The betting market has done pretty well tipping off draft picks long before they actually happen.
So we’re left to wonder what sharp bettors know about the Washington Commanders’ plans with the second overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
As of Thursday afternoon, the odds for the second pick had LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels close to a lock to be picked by the Commanders. Daniels’ odds at BetMGM were -400. The implied odds of -400 — betting $400 to win just $100 — put Daniels to the Commanders at 80%.
Then, as is the case with draft pick odds, they suddenly shifted in a dramatic way.
Since Thursday night, Daniels is less of a lock, and Drake Maye is back in play for the second pick, if you believe the odds.
Jayden Daniels’ odds shift
Daniels’ odds to go second overall saw a big move Thursday night. He went from -400 to -145. There was another smaller move Friday. As of Friday afternoon, Daniels is -125 to go second overall.
Daniels is still the favorite to be picked by Washington, but Maye’s odds shifted in conjunction with the Daniels move.
Where will Drake Maye be selected in the NFL Draft? (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Maye was +220 (bet $100 to win $220) on Thursday afternoon, then +150 on Thursday night and +100 on Friday. That’s not far behind Daniels with less than a week to go before the NFL Draft.
Draft odds are among the most volatile betting markets. Sportsbooks don’t have inside information. Oddsmakers typically move numbers in a big way if they receive bets from respected, sharp bettors.
The draft odds move toward Maye going second overall might not mean that the North Carolina quarterback is heading to Washington next Thursday. But it’s worth noting.
Will Drake Maye go 2nd overall?
Maye has been one of the few quarterbacks to be picked apart in the lead-up to the NFL Draft. That in itself might be a sign of a smokescreen.
At times over the past few months, there was speculation that Maye could go No. 1 overall. That seems extremely unlikely now, because the Chicago Bears seem set on Caleb Williams as the first pick. But the Commanders have been mostly a mystery at No. 2. There was a thought that Maye was slipping in the draft. Maybe that wasn’t true at all.
The New England Patriots are eagerly awaiting the Commanders’ decision. They have the third pick. Maye is the favorite to go third, at -110, but Daniels’ odds to go No. 3 shifted along with his odds move for the No. 2 pick. Daniels is now +120 to go third.
It would be a shock if quarterbacks don’t go with the first three picks. We just don’t know the order yet. Maybe some sharp bettors have a grasp on what Washington will do. It’s probably not the last time the odds on that pick will move.
2024-04-19 19:42:12
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