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Our prediction for Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football, Tuesday, 5/28/2024

πŸ“… 28/5/2024
19:00 Argentinos Juniors
1.34
X
4.75 National Football
8.02

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football:

πŸ‘Ž Hmmm…what a shame! We don’t have any positive Expected Value predictions for Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football

Some important points for the prediction on Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Argentinos Jrs, in each of their last 5 home matches, you would have made a profit of $399.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Nacional De Football, in each of its last 5 away matches, you would have made a profit of $190.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 away matches, Nacional De Football scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ Nacional De Football is a very unpleasant visitor: it has 4 consecutive victories in its last matches playing away from home.

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Analysis of Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football for the Copa Sulamericana – May 28

🏟️ Argentinos Jrs X Nacional De Football – Copa Sulamericana
πŸ“… May 28, 2024 – 7:00 pm
πŸ”΅ Argentinos Jrs – Probability of victory: 72.90% | Fair odds: 1.37
βšͺ Draw – Probability of draw: 16.78% | Fair odds: 5.96
πŸ”΄ Nacional De Football – Probability of victory: 10.32% | Fair odds: 9.69
βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.75 Argentinos Jrs
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
β›³ Expected corners: 9.75 corners

A good bettor is not one who has a high hit rate, but rather one who bets on events with a positive expected value. Our model knows this very well and looked for these opportunities for the match between Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football.

And to do so, the algorithm analyzed more than 1125546 matches from our platform’s database football predictions, Betfellows, in search of patterns to arrive at the odds of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a draw or even a victory for the visitor. Arriving, then, at these values:

Predictions for the Match Odds market on Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football

Should you bet on Argentinos Jrs?

πŸ”΅ Argentinos Jrs: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 72.9% and we know that the average odds offered by the houses are 1.34. That is, when carrying out 1000 bets of R$1 like this, you:

  • You would get it right 730 times – that would give you a profit of R$248.20
  • And I would lose another 270 times – with a loss of -R$270.00 each time.

So, mathematically, it is a negative expected value bet, as you would have a final expected loss of πŸ’°-R$21.80.

Should you bet on a Draw?

βšͺ A tie: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.78% and we know that the average odds offered by the houses are 4.75. That is, when carrying out 1000 bets of R$1 like this, you:

  • I would get it right 170 times – profiting R$637.50;
  • And I would lose another 830 times – losing -R$830.00 with them.

So, mathematically, it is a negative expected value bet, as you would have a final expected loss of πŸ’°-R$192.50.

Does betting on Nacional De Football have value?

πŸ”΄ National Football: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.32% and we know that the average odds offered by the houses are 8.02. In other words, this means that if you did 1000 bets of R$1 equal to this, you:

  • He would have been right 100 times – making a profit of R$702.00;
  • And I would lose another 900 times – having a loss of -R$900.00 in them.

So, mathematically, it is a negative expected value bet, as you would have a final expected loss of πŸ’°-R$198.00.

Analysis of handicaps for the match Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football

Another approach is to seek to find the fair handicap for the main markets, and our machine learning model will also help us with this. Maybe you have no idea what that is. If handicap is a big deal for you, just click here on our article about Asian handicap in football betting and you will find complete content that will teach you how it works today. Click on the link now to leave it in another tab and read it later.

Let’s go ahead and see what the model has in store for these markets here:

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.75 Argentinos Jrs
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Predictions for the 1Γ—2 Handicap market in Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: According to our model calculations, the main handicap should be -0.75 Argentinos Jrsand the current handicap offered by bookmakers is 0.0 Argentinos Jrs.

As the difference between the handicap we calculated and the one offered by the house is -0.75this means that the best bet for the 1Γ—2 Handicap is: 0.0 Argentinos Jrs.

Predictions for the Goals Handicap market in Argentinos Jrs x Nacional De Football

⚽ Goals Handicap: Our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 Goals and the available handicap to bet on at that moment is 2.50 Goals.

As the difference between the handicap we calculated and the one offered by the house is 0.75this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is: + 2.50 Goals.

2024-05-26 21:57:44
#Predictions #Argentinos #Jrs #Nacional #Football #28th #Copa #Sulamericana #Clube #Aposta

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