INDIANAPOLIS — With NFL Draft quarterback prospects set to take the field today at Lucas Oil Stadium and a good portion of the scouting process in the books, here’s a rundown of intel from the week at the scouting combine.
I spoke with more than a dozen executives and coaches and asked them to rank the top six quarterbacks in the draft class. The players listed are in order of the consensus.
The USC star is widely viewed as the most talented quarterback in the class. And by sheer talent alone, it’s not even close for some evaluators. Williams is a creative passer who can effectively operate within the play design or off schedule, and he’s viewed as a high-quality person and leader.
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Williams didn’t post a great statistical final season at USC, but that’s been largely dismissed by NFL teams. The consensus is that he was constantly under pressure behind a bad offensive line and was forced to press too much because the Trojans’ defense offered little resistance to opponents. In a way, one evaluator said, that chaotic season was a positive because it prepared him for any adversity he’ll face as a rookie — although the Chicago Bears’ (owners of the No. 1 pick and his presumed landing spot) late-season improvements have rival teams more impressed with the direction of the organization than a year ago.
Teams have questioned whether he’s being pulled in too many directions by those around him who don’t have experience in the draft process along with whether that could become an annoyance in the NFL. But it’s believed Williams has too much dedication to the game and becoming a great player to veer off course. Another unknown element that’s been broached is how Williams will adjust to a pro style offense, but that’s the case for most prospects.
Williams is expected to be the first pick because he’s got franchise-altering ability. As a couple of high-ranking executives put it, “Don’t overthink it. He’s the best player in the draft.”
Caleb Williams has been very comfortable in what can be kind of an overwhelming environment today. pic.twitter.com/S9ItYYtfVn
— Josh Kendall (@JoshTheAthletic) March 1, 2024
2. Drake Maye
Listed by North Carolina at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, Maye boasts a prototypical frame and a massive arm to match. Maye has drawn constant comparisons to Justin Herbert, and evaluators can’t wait to see him throw at his pro day.
“He can throw the s— out of the ball,” an executive said.
Maye was inconsistent last season against a less-than-stellar ACC slate, and that’s caused concern. Still, his size, arm talent, character and leadership are enough to keep him as the second-ranked QB. It’s not the consensus opinion, however, as there are some evaluators who prefer Jayden Daniels at No. 2.
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There’s belief by rival team executives the Washington Commanders are high on Maye and that he should remain the favorite as the second pick.
Drake Maye on learning from Sam Howell at UNC. pic.twitter.com/UVn2tnB7w5
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) March 1, 2024
The Heisman Trophy winner has enjoyed a dramatic rise up draft boards in recent months. His improvements over the last couple of seasons since transferring from Arizona State to LSU have wowed teams, and they’re excited to see how that’ll translate and continue in the NFL.
Daniels, who is viewed as a high-character person, has been impressive in team interviews this week, league sources said. He has electric athleticism with running ability drawing comparisons to Lamar Jackson, although the two-time NFL MVP is viewed as a more physically imposing player.
Jayden Daniels on his meeting with Raiders and old friend Antonio Pierce: pic.twitter.com/1dUbENziyU
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) March 1, 2024
Daniels was listed at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds at LSU, so there’s some concern about the frame and how that could open the possibility for increased injuries. However, high-ranking executives have said that shouldn’t deter the teams from selecting him in the top three.
Daniels doesn’t have the same arm strength as Williams or Maye, and he’s still improving his anticipation as a passer. But he is viewed as a Week 1 starter.
Daniels gained steam this week as the favorite to land in New England at No. 3.
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Teams have been fired up all week to watch McCarthy throw at the combine, as Saturday is going to represent a turning point for his draft buzz. He’s got a good arm and is expected to win the day and wow observers.
McCarthy is viewed as a great leader and plus athlete who didn’t get enough opportunities to show off his arm in Michigan’s run-heavy offense. Because of that, some have questioned how he’ll transition to a pass-heavy offense in the NFL. That’s the unknown element for teams.
McCarthy represents the start of the second tier of QBs, as teams view a tier-drop from Daniels to here. Still, there’s a chance he goes as high as the fourth pick if a team gets anxious enough to select him and decides to trade up with the Arizona Cardinals, whom league sources view as willing to move down.
It’s conceivable the New York Giants (No. 6), Atlanta Falcons (No. 8), Minnesota Vikings (No. 11), Denver Broncos (No. 12), Las Vegas Raiders (No. 13), Seattle Seahawks (No. 16) and Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20) could be in play for McCarthy. Even if it’s just two or three of those teams, it makes a trade up the board more likely, and the action on McCarthy could kick-start the draft-night drama.
Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy: “The only stat I cared about was Ws and we did pretty good in that category.” pic.twitter.com/fLBStan2ty
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) March 1, 2024
5. Bo Nix
It’s not a consensus that McCarthy is ranked ahead of Nix, though the majority do seem to favor McCarthy.
At any rate, Nix is very much in play in the first round. The 24-year-old is mature, and teams appreciate the way he took total control of the Oregon offense at the line of scrimmage — an important factor for evaluators because it tends to shorten the learning curve in the NFL. Evaluators say he is smart and possesses above-average arm strength.
Nix was described as a point guard-style quarterback who can facilitate and deliver the ball quickly. If he can team up with a creative coordinator and lean on his running game, “you can win with him,” an executive said.
Nix is viewed as a fringe first-rounder who might be well off going to a team with him in its longer-term plans. But in the right situation, he could compete to start as a rookie.
The lefty was a captivating story last season, and teams viewed him as a third-rounder who seemed to be rising into the second-round territory. In December, one executive wondered if a team might be desperate and aggressive enough to take Penix in the first round.
However, the performance in the loss in the national championship game highlighted teams’ greatest concerns with Penix. While under constant pressure from Michigan’s pass rush, Penix’s mechanics and accuracy were a major issue, and he took a beating that clearly impacted his game. That element, because of Penix’s injury history (two torn ACLs, two season-ending shoulder injuries), really worried teams.
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On the positive side, Penix has a great arm, throws a good deep ball, largely played very well in clutch situations and is believed to be a strong leader. If he can buck the injury history and improve the mechanical breakdowns while under duress, evaluators believe he can develop into a starter.
Penix’s draft stock is a matter of which qualities teams will prioritize. The belief is he’ll be a fringe second/third-rounder.
(Photos of Drake Maye, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
2024-03-02 10:00:44
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