sign Austin Ekeler and lost a handful of starting defenders. The transition to a Harbaugh-style roster will take time.
If you’re looking for a bright side, the AFC West plays the AFC South and NFC South—arguably the worst two divisions in the NFL—this season. Los Angeles can take advantage of those matchups.
Relative to the league’s best teams, though, the retooling Chargers are facing an enormous uphill battle.
2024-05-12 12:48:38
#Overrated #NFL #Teams #Heading #Season
