For the first time since Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane arrived in 2017, the Buffalo Bills will have someone other than Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer starting at safety in 2024.
With the glaring hole in the Bills’ starting lineup, they have made smaller moves to address the spot.
Their first was to re-sign Taylor Rapp to a three-year deal on paper, but the structure is only a one-year commitment they can get out of ahead of 2025. They signed Mike Edwards to a one-year contract, though they can get out of that deal after camp with $1.2 million in savings. They also brought back Cam Lewis on a two-year deal, but he has little starting experience at safety. And Damar Hamlin was a healthy scratch for most of last year, is a free agent next March and might be on the roster bubble.
All this points to one thing: The Bills have nothing locked down at safety past 2024 and are open to nearly anything to improve that spot in the starting lineup. That should begin with the 2024 NFL Draft as they look to find one of their core starters for many years to come.
What are they looking for, and who fits this year? Here’s a look at the safety class from a Bills perspective.
What do the Bills look for at safety?
The Bills are somewhat predictable in the types of players they target at most positions. They tend to veer toward the prototypical size and arm length with a high degree of athleticism. But safety is not one of those positions.
It begins with having excellent instincts and anticipation, with the player reading the offense’s keys on a play but also in coverage while being able to predict what the quarterback is targeting. An extra early step or two on the ball could be the difference between a completion and an interception. Playmaking skills are also a plus, and a sneaky thing to look for in a player’s profile is whether they have a baseball background, which usually comes with excellent ball-tracking skills. The Bills typically haven’t looked for elite speed or agility metrics, believing that an instinctive player can outthink the opponent, which extends their range farther than a faster and stronger player.
On top of that, possessing the versatility to play both positions is a crucial attribute. Though the two safeties will have their home most of the time, either at free or strong safety, having the ability to moonlight as the opposite for 20 to 35 percent of the defensive snaps is essential for the overall unpredictability and keeping the offense guessing. Being a sound tackler is excellent, but the willingness to get their nose dirty in run support is more meaningful, as the team likely will think it can help a player improve their tackling fundamentals over time.
A player’s size also does not usually matter to the Bills. If they have prototypical size and are a plus-athlete, those are the cherries on top of the cake. It’s great to have but isn’t the foundation of the cake or the icing on top of it, which is the reason you’re ordering the dessert in the first place.
With the help of The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler and his annual draft guide, “The Beast,” here is who potentially fits that profile for the Bills.
Top 10, in order of The Beast ranking
Cooper DeJean, Iowa
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 25
Draft range: Round 1-2
DeJean is listed as a cornerback in most places, but his profile always comes with the caveat that he can be a starting cornerback or safety in the NFL, with the instincts to play both. His fit on the Bills is fascinating as precisely everything they covet in a safety. Brugler writes that DeJean “anticipates well and credits his time as a high school quarterback for developing his feel in coverage.” DeJean comes from a zone-heavy defensive scheme, a college program McDermott is especially fond of — the same one that yielded Hyde. DeJean had seven interceptions over the past two years, is a noted strong tackler and has a high school baseball background. Especially if the Bills miss out on a wide receiver worthy of their top pick at No. 28, keep your eyes on DeJean if he’s on the board. The fit is excellent; he would likely become a Day 1 starter and solidify their free safety spot over the next five seasons. He might be the only chance the Bills take at safety in the first round.
Jaden Hicks, Washington State
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 39
Draft range: Round 2
More of a strong safety for the Bills’ scheme, Hicks is a good example of melding elite athleticism and size with some of the traits the Bills look for. But it isn’t an exact fit with the attributes the Bills generally like. On the plus side, Brugler writes that Hicks has “a feel for zone coverage and understands how to balance his sightlines between the pocket and routes.” He is also a noted blitzer and uses his explosiveness to put heat on the quarterback. On the downside, Brugler said, “his read anticipation is a work in progress” and his “ball-hawking skills lessen further away from the line of scrimmage,” two sizable detractors. There’s a chance Hicks could be lower on the Bills’ board than some of the other players listed below him here. Ultimately, the pairing isn’t a home run but solid enough if the value is good and other players are off the board.
Javon Bullard, Georgia
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 53
Draft range: Round 2-3
The quick summary on Bullard from Brugler is straight out of central casting for the Bills: “Overall, Bullard doesn’t have ideal size or length, but he is ultra-instinctive and makes his presence felt at all three levels of the field.” Bullard’s size and arm length are comparable to many of the safeties the Bills have invested in over the years. In addition to being an excellent tackler who gets off blocks quickly, Brugler writes that Bullard has “sharp zone eyes and has the peripheral vision to pick up crossers or sort through route combinations.” Bullard is known as a team leader, one his coaches believe has a future in coaching. He is an ideal fit as a versatile safety who might be better in the Poyer role at strong safety as his base. If Bullard is on the board at No. 60, there’s definite potential the Bills could take him.
