As we turn our attention to the NFL draftit seems at least possible that the Cleveland Browns could once again be focusing on drafting a wide receiver. GM Andrew Berry selected WR Cedric Tillman with the team’s first pick last year after adding David Bell and Anthony Schwartz in the third round of previous drafts.
So far, Berry has been much better at acquiring receivers through trades (Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy) than drafting them.
Every position is difficult to scout in the NFL but receiver seems to have an extra level of difficulty to it over the last 10 years. With college teams running more spread out systems against more zone defenses, receivers look explosive on tape but are unable to translate it to the NFL level.
Everyone values different things at the position. Some care about straight-line speed, others change of direction while still others care about size. For this writer, the ability to separate (in whatever way), good route running and great hands are the biggest values.
Given the stragglers of Schwartz, among others in Browns history, catching the football is high on most fans’ lists. Players like Xavier Worthy in this year’s NFL draft are fast but concerns about their hands are evident as well.
Fans and media focus a lot of energy on dropped passes. The idea is that catching the ball is the first and only priority for a receiver. Failing to do so is failing to do their job.
It makes the following information all the more surprising:
Most drop in the NFL over the past five years (PFF):
Tyreek Hill (36)
Diontae Johnson (33)
Deebo Samul (33)
D.K. Metcalf (33)
Stefon Diggs (32)Man, these guys all suck!
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 12, 2024
(Samuel’s name is misspelled in the tweet)
Four of the best receivers in football and a very good receiver (Johnson) leading the league in drops over a five-year period feels wrong. How can these five have the most drops and be considered very good receivers? Should that change how we evaluate receivers in the upcoming NFL draft or are these five just outliers somehow?
A follow-up set of data points gives more perspective on drop percentages since the above receivers tend to get a lot of passes thrown their way:
Tyreek 6.5%, Deebo 10.3%, DK 7.6%, Diontae 7.3%, Diggs 5.7%.
Top-5 WRs in drop % with 100+ targets during that span:
Jalen Guyton (14.9%)
Justin Watson (12.8%)
Chris Conley (11.3%)
Van Jefferson (11.2%)
Michael Gallup (11%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 13, 2024
Interesting here is that you don’t find many big names on the list with the top drop percentage. For perspective, Guyton has been targeted 130 times and Watson 124 times in those five years compared to over 600 targets for Hill and Johnson both.
Moral of the story: If you are making an impact, you will get a lot of balls thrown your way and dropping a percentage of them should be expected. Samuel, for example, is in the top five of total drops and isn’t far off from the top five in drop percentages.
Moral of the story #2: If you aren’t making an impact when the ball is thrown your way and are dropping the ball, you probably will get a lot less targets.
Are you surprised by either of the drop data points above? Does it impact your thoughts on scouting receivers for the upcoming NFL draft?
2024-03-23 19:43:06
#NFL #draft #prep #NFL #WRs #drop #lot #passes
