Every weekend, it’s the same story. In a Championship as close as the Top 14, each day is extremely important and each victory can make it possible to make gaps. Last weekend, for the 19th day, the victory of UBB over Toulouse constituted a big step in the race for the play-offs for the Bordelo-Béglais, while the success of Perpignan in Oyonnax undoubtedly sealed the relegation Oyomen in Pro D2. As the last quarter of the season begins on Saturday and almost all clubs still have a lot to play for, an overview of the challenges of the last seven days.
Stade Français and Toulouse, the only teams almost guaranteed to qualify
Both very efficient during the doubles (the Championship days which coincide with international matches), Stade Français (1st, 59 points) – which has the advantage of not having too many internationals – and Toulouse (2nd, 56 points) – thanks to an exceptional squad depth – are the two leaders of this Top 14 and will qualify, barring a huge surprise, for the play-offs. Better: with 10 and 7 points respectively on 3rd (UBB, 49 points), they also have a good chance of qualifying directly for the semi-finals.
This is particularly true for Toulouse, which could finish strong with the return of its internationals, back from the Tournament, as well as Antoine Dupont, back from VII and brilliant against the UBB. Not to mention the return of Romain Ntamack. The Stade Français reception; during the 23rd day, will undoubtedly be decisive in the fight for 1st place. But the Parisians are not to be outdone and in fact won on the first leg. The challenge for both teams will therefore be not to break down in this final straight to secure the first two places.
A breathtaking race to the dams…
Behind these two leaders, nothing has yet been done to obtain the four remaining jump-off places. Six teams – UBB, Racing 92, Toulon, La Rochelle, Castres and Pau – are within 4 points, one victory apart, from 3rd to 8th place. But if the ranking is very close, differences could be made in the coming days.
UBB (3rd, 49 points), Racing 92 (4th, 48 points) and La Rochelle (6th, 46 points) are counting on the reinforcement of their internationals, who distinguished themselves for their return last weekend, to secure their place. One factor to take into account, however: the upcoming Champions Cup fixtures, in which the three teams mentioned are still in the running. The competition could tire the organizations, in particular those of Rochelais, who will travel to Cape Town (South Africa) to face the Stormers.
…and a 6th place that many teams are fighting for
In the event that the three clubs mentioned above qualify, there would only be one play-off place left for three other clubs (or perhaps more). Before the 20th day, these are Toulon (5th, 46 points), Castres (7th, 45 points) and Pau (8th, 45 points). The three teams alternate between the good and the less good and also have the same record in 2024: three wins for five defeats in the Top 14. All have also played more matches at home (10) than away (9). ) and will therefore have to travel four times in the last seven days, which could complicate their hopes of qualification.
Enough for their two pursuers to benefit? These are Bayonne (9th, 43 points) and Clermont (10th, 42 points), two teams whose record currently includes more defeats than victories and whose next few days will be decisive. Aviron Bayonnais, still undefeated at home this season, will play big on Sunday against Toulon, in a match relocated to Anoeta (San Sebastian, Spain). A victory could open up their prospects for a top 6 finish, while a defeat would doom their play-off hopes.
Clermont can also believe in the play-offs, mathematically speaking, even if the schedule for Christophe Urios’ men is less obvious, with four trips, to Racing 92, Toulon or Bordeaux, and the reception of Stade Français, leader.
An equally tight fight to maintain
The fight for survival should also be very interesting. Because if 14th place, synonymous with direct relegation in Pro D2, seems promised to Oyonnax (26 points) – which has won only one of its last ten matches and which is 11 units behind Montpellier – 13th place, that of the accession play-off against the loser of the Pro D2 final, should be the subject of a three-way fight between Perpignan (11th, 39 points), Lyon (12th, 38 points) and Montpellier (13th, 37 points ) who will do everything to avoid it.
Three teams who will also explain themselves directly during these last days, with three matches which will smell like powder: Perpignan-Lyon (21st day), Montpellier-Perpignan (22nd day) and Montpellier-Lyon (25th day).