Georgia defensive back Javon Bullard works out during the 2024 NFL combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 68
Draft range: Round 2-3
A bit more of a prototypical safety size-wise, Nubin’s big draw is his playmaking, having 13 interceptions and three forced fumbles throughout his college career. That is evidenced by how he “sees the field with instinctive eyes and the whole-field vision to simultaneously track route combinations and the eyes of the quarterback,” according to Brugler. He’s a good, dependable run defender as well. But what could hold the Bills back from Nubin is some hesitation in his game when playing center field. Brugler wrote that Nubin is “ultraprotective of his deep responsibilities and gets stuck on his heels, allowing too many front-facing completions. … (They’ll likely) want to see better urgency in his click-and-close to drive as a top-down defender.” Regardless, this looks like a potential pairing with their second-round pick, albeit one that might not be as strong as Bullard or others listed below.
Cole Bishop, Utah
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 70
Draft range: Round 2-3
Bishop’s profile is a decent pairing with what the Bills have gone for in the past, though he has some holes in his overall profile from the Bills’ lens. His range to cover a lot of area with his speed and explosiveness is a strength, and he has “the football IQ to make plays at all three levels of the field,” according to Brugler. That, on top of the blitzing and willingness as a tackler, all works in his favor. The downside is Bishop profiles as a player with a tendency to be overaggressive, which, Brugler writes, “makes him a target for misdirection, pumps or play action.” If the Bills feel they can help him clean that up, this pairing could work. But some of that falls under the “instincts and anticipation” category, which is one of the most important attributes the Bills look for at the position. I wouldn’t rule him out, though. There’s a lot to like.
Kamren Kinchens, Miami (Fla.)
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 79
Draft range: Round 3
Put an asterisk next to Kinchens because he’s one of the best fits based on what the Bills usually go for. There has been a natural link between the Bills and Kinchens because the team just hired the Hurricanes’ defensive backs coach from last year, Jahmile Addae, to their coaching staff. That’s just a supporting factor. Kinchens’ game is the strongest indicator of potential Bills interest. Despite lacking elite speed and burst, the first line of his scouting report strengths reads that he “anticipates well from different alignments and plays to his natural instincts.” That screams that he has football IQ and the versatility the Bills are looking for in a safety. Kinchens would likely be a free safety to highlight his ball-tracking skills, with the versatility to play both spots. Brugler writes that Kinchens is “alert in zones and not shy about taking chances.” Outside of his speed and size, his missed tackles are among his biggest weaknesses, but importantly for the Bills, he’s also called an “eager tackler,” meaning he’s not afraid to do the dirty work. Lastly, he was a team leader at Miami, which also has been a staple for safeties under McDermott. From Kinchens’ scouting report, this is a home run pairing and could be in the running at No. 60.
Malik Mustapha, Wake Forest
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 84
Draft range: Round 3
Mustapha is likely more of the strong safety type in the Bills’ scheme as a bigger, strong run defender. The troubling phrase in Brugler’s scouting report, however, is that Mustapha “doesn’t have the tape of an instinctive ball hawk.” That’s reflected in his having only one interception in the past two years. But Brugler notes that Mustapha has range and makes “plays he should,” though he doesn’t “consistently (create) interceptions.” The overall coverage instincts could be a draw despite the limited playmaking production. There could be some potential here, but there are stronger fits in this round.
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Texas Tech
The Beast Top 100 ranking: No. 96
Draft range: Round 3-4
Despite ideal 4.41 speed and explosiveness for the position with some 33 passes defended and 10 interceptions over his three years, there seems to be a bit of projection in Taylor-Demerson’s profile. The most concerning part, as Brugler writes, is that he “plays with big eyes and can easily be manipulated by motions and misdirection. … (He) has the speed to course correct, but (his) coverage angles are often wild and behind the route.” So even with lots of production, his instincts might not be where the Bills would like them to be at this point. Regardless, Taylor-Demerson’s production could put him in the running as a free safety target on Day 3.
GO DEEPER
Bills NFL Draft 2024 guide: Picks, predictions and key needs
Calen Bullock, USC
Draft range: Round 3-4
With the usual size (6 feet 2) and arm length (32.5 inches) the Bills gravitate toward, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bills like Bullock more as a developmental Day 3 cornerback than a safety. Or maybe as a Christian Benford type of situation, where they’ll decide once he gets into their scheme. If at safety, the super-athletic and rangy Bullock likely would be a free safety for the Bills, though one with some holes. As Brugler wrote, he “can be easily drawn out of position by eye manipulation” and has “inconsistent process route combinations, which hurts his ability to anticipate passing windows.”
Beau Brade, Maryland
Draft range: Round 4-5
If the Bills go elsewhere in the first two rounds, Brade is an ideal target with enough workable traits they look for to develop into a long-term starter in Buffalo. Brugler wrote that Brade “anticipates play development and drives on throws with confidence,” and that he’s “not easily manipulated by lying quarterback eyes.” At 6 feet, 203 pounds and with 31-inch arm length and 4.65 speed, he pretty much fits the average profile the Bills have invested in at the position over the years. The instincts are what stand out, but like Nubin, Brade plays with some hesitation in coverage to break on the ball to create more turnovers, according to Brugler. However, with Brade, there isn’t the potential second-round cost. Keep an eye on him with one of their two fourth-round selections at Nos. 128 and 133.
(Top photo of Cooper DeJean: Jeffrey Becker / USA Today)
2024-04-16 17:32:30
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