The annotation in the NBA reached unsuspected peaks during the 2023-2024 season, both on a collective and individual level. However, in recent weeks, those offensive explosions have been fading and being replaced by much more earthly markers in line with what usually happens in the Playoffs.
To confirm this trend, the Philadelphia 76ers and the New York Knicks played this Sunday, March 10, the game of smaller score it’s from the season: the Sixers won 79-73a result that until recently could easily have been that of a first half.
But What is the reason for and how is this marked decline in scoring explained, after the weeks of rest for the All-Star? Is it a simple drop in team production, a rise in defensive intensity… or something else? Certain numbers help us get closer to an answer.
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Why has scoring plummeted at this stage of the NBA season?
First, it is worth confirming the theory that indeed, they are seeing lowest markers in the last month of the Regular Phase. And to do this, you don’t have to dive too deep into the statistics. It’s simple: before the All-Star, the average points for a team was 115.5 units. After the All-Star, that average has dropped to 111.8 so many.
The drop is significant and takes on more value if we take into account that it is an average per game, for the 30 teams in the league. There is no doubt that less is being scored. A lot less.
The reasons for this withdrawal may be several: injuries around the league, right loss of rhythm linked to the break for the All-Star or a increase defensive intensitytaking into account the proximity of the Playoffs and the fight for positioning in both Conferences.
All these arguments are valid, but they do not fully explain such a change. And at the end of the day, they are still subjective explanations, with no way to reliably verify them.
However, something very different happens when the pre and post All-Star numbers are analyzed, specifically in regards to how are they refereeing the matches. And there, the change is even more significant than the average points.
He free throw rate (FTR) It is a formula to measure how many free throws a team attempts, in relation to its shots. For example, if in a game 25 free shots and 100 shots at the rim are taken, the rate is 25%.
Well, before All-Star, this FTR was from 25,4% around the league. But since All-Star, the average mark of the 30 teams is only 22,5%. At the same time, in the first part of the campaign, 19,4 infractions per game, per team. But in the last month, that figure drops to 17,5 fouls.
NBA referees are calling far fewer fouls per game. Which results in fewer free throws and therefore fewer points. These changes are not new, if we take into account that they occur in each campaign: it is refereed in one way in the Regular Phase and in a very different – more permissive – way in the Playoffs.
Without going any further, the FTR in the 2022-2023 Regular Phase was 24,7%but once the Playoffs arrived, the mark dropped to 22,6%. This happens year after year.
What is surprising is that in this case, the change of course was not made in the postseason, but two months before it. Intentionally? Impossible to know, but when there is a such a marked trend around the entire league, logic suggests that this is not a coincidence, but a directive.
It is worth remembering that during the All-Star, the commissioner Adam Silver confirmed that various coaches have asked him rule changes, to level out the disadvantage that defenders have today in relation to attackers. In turn, Silver remarked: “I want to dispel the idea that league offices believe high-scoring games are a good thing. What we want are competitive games“.
Since then, that’s exactly what has happened: lower scores and, consequently, a higher probability that they will end up being competitive and not with irrecoverable differences, as was frequently seen during the first half of 2023-2024.
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2024-03-11 05:12:24
#scoring #plummeted #stage #NBA #season
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