Image credit: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The situation: Jackson Holliday went to work playing second base for a couple of weeks, posting a 1.096 OPS with more walks than strikeouts in the process, and now he’s sneaking onto the Major League roster just in time to be eligible. for the promotion selection incentive.
Background: Jackson, the son of Hall of Fame outfielder Matt Holliday, was a well-known prep prospect heading into the 2022 draft. Likely a first-rounder who came off the exhibition circuit before his senior year of high school, he continued to rise up the ranks. draft and ultimately went first overall to the Orioles. The pick was perhaps a slight surprise given the other high-level high school hitters in that class, but Holliday quickly proved himself to be the best prospect of the group. He showed elite swing decisions and a little more juice in his bat than one would have expected that first professional summer and subsequently landed in ninth place overall in the Top 101. Somehow, that was only good for third place in an absolutely stacked Orioles system. Holliday stormed the minors in 2023, reaching Triple-A. In total, the 19-year-old slashed .323/.442/.499 in his four minor league stops. The whiff and approach data got a little worse after each promotion, but he was a relatively easy pick for baseball’s best prospect both midseason and heading into 2024, as a teenager capable of playing a premium position who hit in the upper classes of the minor leagues. Holliday had a strong spring training, but had to spend nine games tearing the cover off the ball in Norfolk before he was finally promoted to the big club, just months after his 20th birthday.
Scouts report: If Holliday isn’t the most complete prospect in baseball, he’s not far off. He is also a top hitting prospect for the Orioles. Of course, Holliday had all the traits that Baltimore has developed strongly from day one, but he has been a great fit for both the player and the organization. In the 2023 season, his contact rate in the zone eroded as he rose through the minors, and he also became a little more expansive at each stop, but he will make a lot of hard, optimized contact and won’t chase as much . Holliday got stronger in each of the last two off seasons, as expected from a teenager just entering professional baseball, and has been tearing up the ball in Triple-A so far in 2024. The data His swing and batted ball skills look very similar to Gunnar Henderson’s today, although Holliday doesn’t consistently lift as effectively as his future double-play partner. At least not yet.
His swing is not classically pretty, but it is very effective in the modern game. Holliday steps toward the bucket a bit, allowing him to clear his hips and really break balls toward the pull side. There is some length in his swing path and he can load his hands on a nearby armbar, but his barrel control doesn’t suffer much and he can adjust in the zone to speed changes. He has more than enough bat speed to handle (and damage) the Major League baseball, and while he currently hits a lot more for contact than power, I wouldn’t be surprised if he posted some career 30-homer seasons since the middle of his career. twenties until the end of that decade of age. Holliday has sacrificed some contact ability since that first pro summer, but the trade-off has been a lot more contact damage and his swing decisions are at least plus-plus. He can be a little passive at times, although that has been less of an issue in the upper minors, and that’s something to at least pay attention to in his first go-round in the majors.
Defensively, Holliday can play shortstop, but primarily played second base at Norfolk in deference to Henderson. He is an excellent, rangy runner, but his stock and arm are fine for the No. 6 position. He will likely see some time at both middle infield spots and should be an above-average second baseman. The defensive and baserunning value is gilding the lily a bit, but it’s one of the reasons Holliday edged out Wyatt Langford and Junior Caminero for the No. 1 spot this past offseason.
Immediate future in the Major Leagues: Holliday is the best prospect in baseball. He is ready for the majors. He simply writes his name near the top of his lineup every day in ink and let him make any necessary adjustments. He may need to adjust to the big league strike zones. He may not get full power in games anytime soon. And yes, he may strike out a little more than you initially expect. But Holliday is capable of winning the American League Rookie of the Year award even after giving the field a 10-game lead. —Jeffrey Paternostro
Impact on fantasy teams: Every time baseball’s best prospect is called up to the Major Leagues, there is a significant fantasy impact. He was the 20th shortstop drafted overall in NFBC leagues (around an ADP of 188), which means he’s probably already in your league…whether he runs a 15- or 10-team team. (ESPN basic leagues, what are you doing?) So we’ll start this section assuming you really need to go out and get it, rather than relying on the FAAB or the waiver wire or the fastest finger in your league.
If you think you’ll be successful right out of the gate, it’s probably due to a collection of above-average traits rather than one great tool that’s significantly superior to the rest. He already has eligibility at shortstop, but will move to second base fairly quickly. With his chance to do significant damage on contact while doing so consistently, there should be double-digit home runs and an average AVG. He can rack up at least a handful of stolen bases, but there’s no sign yet if the Orioles will let him run wild or where they’ll slot him in the order. And contextual statistics will also depend on that; If he moves into Henderson’s leadoff spot (unlikely at first), he’ll be a run-scoring machine, but if he’s filling Jordan Westburg’s or Ramon Urias’ lineup spot, in addition to being the home defensive player, then he’s less likely to produce a ton of runs scored or runs batted in. And will he really play every day, or will he be in some kind of strong-side platoon timeshare with one of those two to start? PECOTA’s projection is modest…
It is for all these reasons that I am less inclined to become a YOLO (You Only Live Once) and trade the farm for a prospect like Holliday, even though he admits he has fantasy rock star potential. Wyatt Langford is just as advanced a hitter, if not more so, but he hasn’t fully adapted to the league in a position even more primed to succeed. I think the best-case scenario for Holliday is a line that looks a lot like Matt McLain’s in 2023: steals and home runs hovering around the 15 mark, an excellent collection of contextual stats, and a batting average that’s largely dependent on players. whims. of destiny, but it won’t drag you down. McLain finished where, in the teens-20s in last year’s 2B and SS rankings? That’s nothing to sneeze at, but I’m not going to trade a top-line starter or my OF2 for Holliday in a re-draft league.
Of course, in Dynasty you can go completely crazy and trade whoever you want for him; I’m not sure Bobby Witt Jr. is a fair competition, but he could easily live at a long-term fantasy level, a bit below the most optimized middle infielders in the game. It’s hard to manage the expectations of such a shocking prospect… and there have already been more than a few whom you’ve had to judge carefully before reaching the middle of April… but it might be wise to classify Holliday as more of a solid contributor than the guy that will make you an ace in your league. — Bryan Grosnick
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2024-04-11 11:08:26
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