Cairo After the unprecedented air strike launched by Iran against Israel on Saturday night in response to the Israeli army’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month, all eyes are on Tel Aviv’s reaction . Tehran has quickly signaled an end to the exchange of blows – unless Tel Aviv fires back – and the United States is trying to get Israel to show restraint and sell the success of its anti-aircraft defense as a strategic victory. But there are still fears that new action by Israel could continue to fuel a difficult-to-contain escalation of war in the region, in the shadow of its devastating offensive in Gaza. The words of the member of the Israeli war cabinet, Benny Gantz, were not very hopeful: “This is not over”, he warned this Sunday in Tehran.
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Iran’s attack on Israel consisted of more than 300 drones and missiles launched in part from Iranian soil, according to the Israeli military, which, with the help of an international military coalition, was able to intercept around 99% of projectiles fired. There were only a small number of impacts, including one at a military base, and the country’s emergency services reported a 10-year-old girl was injured and is in critical condition.
A few hours after the attack, Iran was ready to de-escalate the situation. The country’s mission to the UN justified the action as self-defense and in response to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus, and assured that the matter “can be concluded.” However, he anticipated that if Israel “makes another mistake”, the response will be “considerably more severe”, and asked the United States to stay away.
Many analysts agree that Iran’s response has been designed to prevent an escalation of violence. Among the indications that point in this direction is the fact that Tehran announced for days its intention to carry out an attack and that on Saturday it gave Israel hours to prepare. Militias close to Tehran in countries neighboring Israel, such as Lebanon and Syria, did not mobilize either. And Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, to which the high-ranking general shot down by Israel in Damascus belonged, declared that they had “successfully” executed a “limited operation”.
The scope of the air strike
Countries involved in this Saturday’s climb
About 1,500 km separate the two cities
ATTACK
Organized by Iran and with projectiles fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. They were up to 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.
DEFENDING
Israel says 99% of Iranian missiles were intercepted overnight, with support from the US, UK, France and also Jordan.
About 1,500 km separate the two cities
ATTACK
Organized by Iran and with projectiles fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. They were up to 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.
DEFENDING
Israel says 99% of Iranian missiles were intercepted overnight, with support from the US, UK, France and also Jordan.
About 1,500 km separate the two cities
ATTACK
Organized by Iran and with projectiles fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. They were up to 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.
DEFENDING
Israel says 99% of Iranian missiles were intercepted overnight, with support from the US, UK, France and also Jordan.
The United States, in turn, has expressed that its commitment to Israel’s security is total. But they have insisted that they hope that the situation will not go further, that Tel Aviv will take advantage of the success of having shot down almost all the drones and missiles to sell it as a victory and that it will avoid reprisals that could aggravate the situation. Senior Iranian officials have also directed their threats since the launch of the attack at the United States and its bases in the region, in an apparent attempt to push it to rein in Israel.
“A strategic alliance”
From Israel the messages have been more mixed. Benny Gantz, close to Washington, stated in a speech that the defense against Iran’s attacks is a “strategic achievement”. But he advanced that the incident “is not over” and called for deepening the security alliance that Tel-Aviv has been building in the region, with the help of the United States, and which includes several Arab countries that they maintain difficult relations with Iran. The country’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, also highlighted the opportunity to establish “a strategic alliance” against the Iranian threat. Jordan, for example, said it had intercepted some flying objects that had entered its airspace for security purposes, according to a message from the prime minister’s office on Sunday.
The country’s foreign ministry spokesman, Lior Haiat, said in turn that Iran “must pay a price,” but noted that “the initial price” must be the designation of the Revolutionary Guard as terrorist organization followed by “painful sanctions”.
In the same vein, the Israeli ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, said that he would demand from the Security Council the designation of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group.
Pressure from ultra members
On the other side of the coin, far-right members of the Israeli government have shown themselves in favor of a direct and forceful response against Iran. The head of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, wrote on the networks that “it is time for a leadership capable of restoring deterrence”. The Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, called Gantz’s plans “naive” and called for an “overwhelming attack”, and the Minister of Culture and Sport, Miki Zohar, assured that “a “lax response” will not be effective in deterring Tehran.
The most cryptic so far, however, has been the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on whom, ultimately, Israel’s reaction will depend. Before the attack took place, Netanyahu had warned that whoever did it would be hurt, which gives him some room not to continue escalating the situation, for now.
2024-04-14 19:46:01
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