The relegation battle in the 2nd Bundesliga is extremely close: five match days before the end, eight teams still have to worry about staying in the league. Right in the middle: Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig. Both have to tremble until the end, as the data analysis shows.
Relegation battles sometimes seem bizarre: According to the data, cup finalist 1. FC Kaiserslautern should actually be in the top half of the table. The reality currently looks completely different with 17th place. And since the 2015/2016 season, a direct relegation place after the 29th matchday also meant relegation to the third division in 68 percent of cases.
With nine points from the last five games, FC Hansa has recently scored the same points as top club FC St. Pauli. No team in the league scores fewer goals than Mecklenburg. But the Rostock remaining program is really tough – especially when compared to its direct competitors.
Eintracht is playing the best second half of the relegation candidates to date. And SV Wehen Wiesbaden seems to be in free fall with four defeats in a row. There is a lot of movement in the fight to stay in the league, in which GSN’s data analysis clearly reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the teams.
VfL Osnabrück (probably) can no longer be saved
Only one thing is certain at this point: Despite the significant improvement in the second half of the season, VfL Osnabrück can no longer be saved – of all things in the year of its 125th anniversary. Coach Uwe Koschinat’s team is chasing after the completely messed up first half of the season. Nine points from the first 17 appearances were recorded in the winter. The fact that the purple-whites are in eleventh place in the second half of the season table will most likely not be of any use to them.
According to the data experts’ calculations, the probability of VfL being relegated is now 91 percent. A medium-sized football miracle would have to happen so that the promoted team doesn’t slip back into the third division.
Schalke and Nuremberg save themselves
GSN’s artificial intelligence has also calculated that 1. FC Nürnberg – currently six points ahead of the relegation zone – will ultimately prevail just as clearly as FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Magdeburg. The teams are too strong compared to the clubs in the bottom of the table, even if all three lack any consistency.
Accordingly, on the last five match days of the season with Wien Wiesbaden, Braunschweig, Rostock and Kaiserslautern, it boils down to a four-way battle: two stay in, one has to go into relegation and one is relegated alongside Osnabrück.
The “lions” have learned to fight again
The second half of the season clearly speaks for Eintracht (eighth place in the second half of the season). Coach Daniel Scherning has made the table 17th, which often has no chance, possible. In the first half of the season we formed a group of fighters who are fighting against relegation with all their might. The “Lions” increased their average of 0.8 points per game to 1.4. They had already exceeded the yield from the first half of the season at the end of March.
When it comes to winning the ball, Lower Saxony is at the top of the league. Especially when the opponent approaches their own penalty area, the men in yellow and blue attack courageously. The values for intercepted passes and successful tackles (third place) are also impressive.
Scherning managed to keep his team highly concentrated for over 90 minutes. No other club concedes so few goals from counterattacks, direct free kicks and from free kick attacks. The Braunschweigers also rank first in the league when it comes to the number of duels they won on the ground.
In terms of football, BTSV still looks like a relegated team
But there are good reasons why BTSV is a candidate for relegation. When it comes to counter-pressing, especially after losing the ball in the opposing half, no other team is as bad as the “Lions”. The goal tally of 30 goals in 29 games still has room for improvement. And that’s not just because Braunschweig finishes far too rarely (16th place in comparison). Only just under one in four even gets on goal – that’s just 3.79 shots per game.
The relegation probabilities at a glance
13. 1. FC Magdeburg: 6% relegation – 5% direct relegation
14. SV Wehen Wiesbaden: 17% relegation – 17% direct relegation
15. Eintracht Braunschweig: 23% relegation – 27% direct relegation
16. Hansa Rostock: 27% relegation – 41% direct relegation
17. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 22% relegation – 19% direct relegation
18. VfL Osnabrück: 6% relegation – 91% direct relegation
In general, the passing game leaves a lot to be desired. In terms of both the number of passes and the pass rate in almost all areas of the pitch, Eintracht is one of the worst teams in the league or is even last in the ranking.
This also explains that the calculated probability of direct relegation is 27 percent for table 15th. continues to be very high and is therefore even higher than the relegation place. But: The BTSV has the reins of action in the final spurt of the season. Not only because of his ranking above the line, but also because he plays against Wehen Wiesbaden and in Kaiserlautern on the last two match days.
Can Hansa Rostock avoid relegation?
