With the calendar turned to April, we are officially in “Draft Month”. To celebrate this blessed season I’m cranking out content centered on the Panthers recent draft history, the perils of trading up, the beauty of trading down, and slipping in another “BYU Homer” post telling the Panthers front office which former Cougar they should add to the roster.
Today we’re going to indulge my trade down fever dream.
But first, as the Benevolent Dictator of Trade Down Island, I demand you read TDI’s Constitution to give you context about my overall “trade down” philosophy. Do it! Now! That’s an order!
The TDI Constitution context helps. At a high level my belief is the NFL draft is merely educated guesswork, so more picks means a higher likelihood of success. If a potential Pro Bowler is available in Rounds 1-2, then take him! But if a virtual “sure thing” isn’t on the draft board, which is usually the case, then smartly trade down a few spots early to accumulate additional picks.
With that out of the way, let me adorn myself in my Trade Down Island dictator’s uniform (think Gilligan as an island ruler) and mandate what GM Dan Morgan should do on draft day.
My approach in the trade down scenarios shown below is to use actual, real-life draft day trades from 2023 that mirror the picks the Panthers currently possess. My assumption is similar deals will be available for Carolina’s front office this year as were available last year. Here we go:
Pick No. 33 – Draft the best offensive player available
Every year at least a couple of talented prospects with mid-first round draft grades unexpectedly slip into the second round. The focus early in the draft needs to remain on building a solid offense around Bryce Young. I’d suggest Dan Morgan and his staff land a quality wide receiver, tight end, or center at No. 33.
Pick No. 39 – Trade down to No. 44, pick up No. 115
2023 Comparable: The Indianapolis Colts traded No. 38 to the Atlanta Falcons for the No. 44 pick and No. 110 in the fourth round. Since the Panthers have No. 39 (one spot lower than the Colts No. 38), we’ll assume they can get No. 115 in return.
Moving down five spots in the second round in order to acquire an extra pick in the middle of the fourth round is the lifeblood of the Trade Down Island economy. At a high level, there is virtually no difference in the talent available at No. 39 versus No. 44. Unless the Panthers are passing on a potential Pro Bowler at No. 39, they should trade down a few spots and take another swing in the fourth round.
Pick No. 65 – Trade down to No. 68, pick up No. 195 and No. 235
2023 Comparable: The Philadelphia Eagles swapped the No. 62 pick to the Houston Texans for No. 65, No. 188, and No. 230. We’ll assume with the No. 65 pick the Panthers can get No. 195 (sixth round) and No. 235 (seventh round).
Will gaining extra picks in rounds six and seven alter the trajectory of the Panthers franchise? Probably not.
But will moving back from No. 62 to No. 65 hurt the Panthers? Absolutely not!
Look, if the Panthers are going to hit a home run at No. 62, they’re just as capable of hitting a home run at No. 65. The reverse logic holds true as well that if they were going to screw up the No. 62 pick, they’re probably going to screw up No. 65, too.
While picks in rounds six and seven rarely pan out, I’m all for scratching those lottery tickets. You never know when you can hit on another Harrison Butker (sigh), Captain Munnerlyn, Geoff Schwartz, Mackenzy Bernadeau, or Brock Purdy (just wanted to make sure you were still paying attention).
Dan Morgan should use the extra No. 235 pick to nab BYU tight end Isaac Rex, but more on that next week.
Pick No. 101 – Trade back for No. 115, pick up No. 170
2023 Comparable: The Chicago Bears traded the No. 103 pick in the fourth round to the New Orleans Saints for the No. 115 pick in the fourth round and No. 165 (fifth round). Since the Panthers hold No. 101, two spots below New Orleans pick, let’s assume they can get No. 170 in return.
This one is a no-brainer. There is zero difference in the quality of players available at No. 101 versus No. 115. Picking up a late fifth round pick in return for moving back 14 spots in the fourth round is like taking candy from a baby.
Your Benevolent Dictator’s trade down haul
To recap, if I was the Panthers general manager, on draft day I’d get dressed in my full Trade Down Island military-inspired uniform and start seeking trade down partners. The contracts of the new draft picks acquired in my brilliant plan are also provided with information taken from Spotrac to illustrate just how cheap these contracts are when compared to the NFL’s $255 million salary cap.
Traded down
- From No. 39 to No. 44 (five spots)
- From No. 65 to No. 68 (three spots)
- From No. 101 to No. 115 (14 spots)
New draft picks acquired
- No. 115 (fourth round, 4-years, $4.8 million, $772k sign-on bonus)
- No. 170 (fifth round, 4-years, $4.3 million, $248k sign-on bonus)
- No. 195 (sixth round, 4-years, $4.2 million, $178k sign-on bonus)
- No. 235 (seventh round, 4-years, $4.1 million, $102k sign-on bonus)
From a salary cap standpoint, the sign-on bonuses for these four picks totals a paltry $1.3 million (spread out over four years for cap purposes) with annual salaries hovering just north of $1 million per year, which is a rounding error in today’s NFL.
The potential upside of these four extra picks is well worth the risk of moving down a couple of spots earlier in the draft. The Panthers desperately need more young, cheap talent, and this trade down strategy is a virtual risk-free way of acquiring some.
If anybody knows how to contact Dan Morgan, please forward him this manifesto.
If he wants to call me to discuss this ingenious strategy further, he knows where to find me. I’ll be relaxing in a beach chair, listening to the crashing waves, soaking up the sun, and sipping on a tropical drink from my Trade Down Island paradise.
“Captain” (Dan) Morgan doing business with the Benevolent Dictator of Trade Down Island?
Sounds like a match made in tropical heaven.
2024-04-15 12:00:00
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