BarcelonaSalvador Illa continues to lead the polls for the 12-M elections. The last one, made public this Sunday by The vanguard, predicts that the PSC would get 41 deputies and remain far ahead of Junts and Esquerra, who continue to compete for second place. In this poll, however, it is Carles Puigdemont’s party that takes advantage and would surpass the Republicans: Together they would obtain 29 seats and ERC, 26. The survey was carried out between March 16 and 20, when the president of the Generalitat , Pere Aragonès, had already announced the electoral advance, but Puigdemont had not yet made his candidacy official, although it was assumed that he would take the step.
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The sum of Junts and ERC would be far from the absolute majority (55 deputies) and they would also not reach the threshold of 68 seats with the 7 deputies of the CUP predicted by the survey, but they would stay at 6 seats. Currently, the three pro-independence parties had an absolute majority and totaled 74 seats. A majority, however, that has been barren throughout the legislature. In general, the three pro-independence parties would suffer a setback compared to the deputies they currently have, the Republicans the most: Junts would lose 3, Esquerra 7 and the CUP 2.
The PP would become the fourth parliamentary force with 15 seats and surpass Vox, which would remain with 8 deputies. The Popular would take most of the Citizens’ pie, which would be left out of Parliament. The Commons, after their no on the budgets, would gain one deputy and would go on to have 9. The survey does not predict that any of the parties of the fourth independence space, such as Alhora of Clara Ponsatí and Jordi Graupera, will enter the Catalan chamber, or Aliança Catalana, by Sílvia Orriols.
The CEO survey
The results of the survey of The vanguard they do not differ much from the last barometer of the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) that was made public this week, although the poll had been done before Aragonès announced the electoral advance. The CEO also predicted a clear victory for Salvador Illa (35-42) and behind ERC and Junts were fighting for second position. In this case, the Republicans (26-32) were ahead of Junts (24-29) and only with the CUP (7-10) could independence reach an absolute majority. In fourth place, the CEO predicted a triple tie between the PP (9-13), Vox (9-13) and the commons (8-13). Citizens would also be left out of Parliament.
The first surveys
A few days after Aragonès announced the May 12 elections, some media already published the first polls. In all of them there was a constant that remains even now: that the PSC wins the elections and that independence could lose the absolute majority. The Spanish i The reason they pointed out that Salvador Illa would get a clear victory, between 36 and 42 seats, and that it would be Junts who would get second place ahead of ERC. He drew the electoral map along the same lines The newspaper and it also gave the juntaires second place behind the PSC and ahead of ERC. This poll gave between 35 and 38 seats to the PSC, while Junts and ERC could tie in a fork of between 29 and 32 deputies, although the Juntarians would slightly exceed the Republicans in vote percentage (18.5% to 18% respectively).
In the three polls, the PP was also the fourth largest force in Parliament, with between 12 and 14 seats and ahead of Vox, which obtained a margin of between 7 and 11 deputies. The Spanish i The reason they predicted a decline in the commons, which would remain with 5-6 deputies (currently they have 8), as well as the CUP, which would go from the current 9 deputies to 4-7. The newspaper, on the other hand, predicted a tie between the CUP and the commons with a margin of between 7 and 9 parliamentarians, and it is the only survey that predicts that Aliança Catalana could enter Parliament with 3 deputies. In all three polls Ciutadans would be left out of the Catalan chamber.
2024-03-24 12:49:09
#polls #12M #elections
