Well, that was fun!
After what has been somewhat subdued free agency periods in recent years, 2024 erupted with a flurry of big-time moves. As is always the case, winners and losers abound, and I’m here to break down some of the most notable impacts.
You all know the drill, so I won’t bore you with further commentary. Below are a few of the NFL offseason transactions and how I’m reacting to each of them. If you have a question about a player not listed, please drop me a comment below — you know I’ll answer!
As always, any referenced dynasty Trade Analyzer and player ranking data comes from DynastyLeagueFootball (DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet.
Value Status: Rising
Saquon Barkley signed with Eagles
On one hand, the 27-year-old running back will have greater touch competition than he’s ever had while in New York. On the other hand, his quality touches should also be greater. It’s possible that both Barkley and Jalen Hurts dilute each other’s production here, but I still believe he’s going to push for a career year.
What I’m doing: Holding. Found near 1.06 in rookie pick compensation, I’ll acquire if I can get him closer to 1.08 — unlikely enough to pry him away from existing managers.
Josh Jacobs signed with Packers
Jacobs has never possessed a premium in his dynasty value. His signing, and subsequent release of Aaron Jones by the Packers, is a win-win for all involved. He’ll be the unquestioned focal point in the backfield and should have little problem tallying an RB1 season in his age-26 season
What I’m doing: Buying! Jacobs’ current value is found as the 1.09 in 2024 rookie selection compensation, and he’s in the prime of his career. I’ll happily move a late-first in this draft for a running back with multiple years remaining and a three-down profile.
Zack Moss signed with Bengals
As unlikely as any event from the 2024 free agency period, Moss looks like he may be the new starter for the Bengals. Chase Brown could be falling on this move but, more than likely, the two will form a committee with Moss as the platoon leader.
What I’m doing: Holding. Even with a 2024 rookie selection value of 3.08, I can’t get excited about an acquisition; or, if he’s already on your roster, his return value isn’t enough to consider a trade. That said, Moss opened some eyes when he took over for the injured Jonathan Taylor and there’s enough intrigue here to keep my interest.
Marquise Brown signed with Chiefs
Brown’s value hasn’t adjusted significantly since his signing in Kansas City —take advantage of that market indifference. With a 3.02 2024 rookie selection value combined with the Patrick Mahomes effect, he’s arguably a table-pounding “buy.”
What I’m doing: Buying. I’ve never been a big Brown fan, but he captured my attention in his final year (2021) in Baltimore before moving to the Cardinals. Quarterback quality is a significant determinant in receiver production and he’s now in the penthouse.
Darnell Mooney signed with Falcons
Mooney is rising on my board due to a combination of offense and the presence of Kirk Cousins, a quarterback who should be able to make use of his talents. The Falcons have quietly had a nice offseason and Mooney is a perfect fit to work on crossing patterns or taking the top off the secondary.
What I’m doing: Buying. It shouldn’t be hard to acquire Mooney given his late-third 2024 rookie selection value. While I’m not expecting a huge year, he’ll have the role and offense for a potential upside campaign.
Value Status: Falling
Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons
The 36-year-old veteran leaves proven production in the rear-view mirror for a better contract and a lot of unproven upside in surrounding talent. There’s an excitement level to what Atlanta is doing and they seem to be on their way, but there’s little chance Cousins can retain his 2023 value without Justin Jefferson.
What I’m doing: While his ranking is sliding in dynasty formats, I’m still looking to acquire him if the price is right. He’s currently valued as a 2024 mid-third round rookie selection in single-QB formats and near 1.09 in SuperFlex. He still has QB1 upside.
Justin Fields traded to Steelers
Perhaps the most shocking development was Fields’ lack of suitors. In the end, he goes to an upside situation and is likely an even-odds bet to see time under center by Week 8.
What I’m doing: Fields still carries an early second-round value in single-QB formats considering 2024 rookie selection compensation. That’s too high! Interestingly enough, it’s only modestly higher in SuperFlex — far more intriguing. I’d consider acquisition only in SuperFlex at his current value, but I’m not kicking down doors to get a deal done.
Derrick Henry signs with Ravens
Running backs turning 30 are going in only one direction — down. That said, Henry’s signing in Baltimore couldn’t be a more perfect fit for all involved. All indications suggest the plus-sized runner could have multiple productive years remaining and I’m not betting against him in this situation.
