The NFL Draft is steadily approaching and the Las Vegas Raiders will be on the clock before you know it. So, we’re focusing on the draft for this week’s mailbag.
Question: Matt, I think the Raiders are going to go with an offensive lineman at 13. Who would you pick between Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham, Amarius Mims, Troy Fautanu or Olumuyiwa Fashanu?
Answer: My pick would be Latham. In my opinion, he’s the most well-rounded player of the bunch with the feet to hold up in pass protection and the size and strength to be a mauler in the run game. Plus, he just turned 21 so he’s young and has the potential to continue getting better.
Fuaga would be a close second though and I wouldn’t be mad if they took him over Latham. Fuaga is the better run-blocker, I just worry about him in pass protection and think the Raiders wouldn’t be sacrificing too much in the ground game with Latham.
Fashanu is more of a left tackle prospect because he’s really good in pass protection but isn’t a devastating run blocker who doesn’t finish his blocks, which would go against the brand of football Antonio Pierce has been talking about. Mims and Fautanu would be better targets if Las Vegas trades back, in my opinion.
Q: Regarding the need for cornerbacks, do you think the Raiders will take one high in the draft, or draft a couple in the latter rounds plus sign a veteran?
A: The Raiders don’t need depth at cornerback, they need an elite talent to fill the CB1 role. So, I’d be kind of surprised if they spent multiple picks at the position unless someone they like ends up sliding and falling into their laps later in the draft, or something along those lines. For example and hypothetically speaking, they take a corner in the first round and then a guy they had a second-round grade on ends up being available in the fourth.
To answer the first part of the question, the quarterback situation really throws a wrench into how they approach the entire draft, especially in the first round. I could see them taking Terrion Arnold at 13, but if they want to ensure they get someone at the most important position on the field, obviously, then Arnold is off the table.
Terrion Arnold
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
With that in mind, I kind of get the feeling the second or third round would be the sweet spot for a corner.
As far as a veteran goes, if either Stephon Gilmore or Steven Nelson are still available after the draft and the Raiders strike out in landing a cornerback, then the front office would likely pivot toward signing one of those two to a short-term deal.
Q: Based on how you see the first round unfolding, if the Raiders to stick to their board and draft the best player available (rather than reaching for a QB not really worth it at 13) who would you see them drafting at 13?
A: Latham or Arnold. Roll Tide, baby!
Q: Lots of talk about the Raiders drafting a tackle at 13 but no mention of filling the vacancy at right guard. If the Raiders draft a tackle at 13 or on Day 2, do you expect the Raiders to draft a guard on Day 2? Does Thayer Munford have prior experience at guard?
A: Yes, Munford was primarily a guard during his last year at Ohio State when Nicholas Petit-Frere (Titan’s 2022 third-round pick) and Dawand Jones (Browns’ 2023 fourth-round pick) were the starting tackles. Granted, Munford played left guard while Paris Johnson Jr. (Cardinals 2023 first-round pick) played right guard.
So, I’d expect Munford to slide inside if they take a tackle early. Also, he got reps at both positions during training camp as a rookie.
Taking a guard in the third round or later is still an option as well. Unless they think really highly of Jordan Meredith, they need some backup options at the least.
Q: Give us a sleeper on your wishlist.
A: I know linebacker isn’t an immediate need, but they have four guys whose contracts expire at the end of the season, so I would like to see Las Vegas target Tyrice Knight from UTEP in the fourth or fifth rounds. Knight is more under the radar as a small school prospect, but he has impressive instincts and is a decent athlete to develop into a complete backer. He was also very productive in 2023 with 140 total tackles15.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks and seven passes defended.
I’m also a fan of Florida State’s Johnny Wilson. He’s a big-bodied target at about 6-foot-6.5 and 231 pounds and also has decent speed to win down the field. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the NFL is higher on him and he gets drafted higher than most people expect. Keon Coleman stole the spotlight from Wilson this past season, so I think that’s why Wilson isn’t talked about as much in the media.
Q: From a positional standpoint, which Raiders’ draft of the past decade will most closely resemble this draft?
A: This is tough to answer because the quarterback situation makes this draft somewhat unique for the Raiders seeing as they had Derek Carr for nine years and then signed Jimmy Garoppolo last offseason. But, positionally, I’d probably say the 2018 draft class.
That was the year the Silver and Black took Kolton Miller with a pick in the teens and they drafted another offensive lineman, Brandon Parker, two rounds later. They also got a couple of depth pieces at defensive tackle in P.J. Hall and Maurice Hurst Jr., took a cornerback (Nick Nelson), a project linebacker (Azeem Victor) and a big wide receiver (Marcell Ateman).
A: Michael Penix Jr.’s efficiency numbers are kind of a mixed bag. Compared to the top six quarterbacks last season, he ranks third in ‘big-time’ throw rate at 9.7 percent, behind Jayden Daniels (11.3 percent) and J.J. McCarthy (10.6 percent), per Pro Football Focus. However, Penix also has the third-highest ‘turnover-worthy’ play rate at 4.1 percent while Caleb Williams (9.2 percent) and McCarthy (6.8 percent) top the list.
Penix’s best number under pressure is his pressure-to-sack rate at 7.6 percent which is second-best and nearly 10 points higher than McCarthy (16.8 percent) who is third. Bo Nix (6.3 percent) is the only one with a better figure, but Nix is also a checkdown guy under pressure as he has the lowest rate of BTTs (7.4 percent) and the lowest ADOT (8.8). For comparison, the former Husky led the six QBs with a 15.5 ADOT under pressure.
Michael Penix Jr.
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
I’d give your draft strategy a C-.
I don’t mind drafting an offensive tackle first, but taking a guard and running back that early would be a mistake, in my opinion. As mentioned above, if the Raiders get a tackle early, they can move Munford over to guard, and I’m not thrilled about the idea of spending a top-100 pick on a running back who would be the third or fourth player on the depth chart.
Also, the team would still need a top-end talent at cornerback and a quarterback. At best, Gardner Minshew is a stop-gap starter, and I’m not confident that Aidan O’Connell will be much more than a game manager throughout his career. The Raiders need an upgrade at quarterback if they’re going to compete with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
A: Defensive tackle, wide receiver, linebacker, running back and safety. All those positions could use depth and/or future starters since Las Vegas has older players or guys about to enter contract years at the top of the chart. Edge could be a sneaky one too with Malcolm Koonce’s situation, but that depends on what the plan is for Tyree Wilson.
A: I can’t speak for everyone, but I’ll share my thoughts on why.
Drake Maye is probably going to be a top-three pick. So, unless the Bears, Commanders or Patriots are willing to trade down — which it doesn’t seem like they are — the Raiders won’t have a shot at Maye. McCarthy is widely considered QB4 and would be a good fit in the Shanahan/McVay style of offense, which the Vikings run since Kevin O’Connell comes from that coaching tree. Minnesota picks ahead of Las Vegas and has an extra first-round pick for more trade ammunition.
So, that’s what leads me to believe that Penix will be the Raiders’ best option as he’s the next guy in line.
A: D.
Draft season is 365 days a year, 366 on leap years!
That’ll do it for this week’s mailbag. Thank you all for submitting questions and, as your weekly reminder, if you’d like to have your questions answered in a future column, tweet them at me, @MHolder95email them to [email protected] or look for our weekly call for questions on the site. The latter will continue to publish on Thursdays.
2024-04-13 20:01:00
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