Attempting to accurately predict the first round of an NFL Draft is an exercise in futility, because draft-day trades create more disruption than Laiatu Latu on the USC tape. My most accurate final mock draft came in 2021, when most of the major trades happened before draft weekend, making it easier to predict Round 1.
This year, the trade action is going to happen after the Commanders reveal which quarterback they want at No. 2. That will set off a domino effect that will determine what happens at picks 3, 4 and so on. The uncertainty, however, means it’s especially challenging to nail down a final mock this year.
Now that I’m done making excuses, here is my final guess at how the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft will play out (with some trades included).
Note: An asterisk before a pick indicates a projected trade in this mock.
No surprises at No. 1 this year — Williams will be a Chicago Bear.
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With a new owner, general manager and head coach, the Commanders regime is a collection of unknowns in terms of draft tendencies. But all the league buzz is pointing toward Daniels being the pick.
There are some teams around the league that believe J.J. McCarthy could be the guy here. But I’m sticking with Maye. Could a last-minute trade offer sway the Patriots to move back? Never say never. But I think it will take blockbuster compensation to convince the Kraft family.
The phones will be ringing, and general manager Monti Ossenfort is ready to wheel and deal. The opportunity for the Cardinals to draft their next Larry Fitzgerald could win out here, though.
It feels like it’ll be a race between the Vikings and Broncos to nab the draft’s fourth quarterback. In this scenario, the Vikings win out and trade up with the Chargers to take McCarthy.
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You could make an easy case for either Odunze or Malik Nabers here, but which prospect will the Giants prefer? Odunze is the most well-rounded receiver in this class. He has size, speed, route-running prowess, ball skills and yards-after-catch ability.
If Nabers is still available (as he is in this scenario), it would be tough to pass him up. But the Titans could have a chance to stabilize their offensive line with the top blocker in the draft.
For a team like the Jets that’s looking to add an offensive playmaker, moving up two spots for a player the caliber of Nabers would make a ton of sense. A starting three of Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Nabers? That’d be tough to stop.
If the top three receivers come off the board in the first eight picks, the Bears would become much more of a wild card at No. 9. Murphy might not have desired size, but he’d be a scheme fit, and he’s consistently disruptive versus pass and run.
10. Atlanta Falcons (from NYJ)*: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
The Falcons might find themselves in a power position at No. 8, which would allow them to trade back a few spots and still get the player they’d have taken at No. 8. Turner would give Atlanta an athletic edge rusher who can rush and play the run.
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Jim Harbaugh selecting the strongest player in the draft wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Latham could fill in at guard as a rookie until the Chargers need him at right tackle.
The Broncos are certainly eyeing quarterbacks in the first round. If they can’t move up, though, Bowers would be a great consolation prize and could make a quick impact for that offense.
At one point, the Raiders thought they potentially could trade back into Round 1 to get Penix. But with several other teams in the mix, they likely won’t be able to get cute.
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The Saints have a glaring need at tackle, and it won’t be surprising if they ultimately move up five spots or so in order to lock in their guy. The Penn State left tackle could be that target.
I wanted to project the Colts trading up to No. 8 for Nabers — and that shouldn’t be ruled out. But the more likely scenario is that they stay put and see if Bowers or one of the top corners falls to them.
This lined up perfectly for the Eagles to trade up and nab their right tackle of the future. Fuaga could provide immediate competition at guard before kicking over to right tackle, when needed, as the eventual successor to Lane Johnson.
Could Thomas last all the way to No. 28? Anything is possible, but Brandon Beane is an aggressive general manager and won’t be shy about moving up to secure his guy.
The Bengals always draft with the future in mind, and Mims has the talent to grow into a long-term right tackle. He wouldn’t be pressed into action from Day 1, but would likely play at some point as a rookie.
The Rams haven’t drafted in the first since since the Obama administration, so this is unfamiliar territory. But if Fautanu (and his five-position versatility) is still available at 19, the decision might be pretty easy.
The Steelers could be in the mix for a receiver here (like Thomas) or one of the tackles. However, it would be tough to pass on Barton, who’d be a plug-and-play center for an offensive line that needs to find stability.
The Dolphins are always looking for additional help getting after the quarterback, and Latu is one of the most skilled pass-rushing prospects in recent draft memory.
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In last year’s first round, the Seahawks selected the most competitive corner in the draft, Devon Witherspoon, who had twitch and ball production. They could do the same exact thing this year with Arnold.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (from MIN via CLE/HOU)*: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Yes, Worthy is a vertical threat, which would be fun to watch in an offense quarterbacked by Justin Herbert. But Worthy also can get open underneath and create explosives on overs and crossers. He’d fill the role that Roman Wilson played for Harbaugh in the 2023 Michigan offense.
If Fautanu or Barton makes it to this spot, I think that is who the Cowboys’ pick would be. Things would get interesting with both off the board, as they are here. A trade back certainly would be possible, but if Dallas were to stick and pick, Guyton has the talent to be viewed as a left tackle of the future.
A potential deal to keep an eye on at this spot: the Commanders trading picks 36 and 78 for 24 to get a tackle they covet. That move would allow the Cowboys to address center (Zach Frazier) or tackle (Kingsley Suamataia) at 36 and still have three more Day 2 picks to add young, inexpensive building blocks.
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As long as you are okay with the slender body type, Wiggins is an easy sell in the draft room. His fluid movements and top-end speed allow him to blanket different types of wide receivers.
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The Cardinals will be hunting pass-rush help and high-motor players, which would make Verse a perfect fit for Jonathan Gannon’s vision on defense.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (from BUF)*: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Cornerback is obviously high on the wish list for the Jaguars. Even if they trade out of the top 20, there should be several potential fits late in the first round, including McKinstry.
The Lions would love to add more disruption to the defensive line, and Newton could offer exactly that. He looked outstanding during his recent pro day, at which Detroit was well represented.
The Ravens drafting another Penn State edge rusher in the first round? Robinson has the best first step in this class and the upside of a pass rusher who can produce double-digit sacks.
Morgan would have the versatility to move inside to guard while also being the team’s eventual answer at left tackle whenever Trent Williams, who is entering his age-36 season, decides to hang ‘em up.
The Chiefs could go in a number of different directions here. Mitchell would be a great fit on the outside and give the offense a player with legitimate No. 1 potential down the road.
(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Photos of Joe Alt, Malik Nabers and Drake Maye: Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images; Kevin C. Cox, Brandon Sumrall / Getty Images)
2024-04-25 09:02:29
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