What I’m doing: Buying if I’m competitive. With an early-second round 2024 rookie draft pick value attached, Henry makes for an intriguing addition for competitive dynasty teams and a worthwhile sell for rebuilding teams. There’s something here for everyone.
Tony Pollard signed with Titans
The 2023 upside running back play couldn’t produce following the departure of Ezekiel Elliott, and dynasty managers are selling hand over fist. I don’t blame them. With a value close to 1.11 in 2024 rookie compensation, Pollard has settled into a new range.
What I’m doing: Holding. The real impact of Pollard’s signing is to 2023 rookie running back Tyjae Spears. Pollard still has a good runway for production and could be an intriguing acquisition, though I’d prefer to pay second-round compensation instead.
Tyjae Spears’ balloon pops
This one stings. Spears had the runway, setup and production profile to be a big 2024 riser. Instead, he is the latest poster boy for why dynasty managers can’t add premium to most running backs. Pollard’s arrival ushers in another year of committee usage, reducing the value of all backs in Tennessee.
What I’m doing: Holding. I had hoped Spears would trot out as the lead runner in 2024. Now, his 2.01 2024 rookie pick return value has too much attached premium to consider acquisition. I may even consider selling at this price depending on the drafted situations of the 2024 rookie running backs.
Brian Robinson in decline
Robinson has mostly looked the part as an NFL starter. But the Commanders’ acquisition of Austin Ekeler ushers in an unquestioned committee.
What I’m doing: Selling. In his age-25 season, and with a 2.03 rookie selection value, I’d rather move on from Robinson and reload with one of the 2024 rookie running backs. I don’t want my roster filled with too many “could be” veteran backs.
Roschon Johnson’s value torpedoed
That giant sucking sound is the value of Johnson following the Bears’ signing of D’Andre Swift. Still only 23 and with an upside NFL profile, I think there may be potential here for patient dynasty managers.
What I’m doing: Buying. With a 2.10 2024 rookie selection value, there’s enough value in Johnson that I’m willing to test the trade market. Most of the top rookie runners will be off the board by then and if I can capitalize on a disappointed Johnson manager, I’m willing to acquire at his current value.
Calvin Ridley signed with Titans
I had high hopes for Ridley in 2023 and, while he did have a satisfactory season, he was very inconstant. Now in Tennessee, he’ll have a difficult time replicating his 2023 production.
What I’m doing: He’s a depth-based acquisition target for competing teams only. Possessing a 1.11 rookie selection value, I find it hard to acquire at that price. There’s upside here, but the siren’s call of a rookie selection in this deep class makes it more likely to acquire Ridley in a player-swap trade instead.
Value Status: Holding
D’Andre Swift signed with Bears
What we don’t know is how the Bears envision using Swift. He proved he could stay healthy in 2023 and was a dynamic force with the ball in his hands. He figures to see a lot of receptions and is a fair bet to match or exceed his 229 carries with Philly last season.
What I’m doing: Holding. There’s too much role risk considering his 1.10 2024 rookie selection value. He’s fairly priced, but buying or selling before we know how he’ll be used is too much of a gamble.
Gus Edwards signed with Chargers
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to Edwards, similar to Moss above. In fact, you can copy and paste my Zack Moss narrative and apply it to Edwards.
What I’m doing: Holding. I have a very hard time believing the Chargers aren’t going to add another veteran back along with one via the draft. As it stands, Edwards looks like he’s in line for a big workload, and that may keep him in RB3 territory if this pans out.
Gabe Davis signed with Jacksonville
I would have been higher on Davis in Jacksonville should the team have been able to retain Calvin Ridley. As it stands, Davis will compete with Christian Kirk for WR1 targets and, while I’m high on his experience at the still young age of 25 (on April 1), I’m not as confident in his ability to be a consistent producer.
What I’m doing: If I can acquire Davis for a mid-to-late third-round rookie selection, I’m all over it. But anything with more premium and I’d much prefer to let another manager roster his risk profile. I’ve always liked Davis’ ceiling, but I’m not confident this change of scenery is the answer.
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As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!
(Top photo of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)
2024-03-27 10:32:19
#Dynasty #league #football #predraft #risers #fallers #Saquon #Barkley #Derrick #Henry
