When you compare past first-round mock drafts to the actual selections in any given year, the media consensus about certain prospects doesn’t match up with what the league thinks about those players.
Throughout the predraft process, teams gather intel on prospects that could impact their spots on draft boards. Some incoming rookies have to change positions in the NFL, which makes it difficult to project their roles. Some teams may choose not to gamble on borderline first-rounders with limited starting experience or a recent injury.
Last year, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis sat in the green room through the entire first round and didn’t hear his name called until the Tennessee Titans moved up to No. 33 for him. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez, a popular top-10 pick in mock drafts, went 17th to the New England Patriots.
Who may be available longer than expected during the 2024 NFL draft? Here, we’ve highlighted five potential first-rounders whose draft spot may not align with their offseason buzz and what we’ve seen in recent mock drafts.
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Brock Bowers seems like the most popular pick for the New York Jets at No. 10 overall. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department had Bowers going to Gang Green in its recent three-round mock draftthe B/R, and ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. did the same in his two-round mock.
That projection makes sense based on the Jets’ needs. They should add another offensive playmaker to maximize their time with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Last offseason, the Jets signed wideout Allen Lazard to a four-year, $44 million contract before trading for Rodgers. Lazard had a disappointing 2023 campaign, hauling in only 23 passes for 311 yards and one touchdown.
In March, New York signed former Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams, who is currently recovering from a torn ACL. He expects to be ready for Week 1, but the eighth-year wideout has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons.
If the Jets draft a top wide receiver like Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers (if available) at No. 10, Bowers could take an unexpected tumble. The teams just outside of the top 10 will likely turn their attention to other positions.
The Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) already have a two-time Pro Bowl tight end in T.J. Hockenson. The Denver Broncos (No. 12) have bigger needs at quarterback and cornerback.
The Las Vegas Raiders (No. 13) have second-year tight end Michael Mayer, whom they traded up for in the second round last year. The New Orleans Saints (No. 14) might prefer choose a tackle because Ryan Ramczyk is going through a slow recovery from a knee injury that could sideline him indefinitely, and 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning hasn’t panned out into a full-time starter.
With the 15th pick, the Indianapolis Colts would likely stop Bowers’ slide. But at that point, he would be a draft-day steal.
The B/R Scouting Department has Bowers ranked as its No. 2 overall prospect. He’s arguably the best pass-catching tight end to come out of the collegiate ranks in quite some time.
If Bowers is available when the Colts are on the clock, head coach Shane Steichen should be doing cartwheels in the draft room.
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This past November, Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean fractured his fibula during practice. Despite that injury, most draft analysts see him as a mid-to-late first-round pick.
According to NFL Network’s Ian RapoportDeJean had a solid showing at Iowa’s pro day, which may solidify his spot as a first-round pick. However, multiple teams envision DeJean playing a different position in the NFL, according to ESPN’s Field Yates.
“I think there’s a chance that a lot of teams—as a matter of fact, many teams that I have spoken with continue to view him as a safety prospect,” Yates said on First Draft on Monday (7:10 mark).”
If DeJean moves to safety—a position that’s often much lower on priority lists than cornerback across the league—he may slide in the draft.
Teams might consider DeJean the best player in a weak safety class, but his extensive recovery process coupled with the potential downgrade in positional value could cause him to fall out of the first round.
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At 6’6″ and 342 pounds, Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham looks like a unique prospect. Some teams might be scared off by a pattern of underwhelming tackles coming out of Alabama in recent years, though.
No one should base a prospect’s NFL outlook on the successes or failures of players who came before him from the same school. However, ESPN’s Matt Miller had an interesting theory about why offensive tackles from Alabama haven’t performed up to high expectations over the past several years.
“I know I’m Mr. ‘Scout the Player, Not the Helmet’ but the hit rate on Alabama offensive tackles in the Nick Saban era isn’t great,” Miller wrote on X. “Theory: Players were maxed out by Bama coaching and struggled to adapt outside of system.”
Miller also has concerns about how Latham’s skill set may not completely translate to the NFL.
“Today’s NFL requires movement and agility along the offensive line, as the West Coast system’s roots touch so many playbooks,” Miller wrote. “Tackles who can get to the second level are now a requirement, and that’s not part of Latham’s game.”
Latham will probably be first-round pick, but his play style won’t fit with every team that has a need at offensive tackle. His size also could work against him if clubs prefer that he play guard, a less valuable position.
While Latham may be a top-10 pick as a tackle on some draft boards, he may be a mid-to-late first-round offensive lineman with positional ambiguity on others.
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Ever since J.J. McCarthy helped lead the Michigan Wolverines to a national championship in January, his draft stock has steadily risen.
As a two-year starter at Michigan, McCarthy didn’t post eye-opening passing numbers. That led to questions about his upside and ability to carry an NFL offense if necessary.
Over the past month, SNY’s Connor Hughes and NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero have linked McCarthy to the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, respectively. At this point, he seems like a surefire top-10 pick who’s a trendy option for quarterback-needy teams.
However, those could be predraft smokescreens from teams that want to sway attention away from their actual targets. That’s a well-known misdirection tactic at this juncture of the offseason.
In its latest mock draftB/R’s Scouting Department had the Minnesota Vikings taking McCarthy at No. 11 overall. B/R scout Derrick Classes has him graded as a second-rounder.
McCarthy may not fall out of the first round like Will Levis did last year, but the predraft commentary about his stock may be artificial hype rather than legitimate interest coming from NFL teams.
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More than any other prospect featured here, Amarius Mims will need to benefit from his perceived upside more than his actual collegiate resume.
At Georgia, Mims played as a backup for two years before he earned a starting position at right tackle in 2023. Unfortunately, Mims didn’t start for a full season because of an ankle injury that required surgery.
That has complicated his predraft evaluation. As ESPN’s Jordan Reid noted, teams have varying opinions on Mims’ body of work.
“I’ve gathered that opinions are all over the place on Mims…Mims battled durability concerns throughout the past two seasons, with only eight starts in 30 career games played. He underwent TightRope ankle surgery after three starts last season and even suffered a lower-body injury at the combine. If you told me that Mims would be the best offensive lineman from this class in five years, I’d believe you — but I’d also believe you if you said he would miss a significant amount of time with injuries as a pro.”
Mims’ massive 6’8″, 340-pound frame and impressive small sample size in a starting role could make him a late first-rounder.
However, no one should be surprised if Mims slips to the second round, which lines up with Bleacher Report scout Brandon Thorn’s grade for him.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
2024-04-14 11:00:28
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