There are several landmark moments on the NFL calendar every year en route to the draft: the early-declaration deadline; all-star games, like the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl; the combine. And, of course, the day that Dane Brugler releases his all-encompassing draft guide, “The Beast.”
This year’s version of “The Beast” — with 402 player profiles and nearly 2,000 prospects ranked — dropped on Wednesday.
What stood out in Dane’s breakdowns? Which players still might be getting overlooked in the process? Draft analysts Nick Baumgardner and Scott Dochterman dive into those topics.
First, though, a reset of where things stand at the top of the draft, where it’s looking more and more certain that a QB run could materialize in a hurry.
1. Nick, in your mock this week, you had Minnesota (to No. 4), Atlanta (to 5) and Chicago (to 6) all trading within the top 10. Which teams are going to be most aggressive in Round 1?
Nick Baumgardner:: Minnesota feels obvious. Not sure you make the move for an extra first-round pick this year if you aren’t going after a quarterback. I actually had Denver move down in my mock, as I just don’t know if the Broncos can afford a trade-up given their pick situation. But I still had them taking a QB (Bo Nix). Same situation for Las Vegas — I’m sure the Raiders would love to move up, but not sure they can afford it.
The Bears have felt like a trade-up candidate for a while now, especially if you consider how the board is likely to fall. There are three truly elite WR prospects in this class: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. If the Bears can pair Caleb Williams with one of those guys, it’d be ideal.
Two other candidates at the bottom of the first round: Buffalo and Detroit. The Bills need a wide receiver, post-Stefon Diggs. LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. is a first-round prospect, and he’s not likely to be there when Buffalo selects at No. 28. Detroit needs a corner, but GM Brad Holmes has proven he’s not going to just take one for the sake of filling a slot. If Terrion Arnold (who was in Detroit on a visit this week) or Quinyon Mitchell dip, don’t be shocked if Detroit gets aggressive.
Scott Dochterman: Unless Minnesota has a plan at quarterback, like Nix or Michael Penix Jr., it’s a team to watch. But what’s the landing spot and for whom? With their extra first, the Vikings have more draft capital than Denver or Las Vegas, so at a minimum, they should get quarterback at No. 4 or No. 5. (I can’t see the Chargers at No. 5 dealing with the Broncos or Raiders.)
I have a hunch Philadelphia is going to take a big jump for a defensive back, either Arnold or Mitchell. By late last season, the Eagles’ secondary had the same effect as a spaghetti strainer holding water. By No. 22, both of those corners will be gone. Swapping spots with, say, Denver at No. 12 to makes sense.
Kansas City is one other team to watch. If either Odunze or Nabers slips to No. 9 overall, I could see the Chiefs trading with the Bears (who currently hold that pick, in addition to No. 1). Chicago has just four draft picks in all and could recoup the second-rounder it lost in its Montez Sweat trade. Patrick Mahomes could use an elite outside weapon.
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2. Dane’s top five QBs, in order: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. Is it more likely that McCarthy leapfrogs someone to join the top three or that Daniels climbs ahead of Maye into the top two?
Baumgardner: I’ll start by saying I don’t think either is likely. I think there’s been far too much shade thrown at Maye this cycle — some of it possibly on purpose. He’s QB2 for me and has been for a bit.
That said, Daniels would be more likely to jump up than McCarthy, although I actually see the gap between McCarthy and Daniels as smaller than the gap between Daniels and Maye. Daniels is QB3, but there are red flags with his hesitancy over the middle and tendency to quickly drop his eyes in the pocket versus pressure — two things McCarthy actually does very well (when he gets a chance). Still, Daniels has so much more experience than McCarthy and is a terrific athlete (and a serious run threat) with a high-level arm. He’s also improved as much as any player in America over the last two seasons, in my opinion.
In the long run, I might bet on McCarthy, but I also think he’s going to need a minute before taking over an NFL offense. Daniels should be ready to roll.
Daughter: I lean closer to Daniels moving past Maye than I do McCarthy sliding ahead of either one of them. With Daniels, you know what you’re going to get right away, and he’s going to make plays as a rookie. I liken him a bit to Deshaun Watson, although Daniels is more dynamic as a runner and less polished as a passer. I’m not as sure about Daniels’ ceiling, which means he could be the NFL’s 16th best quarterback as a rookie but rise no higher than 13th by Year 5.
In Maye, I see a lot of Kirk Cousins. Long-term, he’s got upper-quartile possibilities, but it could take him time to get there. I like McCarthy’s potential, but as Nick said, he’s going to need a season to settle into the right situation. If he’s thrown in too early, he could wind up like Josh Rosen. If he gets at least a year, preferably two, maybe he’s Jake Plummer or Rich Gannon. Most teams would take that.
3. “The Beast” includes Dane’s updated top 100 for the 2024 draft. What stood out to you in the rankings?
Baumgardner: I think folks should look at how Nix and Penix slotted inside the top 100 (Nix at No. 44, Penix at No. 52). Both have Day 2 grades.
