by Marco Calabresi
How Jannik Sinner’s race to first place in the ATP rankings changes after Novak Djokovic’s elimination at the Rome Internationals
With Novak Djokovic out surprisingly against Chilean Alejandro Tabilo, the calculator turned back on. Two weeks before the start of Roland Garros, Jannik Sinner – struggling with recovery from a hip injury – is not guaranteed to be at the start of the second Slam of the season, but the Serbian’s premature exit in Rome could give the Italian the top of the rankings even without taking the field.
The date to be circled in red on the calendar is Monday 10 June, the day on which the ranking will be updated after the end of Roland Garros. The final calculations will be made there, but everything will be decided beforehand, based on the results of Nole and Daniil Medvedev, the third wheel of this mathematical exercise.
Sinner number 1 when? The combinations
Djokovic, before entering the court in Paris, will have to discard the 2,000 points resulting from last year’s victory: today he is at 9,860, which will therefore become 7,860. Sinner, however, today has 8,770 points, and will only have to discard 45, having lost in the second round last year against the German Daniel Altmaier (not playing at the Foro Italico, Sinner discarded 90 points, last year he went out in the round of 16 against the Argentine Cerundolo). With 8,725 points, therefore, Sinner will start Roland Garros virtually as number 1, but then the tournament will have to be played, with or without him. Jannik will therefore start with an advantage of 865 points, which can only be filled by arriving in the final (which awards 1,200 points) or, obviously, by winning the tournament (which awards 2,000 points). Therefore, it would not be enough for Djokovic to reach the semifinals (720 points) to hold on to first place. All this, without seeing Sinner in Paris. In order not to depend on the misfortunes of others, Jannik would instead need to at least reach the final, even if Djokovic was on the other side of the net and regardless of the result of the match on Sunday 9 June.
But watch out for Medvedev
But there is also the variable Daniil Medvedev, the highest-ranked player who remained at the Foro Italico after Djokovic’s defeat and the resignations of Sinner and Alcaraz. The Russian, currently number 4, can still defend the 1,000 points won by beating Holger Rune in the 2023 final, but then he will have to earn 2,000 points in Paris. It would be enough for Medvedev, so to speak, to reach the final of the Internationals (it would guarantee 600 points, therefore a difference of 400 compared to 12 months ago), but he cannot escape the victory at Roland Garros. With Sinner at least in the semi-final in Paris, however, the calculator will also be able to turn off in the comparison with the Russian.
May 12, 2024 (modified May 12, 2024 | 7:44 pm)
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2024-05-12 16:22:00
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