With the 2024 NFL Draft approaching, betting markets can indicate how the picks may play out because they’re efficient and pretty smart. Bettors with inside information can place large wagers on markets and move the numbers significantly. Want a good example? Caleb Williams is now -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100) to be selected first overall.
Insiders can also shift betting markets in a second. But sharp bettors love betting on the draft because it is easier to project a pick than a team beating another team, as variance and luck play a huge factor in games.
We’ll use betting odds to analyze the top 10. Predicting the NFL Draft is nearly impossible, especially when one player getting picked can change the entire board. But using data to see how people are betting on the draft makes it interesting to compare to how NFL Draft experts see the best players and team needs.
All implied probability will remove the vig from the betting market to give a more accurate probability chance that the player is drafted at that position. Crowd-sourced odds are via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365.
Odds as of noon ET Wednesday.
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The betting market — and just about everyone else — has been pretty confident about this pick for quite some time. There isn’t much to discuss here. Williams is the guy barring one of the greater “upsets” in NFL Draft history.
Pick probability: 99.5 percent
This is where things get a little murky. Daniels has been the chalk for the second overall pick in the betting markets for a while now and he’s even the overwhelming favorite. I have my doubts but the market is what it is and it says the Commanders are choosing Daniels as their quarterback of the future.
Pick probability: 77.2 percent
With Daniels projected to be off the board, Maye slides in as the big favorite for the Patriots. The QB2 on our consensus NFL big board seems like a bit of a steal if he were to fall to New England with the third pick.
Pick probability: 64.7 percent
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State
The QB run ends here as the consensus best non-QB in the draft heads to Arizona. Just a few months ago I thought it was almost impossible that Harrison Jr. would be on the board past the third pick but quarterback inflation allows Arizona to get their WR1 for Kyler Murray.
Pick probability: 53.4 percent
I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers keep this pick and Jim Harbaugh drafts his former quarterback so the betting market is implying a trade here. With whom, we shall find out but McCarthy is the favorite to be drafted fifth overall after factoring in his odds to be drafted in the first four picks.
Pick probability: 32.9 percent
Now that the quarterbacks are out of the way, the Giants are projected to get a true WR1 in Nabers. Daniel Jones needs weapons around him and Nabers might be the most explosive player in the draft. If the Giants can walk away with Nabers, that will be a great pick at sixth overall.
Pick probability: 28.4 percent
The top tackle in the draft has been linked to the Titans at this pick for almost the entire time the betting markets have been open. Alt could go at No. 5 if the Chargers were elect to keep their pick but right now, the betting market thinks the Titans get a Day 1 starter on the offensive line.
Pick probability: 44.0 percent
This is where the draft starts to get weird. Latu, Dallas Turner and Byron Murphy all seem to fit here but Latu has taken steam this week to be this pick. However, it comes with less a less than 15 percent chance of happening so the board is wide open here. There are five different players with odds greater than 10 percent to be picked here so the market isn’t showing much confidence as we get past the top seven which causes this mock draft to get a little wonky.
Pick probability: 14.7 percent
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Odunze is the most likely pick here but a pass-rusher is certainly a possibility as well. Odunze has a good chance of going before this pick so that pushes him to the top of the list to be selected ninth overall.
Pick probability: 24.0 percent
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
I’m not sure if the Jets are going to go with Bowers over an offensive tackle to protect Aaron Rodgers but the betting market seems to think so. Honestly, it’s a perfect match. Rodgers adding Bowers as a pass-catcher alongside Garrett Wilson seems like a ton of fun.
Pick probability: 18.4 percent
Due to the odds offered by the betting market, picks after the top 10 have to use a bit of projection. This includes what position a team is expected to draft and individual player draft position over/unders and odds to go in the first round.
12. Denver Broncos: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
21. Miami Dolphins: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
23. Minnesota Vikings (via CLE): Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
29. Detroit Lions : Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
2024-04-24 22:44:35
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