Good news: We know the Washington Commanders will make the selection at No. 2. That means we can stop pondering the validity of rumors surrounding which quarterback they select.
Like the coaching search, the Commanders aren’t sharing their hopes and dreams in loud or even hushed tones. In last week’s news conference, general manager Adam Peters stated that “we’re real close” on the decision at two. The final details, including medical updates, will be discussed before the draft arrives. The inclusive GM, with coach Dan Quinn, “will huddle up and probably have an answer draft week.”
“I will say this also,” Peters continued, “you don’t really need to make a decision until you need to make a decision.”
My time has run out. Here’s one final mock draft (though I can’t predict what happens on the “Standig Room Only” podcast). Since Washington is positioned for trades — nine picks, including six in the top 100 — this final attempt comprises one deal. The no-frills version at the bottom will not.
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The flip to the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner began in early March, soon after Washington native Caleb Williams moved into essentially lock territory as the No. 1 overall selection by the Chicago Bears. The reasons for putting Daniels at No. 2 several weeks ago remain (unless last week’s local quarterback outing gave Washington a reason to look elsewhere). The 2023 production — 40 touchdown passes, four interceptions, 3,812 passing yards and 1,134 rushing yards — demonstrated unbelievable improvement.
The 6-foot-3 quarterback has the size to work from the pocket, and “his dazzling run skills make him a problem for defenses,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote in his NFL Draft guide. The high pressure-to-sack rate is concerningand the 210-pounder must become better at taking on thumping hits. There are compelling cases for Drake Maye, including familiarity with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s “Air Raid” scheme, and J.J. McCarthy (highly efficient, clutch throws). Brugler is among several public evaluators who prefer Maye over Daniels.
If Peters isn’t as concerned about purported mechanical flaws, covets a more traditional pocket passer who can move, and is fine with a potential redshirt rookie season, Maye is the choice. Should the organization seek an experienced (53 college starts) dual-threat quarterback who stresses defenses on every play, then get ready to buy those Daniels jerseys.
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Commanders NFL Draft 2024 guide: Picks, predictions and key needs
Round 2, No. 36 — Trade
Washington moves picks 36 and 152 to Atlanta for Nos. 43 and 109 and a 2025 second-rounder
You were hoping for a trade here, but heading in the other direction. We’ve been there this mock draft cycle. Circumstances haven’t necessarily changed. My curiosity has.
The mock draft world has Washington trading into the back part of the first round. That’s logical with the quarterback investment and the limited upside/consistency with in-house options. However …
• Projections put seven to nine tackles in Round 1 (depending on how teams/evaluators classify prospects positionally). Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton, Brugler’s No. 5 and 6 tackles, respectively, could be gone by pick No. 25 (though I’m not ruling out a Guyton slide) since roughly half the league is seeking tackle help. Moving 11-19 spots for a player with a fifth-year contract option gets costly.
• There’s an assumption that selecting one of these tackles means they start immediately/soon. Perhaps, but Mims started eight total games at Georgia. Guyton’s resume has 15 career starts, and “lack of experience is evident,” Brugler wrote in the draft preview.
• That’s a risky proposition for helping a rookie quarterback (though trading with Miami at No. 21 is worth exploring if the hulking Mims remains available). If the tackles won’t be ready, is forcing a trade-up worth the picks when they can select one in 2025?
As for trading, Peters agreed with assistant GM Lance Newmark’s “situational” comment earlier in the news conference. “There are times where somebody is really jumping out at you as being available,” Newmark said, “and there are times where you’re like, ‘Man, nothing feels right here.’ And it might make more sense to go back and take some extra swings later.”
Two other college tackles, Troy Fautanu and Jordan Morgan, are considered guards by Brugler and some teams. Morgan, Brugler’s No. 2 guard and 29th-ranked prospect, is dinged by some for short arms. Selecting the college left tackle for the same role only to make him a guard like Brandon Scherff and Sam Cosmi is one thing. Trading up and then shifting him inside is another.
Washington had several “30” visits with tackles in Brugler’s second-to-fourth-round range but, as far as we know, only brought in Morgan among the higher-ranked (should they label him one) tackles. Putting aside any trade thought for San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, this board puts me into the “best player available” mindset (within reason) at No. 36. Acquiring a future second plus an extra third in the trade matches that vibe.
