Two professors from Syracuse University propose alternatives to generate more points.
If Billy Beane, head of operations for the 2002 Moneyball A’s, is credited with marking the turning point for baseball to turn to analytics, Daryl Morey, manager of the Rockets in 2006, is often given the credit for changing the mindset of executives and coaches in the NBA to give the green light to three-point shooting.
Beane was convinced, by pure mathematics, by Paul DePodesta, a disciple of Bill James, considered the father of sabermetrics. Dorsey was joined by Dean Oliver, another student of James, who was the NBA’s first full-time statistical consultant, with the Seattle Sonics in the 2004-2005 season.
Since then, the use of the three-point shot has skyrocketed at a rate that seems to have no ceiling.
In a 103-95 victory for the Sonics over the Sixers in 2004, the Washington quintet made 39 three-pointers and 38 two-pointers, the first time that had happened in the league. It was the box score that Oliver took to support his thesis, one that Dorsey assumed; A team that makes 30 three-pointers only requires 33% effectiveness to achieve the same score (30) as if it made those shots inside the arc, where it would need 50%. Lower risk.
When LeBron James came into the league (2003-2004) teams made 14.9 three-pointers. The current campaign is close to 35, a stretch where the top scorer in history, Stephen Curry, arrived (2010).
In a 103-95 victory for the Sonics over the Sixers in 2004, the Washington quintet made 39 three-pointers and 38 two-pointers, the first time that had happened in the league. It was the box score that Oliver took to support his thesis, one that Dorsey assumed; A team that makes 30 three-pointers only requires 33% effectiveness to achieve the same score (30) as if it made those shots inside the arc, where it would need 50%. Lower risk.
When LeBron James came into the league (2003-2004) teams made 14.9 three-pointers. The current campaign is close to 35, a stretch where the top scorer in history, Stephen Curry, arrived (2010).
Is it pulled too much?
However, two Syracuse University professors are trying to reshape the way teams view 3-pointers.
In a paper titled “Estimating NBA Shot Selection Efficiency from Aggregations of True and Continuous Shot Graphs: A Generalized Additive Model Approach,” Shane Sanders and Justin Ehrlich analyzed seven seasons with shot graphs and They found that the value of a two-pointer is greater than the value of a three-pointer when foul shots are taken into account.
“We found that they went too far in the three-point revolution, and I would say it needs to be reduced from mild to moderate,” Sanders told USA TODAY Sports.
Looking at extensive shot chart data from 2016-2017 through 2022-2023, Sanders and Ehrlich found that the expected value of a two-point attempt is worth 1,096 points and the expected value of a three-point attempt was 1,083 points on the season. 2022-23. The real value, which takes into account free throws, of a two-point shot is 1,181 points and the real value of a three-point shot was 1,094 in the same campaign.
In the process they have created a new team shot chart that incorporates missed shots that included a foul but are not counted as shot attempts in field goal percentages. Together, they found answers that could impact the next wave of basketball strategy.
The study is a finalist in the 2024 research paper competition at the prestigious MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference today and tomorrow in Boston.
The conference is led by co-founders and co-presidents Daryl Morey, president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, and Jessica Gelman, CEO of Kraft Analytics Group. These research articles can be influential and have potential implications for what happens in the evolution of games. In addition to submitting their article, Sanders and Ehrlich sent it to NBA teams’ analytics staffs.
Source: Diario Libre
2024-03-02 00:33:17
#threepointers #NBA #Study #questions #effectiveness #win
