KíivThe sound of gunfire takes on a special importance in a war. Talking to Ukrainian soldiers about their personal evolution and expertise with weapons over the past two years of conflict, they all emphasize that they have gained a keen ear. It’s an almost instinctive ability, which becomes a cornerstone of survival on the front line. The military has learned to differentiate the sound of gunfire from the Russians who attack them, from the gunfire of the Ukrainians who respond. They also know which shots correspond to artillery and which to projectiles fired from a missile launcher.
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In the Zaporizhia area of southeastern Ukraine, a half-hour drive from the front line, during the start of the invasion in 2022, doctors tried to calm visibly nervous journalists by explaining- those that the thundering sound of the Ukrainian artillery was a positive sign, while the “silence” could be a threat. “We are always troubled by this tense silence, because the enemy may be lurking and rearming, and consequently there may always be trouble,” said a thirty-year-old surgeon as he lit a cigarette, the only source of light in a place where it was better to be in the dark to avoid becoming a target.
Today, Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines fear silence even more. Specifically, the silence of their own weapons. It is what the country’s media have dubbed “ammunition starvation”, that is, the lack of projectiles to continue fighting due to the reduction of military aid to Ukraine by Western countries and especially from the United States.
The long pauses of the Ukrainian artillery became for Oleksandr (not a real name), an infantry soldier of the 53rd brigade, an omen that Avdíivka would not withstand the onslaught of Russian forces. His mission and that of his comrades in arms was to cover the withdrawal of other brigades from this city in eastern Ukraine. He explains that the Russians were leading “meat assaults”: that is, dozens of soldiers appeared suddenly in a chain and bombarded the Ukrainian positions. “On the other hand, during the last weeks, we almost didn’t shoot. We only did it in very critical situations and in key places”, laments Oleksandr. They had to save ammunition. The soldier believes that if they had enough bullets and projectiles, the city would not have fallen into Russian hands.
A few tens of kilometers away is Kostiantínivka, which is a critical location for Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the direction of the city of Bakhmut, also in the east of the country. This area is a crucial enclave of Donbas. However, the news coming from there does not present an encouraging picture for the Ukrainian army. The Russians have concentrated a considerable force in the area, which just a year ago was one of the logistics centers where Ukrainian troops were supplied.
The mood of the soldiers
Gunner Mario calmly analyzes the situation, while chewing sausage and drinking tomato juice. As an experienced soldier who has been at the front for a long time, he does not tend to dramatize the situation. Despite this, he compares the current mood of the Ukrainian military to what it was when they arrived in Donetsk in the summer of 2022. At the time, Europe was still “hesitating” whether or not to provide arms to Ukraine. At that time, there was not even talk of sending missile launchers there, and Ukrainian forces were not optimistic about the progress of the war. Everything changed, however, when they managed to recover the city of Kharkiv. “The allies finally recognized the Ukrainian potential,” he says. A potential that is now waning. “The gunners barely have between ten and fifteen projectiles to fire a day. Instead, we hear the Russians firing non-stop with their machine guns from the helicopters,” he says.
This acoustic analysis of the evolution of the war is also confirmed by sources from the General Staff, who prefer to remain anonymous. The problem is not so much the shortage of weapons, as the lack of ammunition, they insist. Ukraine currently has only 15% of the supplies needed to contain the Kremlin’s military. “For Ukraine to advance in the war, it needs supplies three times higher than those of the enemy. But we have never had this amount of weapons. Not even at the beginning of the counteroffensive,” says the same source.
50% of the Ukrainian arsenal depends on contributions from foreign partners, while Ukraine acquires the other 50% by itself. Apart from the lack of ammunition, where the advantage of the Russian side is one to five, systems are also needed to shoot down drones. “Sometimes it is difficult to understand the logic of the allies”, criticizes the representative of the General Staff. For example, he regrets that they have not provided Ukraine with portable anti-aircraft missile systems.
Mykola Beleskov, an analyst at the National Institute of Strategic Research of Ukraine, emphasizes that compensating for the shortage of ammunition in the war is impossible even with drones. According to him, the real figures are even more discouraging than those provided by the General Staff. He estimates that Ukraine maintains the 880-kilometer front line with 1,500 rounds a day, while Russian forces fire 10,000 projectiles. “North Korea has provided three million missiles to Russia and this will make the situation even worse,” laments the analyst. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Ukraine has a month to find the necessary ammunition to defend the front. The countdown has already started.
2024-03-02 21:23:45
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