Round 2, No. 40 — Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington
Go for the ceiling (Houston’s Patrick Paul and his 86 1/4-inch wingspan) or a durable grinder who ran the fastest 40 time (4.92) for any O-line prospect at the NFL combine? Rosengarten started all 28 games for the Huskies the past two seasons at right tackle. The 6-foot-5, 308-pounder moved from left tackle once southpaw Michael Penix Jr. became the starter. Some league evaluators have an early-to-mid-Round 2 projection for the versatile lineman.
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Round 2, No. 43 (from Falcons) — Marshawn Kneeland, DE, Western Michigan
Brugler’s No. 32 prospect steadily rose on public big boards as teams studied the lengthy and heavy-handed Kneeland. The thinking here is to focus less on the college production (13 career sacks in 37 games/23 starts) and more on the potential upside in Washington’s current rotation. “Kneeland is still taking classes in the art of the pass rush … He projects as a starting base end whose best football is yet to come,” Brugler wrote.
Round 3, No. 67 — Blake Fisher, OT, Notre Dame
This is a double-up selection. The question is whether that’s an edge rusher (Chris Braswell, Austin Booker, Bralen Trice) to complement Kneeland’s more traditional 4-3 D-end style or another tackle to develop as Andrew Wylie’s possible right tackle replacement in 2025.
Fisher, 21, became the first freshman offensive lineman to start a Notre Dame season opener in 15 years before suffering a knee injury in the game and being replaced by projected top-10 selection Joe Alt. The 6-foot-5, 310-pounder started 25 games at right tackle his next two seasons.
Round 3, No. 78 — Mekhi Wingo, DT, LSU
Peters said with more picks, “you have more swings” at prospects. Here, that notion means taking a semi-luxury pick in 2024, with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne starting. However, Allen’s massive 2025 salary-cap number could eventually lead to changes without an extension. The 284-pound Wingo ranked first among tackles in the 10-yard split (1.64) at the combine. The team captain had 4 1/2 sacks in eight games last season.
Mekhi Wingo had 4 1/2 sacks and five tackles for loss in eight games for LSU last season. (Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
Round 3, No. 100 — Zak Zinter, G, Michigan
Washington takes a third offensive lineman — and a flyer on the two-time first-team All-Big Ten selection and team captain coming off a significant left leg injury. Zinter’s pre-injury first-round hype (42 career starts) means waiting is no issue for a team playing the long game. The Commanders signed Nick Allegretti in free agency.
Round 4, No. 109 (from Falcons) — Brenden Rice, WR, USC
Washington hasn’t adequately replaced the loss of free agent Curtis Samuel, and the position lacks size. It also has largely ignored receivers this cycle. Could that mean Peters or others have a target in mind? Jerry’s son is a 6-foot-2 target with 4.5 40-yard dash speed who spent 2023 with Kingsbury at USC.
Round 5, 139 — Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College
The 6-foot-1 corner with sub-4.5 40-yard speed paced the ACC with five interceptions and added eight pass deflections despite missing the final four games with a non-injury designation. Brugler mentions “undisciplined tendencies” but sees a cornerback with “man-to-man athletic tools that will interest press-heavy teams.”
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Round 7, No. 222 — Tyrice Knight, LB, UTEP
This would be needed linebacker depth should Knight last this long. Tying Edgerrin Cooper for the fastest linebacker 10-yard split (1.54) at the combine after finishing second in the FBS in solo tackles (84) gives him the edge over UCLA’s Darius Muasau despite his two years with Washington’s new linebackers coach Ken Norton Jr.
No trade (semi-best player available) version
No. 2 — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
No. 36 — Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
No. 40 — Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington
No. 67 — Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama
No. 78 — Jared Wiley, TE, TCU
No. 100 — Cam Hart, CB, Notre Dame
No. 139 — Brandon Coleman, G/T, TCU
No. 152 — Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice
No. 222 — Beanie Bishop, CB, West Virginia
(Top photos of Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye: Denny Medley, Nell Redmond / USA Today)
2024-04-22 17:25:41
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