To me, Nix is on the fringe of being worth a late-first round pick, if a team has a good offensive (and defensive) line and playmakers. Penix is probably higher on the Beast board than I’d have him. He’s a third-round prospect — closer to the back end of the top 100 than the middle. It’s hard to bet against him, as he’s obviously overcome a ton already, but he’s about to be 24 years old, has been hurt multiple times and is not a consistently accurate passer.
Another name that jumped out was Western Michigan edge Marshawn Kneeland, at No. 32. I love it. Kneeland is one of those guys who flashes in spurts, but looks outstanding when he does — and he plays his tail off. He’s got great length (34 1/2-inch arms) and knows how to use it as a physical edge with a developing pass-rush arsenal. He could blossom into a three-down player for someone very soon.
Daughter: The secondary had some interesting breakdowns that caused me to pause and examine how Dane stacked his second-round cornerbacks. Mike Sainristil was the heart of Michigan’s secondary last season and a tenacious player, but his size (5-foot-9, 183 pounds) seemed to say “third round.” At No. 43 on Dane’s board, though, he’s ahead of Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (No. 49) and Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa (No. 55), which suggests Sainristil can maximize his impact despite his limitations.
I was pleasantly surprised to see LSU defensive tackle Maason Smith at No. 64. An ACL tear wiped out his 2022 season, and he was just rounding into form at the end of the 2023 campaign. A three-year player and five-star recruit, Smith could have incredible potential with some good coaching.
#LSU DT Maason Smith
6-5 | 306
35 arms
8 1/2 hand
5.02 (1.75) 40
31 vert
9-0 broad
7.62 3-come
4.69 shuttleFridge on wheels.
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) March 1, 2024
Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin (No. 68) was a bit low for my taste. Nubin tipped the field every time stepped on the turf. At one point in November, he had more interceptions than completions allowed.
Bonus, Scott-only interlude: Tory Taylor has a fourth-round grade in “The Beast.” As our resident Iowa beat writer, is that ranking fair or unfair?
Daughter: Fourth round is entirely fair. Somehow, Taylor’s leg didn’t fall off after setting the NCAA single-season record with 4,479 yards, breaking an 85-year-old mark. Taylor holds the Big Ten record for career average (46.3 yards per punt), and last year he had 40 punts of 50-plus yards, 32 punts inside the 20-yard line and 23 inside the 13. He has punted in extreme cold, high winds, downpours, snow and other conditions that make him ideally suited for an NFL team.
But it’s his spot placement that separates him from other punters. Arguably, Iowa won four games during his career based directly on his punting prowess — Penn State (2021), Iowa State (2021), South Dakota State (2022) and Wisconsin (2023). Iowa beat South Dakota State, 7-3, in the 2022 opener after recording two safeties; both came following punts that landed inside the 7-yard line. In the other three games, Taylor dropped 17 of a combined 27 punts inside the 20 (with only two touchbacks), while averaging 48.6 yards. Every defense wants a weapon like Taylor. He’s a difference-maker.
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4. There are 402 players profiled in “The Beast.” Give us one or two sleepers who people should study up on.
Baumgardner: UCF tackle Tylan Grable jumps out. Dane has a seventh-round grade on him (and it’s hard to argue with his reasoning why), but Grable is a really interesting guy with a pretty wild story. He was a 230-pound high school quarterback who spent a little time as a defensive lineman, eventually walked on as a tight end at Jacksonville State, then spent one year with the TEs before moving to offensive line in 2019. He added 50 pounds to his 6-5 frame ahead of the 2020 season and now weighs 306. He posted a terrific 1.69-second 10-split on his 40-yard dash (4.95) at the combine, while recording a 36 1/2-inch vertical leap (99th percentile) and a broad jump of 9 feet, 9 inches (98th percentile).
Illinois tight end Tip Reiman is built like a pro wrestler and has some freaky athletic traits. He was a linebacker/receiver in high school until a late switch to tight end. He took some time to develop as a blocker, but he got there over time. Reiman (6-4, 271) plays with great long speed (4.64) and is a very sound and capable run blocker. There isn’t a ton of polish in his route running, but he’s only been a tight end for five years — and that aspect of his game has improved each season.
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Daughter: There’s not much on paper about Colorado State edge Mohamed Kamara that makes him an NFL draft pick. Then you watch him perform and believe he will find a role. Kamara (6-1, 248) wins with leverage, toughness and quickness, even when he’s overpowered by tackles who outweigh him by 100 pounds. I think he can carve out a nice career as a four-unit special teamer and a subpackage pass rusher.
I’d also caution anyone dismissing Penn State cornerback Kalen King after a poor 2023 season. The same guy had 21 breakups in 2022 and was on everyone’s radar as a potential 2023 All-American. It was a rough final year for King (5-11, 190) in every way, with only two pass breakups and no picks, but many opponents avoided him. He needs to get stronger and more physical to make a roster, but King also has the potential to start in the NFL.
(Photo of Bo Nix: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
2024-04-11 21:45:25
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