Like the competition from Osnabrück and Braunschweig, the Rostock team also changed their head coach in the winter. And Mersad Selimbegovic has successfully highlighted his team’s strengths. No other team has as many duels per game (226). When it comes to the number and success rate of ground duels on the defensive, no one can fool the Mecklenburgers. Defending starts in the front row: the Hansa strikers tackle most often and no team records more high team pressing actions (almost 20 per game).
505 defensive actions (317 of which were successful) are also the league’s best – but this also has a dark side. The Rostock defense is almost constantly under pressure. There is far too little relief. If the Braunschweigers have almost perfected their counter-attack game, statistically Hansa doesn’t even manage to score a goal from the game in every third encounter.
Defense overwhelmed by weak offense
The fact that Hansa is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to transition moments is not least due to their weak passing game. The team’s average run of 113.71 kilometers is no more than 16th place in the league comparison. And when you see that the opposing clubs have an average of 2.06 expected goals against Rostock, the worst offense in the league (including Osnabrück) has no realistic chance of compensating for the many goals conceded. Hansa doesn’t even score one goal per game on average.
Das “Expected goals”-Modell
“Expected goals” are “expected goals” and are calculated using a data model that takes into account a variety of factors – including where on the pitch the goal was scored, what the angle was to the goal and how many opponents were still between the ball and the goal Gate stood. Each scoring opportunity is given a value between 0 and 1 to determine the probability of the ball landing in the goal from that point. “Expected goals” values are more meaningful than the normal goalscoring statistics, which treat all shots equally. GSN evaluated more than 3 million goals for the calculation.
According to the GSN calculation, the probability of Rostock being relegated directly is 41 percent. This is the second highest value after Osnabrück, bottom of the table. Accordingly, Rostock would have to make the difficult transition to the third league.
The only thing that gives hope is the big ups and downs under Selimbegovic: weak (away) appearances and victories naturally alternate, so that the recent 0:4 at Hertha BSC is almost a good omen for the game against Magdeburg on Sunday (1.30 p.m.). , in the NDR Livecenter).
The AI still believes in contractions in Wiesbaden
Wiesbaden, on the other hand, seems to be running out of steam in the final spurt of the season. In the intensive runs, coach Markus Kauczinski’s team took last place in the league comparison, as well as in the sprints. Even if the defense against the ball continues to work at a very high level, the many ball losses could be fatal for the Hessians. Especially since the SVWW is vulnerable to quick counterattacks.
After the 3-0 win in Elversberg at the beginning of March, things were still going well in Wiesbaden with a six-point lead over the relegation zone. In the following five games, however, only two goals were scored – and suddenly the promoted team is level on points with places 15 and 16. 17th place is only two points away.
Reason for hope? Actually none. Especially since the rest of the program is demanding. But: The calculation by GSN’s artificial intelligence puts the team from Wiesbaden in 14th place. Accordingly, the Hessians still get seven points from the last five games.
Kaiserslautern: Number one in Expected goals
Maybe already on Saturday (1 p.m.) at the derby in Kaiserslautern? The 70-year-old Friedhelm Funkel managed to lead the “Red Devils” into the DFB Cup final against German champions Bayer Leverkusen. In the league, however, the veteran, who came back from retirement specifically for the FCK, is now looking modest: there were eight points in the eight league games – most recently three defeats in a row.
What is the “Expected points” model?
The expected points determine the number of points that a team “should” have gotten from a game based on the scoring chances, i.e. the “expected goals,” that they generated or should have gotten in that game. Each team gets between 0.1 and 2.7 expected points, depending on how one-sided the game was from the perspective of expected goals.
However, the statistics on the Betzenberg take on grotesque features: there are not only the many expected points, of which Lautern failed to get so many. With 2.02 expected goals, the offense is actually the best in the league. With the 45 goals scored, the Palatinate team still outshines all their direct competitors, but 58 goals conceded is also the worst value in the league.
The fact that FCK doesn’t make enough of its own chances and that its opponents are particularly accurate is fatal. It would be bitter, but no longer surprising, if Kaiserslautern were actually relegated. But the relegation battle has already revealed many a surprise this season. And perhaps the wealth of experience of trainer fox Funkel will prove to be a bargaining chip in the fight against relegation.
At least the AI predicts that Lautern will stay in the league in 15th place – and thus send Braunschweig into relegation.
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sports club | 21.04.2024 | 10:50 p.m
