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Luka Doncic is undoubtedly exceptional.

“According to one scout, the challenge for Luka or James in the playoffs is that they face tougher opponents and more experienced coaches. In the regular season, teams tend to rely on fluid plays rather than structured set plays. This unpredictability can work in their favor. However, in the playoffs, there is more time and resources to analyze game footage, plan specific strategies, and effectively defend players like Luka. With the increased opportunity for practice, it is possible to limit their success on the court even if it may not necessarily show up in their individual statistics.”

Several executives explained that there are numerous factors contributing to this, and here is a summary of their worries about players who have a high ball dominance, such as Doncic.

In 2019, Morey stated that it is a fact that James Harden is a more skilled scorer than Michael Jordan. Morey believed that by looking at how many points are generated while Harden has possession of the ball, which is a more accurate measure of offense, he surpasses all other players in NBA history.

There has never been a player in NBA history who had a higher usage rate in a single season and also made it to the NBA Finals, much less won one. Out of the 19 instances where a player had more ball possession than Doncic this season, only three have reached the Conference Finals – Harden in 2017-18, Kobe Bryant in 2005-06, and Doncic himself in the 2021-22 season, which was his first time advancing past the first round.

However, the magnificence of Doncic also brings about a particular anxiety.As in Luka Doncic becoming a new version of James Harden.

Currently, Doncic is among the top basketball players in the world, and the potential achievements that come with that title, such as championships, multiple MVP awards, periods of dominance, and induction into the Hall of Fame, seem almost certain.Doncic, after all, is so astoundingly great that Stan Van Gundy told the Dan Le Batard show last week Doncic is “the best offensive player now that I have ever seen.”

“I concur,” stated a competing NBA official in an interview with CBS Sports. “Acquiring someone like Luka can lead to success in numerous regular-season matches and even a few playoff games. However, there is a limit to the potential outcomes.”

This is supported by historical evidence.Three players have won an MVP while having a top-20 all-time usage rate season — Giannis, Harden and Embiid. Not one of them got out of the second round of the playoffs those seasons.That’s high praise indeed, and well-earned, if a bit much. Doncic just had 33.9/9.2/9.8 season. He’s a human highlight reel whose virtuoso offensive performances are difficult to overstate. I just voted him at third on my official NBA MVP ballot, an excruciating decision given the seasons Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also have had. 

Luka Doncic is incredibly talented and he may continue to perform at a high level this season. However, if he does not reach his potential, such as facing an early exit in the playoffs, it may be worth considering him as the Dallas version of James Harden 2.0.

Since the mid-season break, the Mavericks have had the seventh highest scoring efficiency in the NBA. This may not come as a surprise considering the potent offensive combination of Doncic and Kyrie Irving. However, what is truly astonishing is that since March 7 when they began starting Daniel Gafford, whom they acquired during the trade period, the Mavericks have had the best defense in the entire league.

Harden has achieved numerous accolades in his career, including an MVP award and three scoring titles. He has also been named to the All-NBA First Team six times. At one point, he was widely recognized as one of the best basketball players in history. Most of Harden’s success in the NBA was with the Houston Rockets, where, similarly to Doncic in Dallas, he only made it to one Conference Finals and was unable to advance further.

To begin with, there is a obvious route to the Western Conference Finals on one side of the bracket where the Denver Nuggets are not present. The Dallas Mavericks, with a strong performance in the playoffs, are focused on maintaining their excellent performance. It is also worth considering the outcome for Paul George if the Los Angeles Clippers fail in the first round, as well as the future of the Dallas Mavericks’ star-studded duo if they are eliminated early.

Luka Doncic’s usage rate this season was 35.98 percent, which ranks as the 20th-highest in NBA history.

History teaches us that being great is important for winning a championship, but having too much control on the ball can undermine even the most impressive of seasons.
There is still opportunity for adjustment. Just twelve months prior, Nikola Jokic faced critiques and uncertainties. However, one extraordinary performance put all doubts to rest.

Harden and Luka have more in common than just devoted fans, dominant offensive skills, and modest playoff achievements. Both are known for their control of the ball, and some NBA individuals have expressed concerns that Doncic’s potential for greatness, which will ultimately be determined by playoff victories and championship titles, could follow a similar path as Harden’s.

This year, Doncic has the highest usage-rate out of any season, but unfortunately, it has not resulted in success. Harden also has three of the top usage-rate seasons, but he has not been able to win a championship or reach the Finals since leaving Oklahoma City to take on a key role in Houston. He has also played significant roles in Brooklyn, Philly, and now LA, but still has not achieved a championship.

During the season, the team struggled in their defensive efforts, ranking 18th in defensive rating. However, over the last 20 games, they have improved significantly and are now considered the top team in the league. They have also achieved the second-highest win record in this time frame, following behind the Boston Celtics.

• The defensive flaw that often comes with their superb offensive skills, and particularly with Luka’s.

• During the playoffs, players who have a high usage rate may experience decreased performance due to physical strain and facing tougher defensive strategies.

• The way players like Doncic or Harden drive offensive outcomes all year as individuals — while dominating the ball — thus undercutting teammates’ abilities to be ready, best-situated or properly muscle-memoried to contribute in key playoff moments. 

• The structure of playoff basketball places a greater emphasis on limiting individual performance rather than fostering team success.

In 2019, there was also a strikingly similar statement made about Doncic. This time it was from Daryl Morey, the former General Manager of Houston, who argued on a podcast that Harden was the greatest offensive player ever, even surpassing Michael Jordan, although he had not yet won a championship at that time.

To put it clearly, Harden’s performance during the regular season has been overshadowed by his underwhelming performance in the playoffs.

However, the same could be said for Harden prior to him. If Luka and his team are unable to defeat Harden and the Clippers this Saturday, it is possible that one of the most promising players in the game may experience disappointment in his career, becoming a “what-if” in the list of all-time greats.

In perfect timing for the playoffs, Doncic now has a team that appears prepared to meet his high expectations.

However, there is a lingering concern that is being discussed in certain NBA circles by both supporters and skeptics of Luka. They have expressed their worries.But atop the list of what could be at stake is a possibility sometimes whispered about in the NBA and, barring a change, creeping closer to reality: That Luka Doncic is actually James Harden 2.0. — a superb scorer whose game doesn’t easily translate to success in the playoffs.

It should be noted that athletes who have faced intense and harsh skepticism in the past have often turned those doubts around and received positive media coverage and a supportive fan base. Examples include Steph Curry and Nikola Jokic, who proved their doubters wrong.

The individual who will serve as a constant reminder during the Mavs-Clippers series of the temporary nature of greatness and the limited opportunities it brings in the NBA.
His style of dominating the ball and the impressive performance in the regular season have been witnessed before, but sometimes it leads to disappointing results in the playoffs. The thought of a top-level player playing exceptionally well on the offensive end for a team that appears to be a strong contender, only to falter in the postseason, has happened before.

Michael Jordan holds the record for two of the most heavily-utilized single seasons in NBA history. However, he failed to qualify for the playoffs in one of those seasons and was eliminated in the first round in the other. Similarly, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Allen Iverson, and Dwyane Wade also experienced early playoff exits during their seasons with top-20 all-time usage rates.

His name is James Harden.

The outcome of the first-round playoff series starting on Saturday between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers will have a significant impact on several important factors.