Everyone loves a good comeback story, especially in sports and the NFL. That’s part of the reason why the league hands out a shiny trophy at the end of the year for the player who bounces back the most.
A lot of times, rookies fall into this category. The best and most popular example is Peyton Manning, who famously threw more interceptions (28) than touchdowns (26) during his first season before putting together a Hall of Fame career.
Here, we’ll dive into how disappointing players from the 2023 NFL draft class can bounce back and put together a strong sophomore campaign.
The reasons for each individual will be different but can vary from an improvement in the supporting cast, coaching staff or if they were viewed as a developmental prospect coming out of college and might have been thrust into action too early.
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Being the No. 1 overall pick is a blessing and a curse. On one hand, you become the richest player in your draft class and get the confidence booster of being the first guy selected. But on the other hand, you’re typically going to a bad situation. That sums up Bryce Young’s first season with the Carolina Panthers.
It had to feel good that the Panthers were willing to not only give up a boatload of picks to get him but also their top receiver, D.J. Moore. However, that meant the team’s receiving corps was one of the worst in the league last season.
Adding Diontae Johnson this offseason gives Young a wideout who can create separation which the team’s offense needed last year. Especially if Jonathan Mingo takes a step forward in his second season; Mingo, Johnson and Adam Thielen will give the sophomore quarterback a much more respectable pass-catching trio to throw to.
Also, Carolina’s offensive line should be much improved with the additions of guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. In 2023, the Panthers’ guards accounted for 17 sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focuswhile Hunt gave up just one and Lewis surrendered three.
Additionally, the Panthers made a coaching change and hired Dave Canales, who helped revive Baker Mayfield’s career as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator last fall. So, the team’s new head coach has experience working with and fixing an undersized quarterback, which is likely a big reason why Canales was hired.
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Part of the reason why Tyree Wilson got off to such a slow start as a rookie was because he was injured heading into the season and the Las Vegas Raiders’ coaching staff kept the training wheels on him.
Wilson wasn’t a full participant in practice until about roughly halfway through training camp and only got to play in the team’s final preseason game. So, when the regular season started, he was still getting his feet wet in the NFL and didn’t get the reps most rookies receive until the bullets really started flying.
With a clean bill of health, the ability to train instead of rehab in the offseason and a full slate of practices, the Texas Tech product will be much more prepared and ready for action heading into year two.
Additionally, the Raiders have a strong defensive line led by Maxx Crosby and free-agent signing Christian Wilkins. Malcolm Koonce also had a strong showing as a pass-rusher last year with eight sacks, so Wilson will draw plenty of one-on-one blocks in the fall.
That should lead to an increase in production, especially since he’ll be the least of the opposing offense’s concerns in the trenches. Granted, the 2023 No. 7 overall pick does need to improve his use of hands as a pass-rusher, but once he does, those 35 3/8″-inch arms will be put to good use.
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Paris Johnson Jr. had a tough rookie season with the Arizona Cardinals, giving up 42 total pressures (eight sacks) and earning a 55.1 run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus. But, while he was capable of being an immediate starter, B/R’s Brandon Thorn noted in Johnson’s scouting report that he had some technical flaws that could lead to some early struggles.
Another offseason and more experience should help the Ohio State product clean those up, and he did get better as the season went on which is encouraging for his future development. Also, last fall was the first time he lined up at right tackle during a game, beyond a handful of snaps in his true freshman year at Columbus.
Being more comfortable holding down the right edge should help lead to a bounce-back performance. Or, the Cardinals can move the 22-year-old back to his more natural position at left tackle now that D.J. Humphries is gone.
While Arizona signed Jonah Williams in free agency, Williams also has experience playing both tackle spots after moving to the right side with the Bengals last year. He even told the Cardinals’ team website that he “enjoyed playing right tackle” and thinks he had a good year there shortly after signing with the club.
So, whether it’s having more experience at a new position or going back to the one that made him the sixth overall pick in the draft, expect Johnson to be better in year two.
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To a certain degree, Emmanuel Forbes falls into the category of a player who was likely thrust into action too quickly. B/R’s defensive backs scout Cory Giddings stated that the Washington Commanders’ first-round pick needed to add weight and could become a starter down the road.
However, the 166-pound corner was thrust into the starting lineup in the season opener last September, and Giddings was proven correct as Forbes was benched just a few weeks later. So, spending some time in the weight room and having an offseason in an NFL training program should help him solve that problem.
Also, there is a new head coach in Washington this season. Dan Quinn had a good run as the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator and likely part of the reason why he got the job with the Commanders is because of his work with young cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland.
Those two are the boom-or-bust type of defensive backs and they’ve combined for 32 career interceptions in six combined seasons, and Diggs only played in two games last year. Meanwhile, Bland set an NFL record with five-pick sixes.
Forbes also falls into that category as he snatched away 14 passes and returned six of them for scores during his three seasons at Mississippi State. So, in 2023, he gets to play in a system or for a coach who has experience maximizing his skill set.
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Especially after Mike Williams went down with a torn ACL in Week 3 and he was elevated to a starting role, Quentin Johnston had a pretty underwhelming rookie season with the Los Angeles Chargers. The 2023 first-round pick logged just 38 catches for 431 yards and two touchdowns despite drawing 67 targets, per Pro Football Referencelast fall.
However, having a full offseason to build chemistry with Justin Herbert should help increase those numbers. Also, it can’t hurt that Williams is now in New York and Keenan Allen was traded to Chicago, meaning Herbert and Johnston should get plenty of reps together in training camp now that the latter isn’t the third or fourth receiver on the depth chart.
The departure of Allen is also significant for the TCU product as that will allow him to get more snaps in the slot. Part of the reason the former Horned Frog was so productive during his final season in college was because he was aligned on the inside more frequently and versatility was partially why he was such a coveted prospect, per B/R’s Derrik Klassen.
Additionally, Jim Harbaugh was hired as the Chargers’ new head coach and is expected to implement an offense that features a lot of play-action which should help improve the team’s passing attack overall. According to FantasyLife.comHerbert ranked 17th with just 80 play-action passing attempts last season.
Between more opportunities in the slot and an improved philosophical approach overall, Johnson can be much more productive in 2024.
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At Michigan, Mazi Smith was a 320-pound space-eating nose tackle who was hard to move against the run. However, he dropped weight as a rookie and the Dallas Cowboys tried lining him up as a 3-technique, likely to take advantage of and maximize the unique athleticism that helped him top Bruce Feldman’s list of exceptional athletes in 2022.
That didn’t work out as Smith struggled to get playing time behind Osa Odighizuwa and Jonathan Hankins. But Hankins is now in Seattle which should mean the Michigan product will get more reps moving forward.
Granted, he’ll need to put the weight back on, but Smith was always best suited as a 0- to 2i-technique in the NFL, per his scouting report from B/R’s NFL draft scouting department. He’s best when two-gapping or plugging up holes against the run and has never been known for his pass-rush skills with only half a sack in three college seasons.
So, playing as more of a nose tackle in Mike Zimmer’s defense will allow Smith to go back to the role he was so good at in college. Expect Zimmer to use the former Wolverine similar to how he used Linval Joesph with the Vikings, and Joesph was a two-time Pro Bowler in Minnesota.
2024-04-13 12:26:00
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