Searching for answers: The dilemma facing Daniil Medvedev in a changing tennis landscape

Over the past five years, he has become a key figure on the circuit. As much by his improbable style, his ability to thwart his adversaries, his disarming sincerity and his humor as by his performances of course. Since his breakthrough in 2019, Daniil Medvedev has rarely left the world Top 5. And in recent months, he has even cemented his place in what could be somewhat presumptuously described as the new “Big 4” of world tennis behind Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

He has also reached the last two Grand Slam finals at the US Open and the Australian Open, as well as that of Indian Wells a few days ago. However, the Russian has a problem: he no longer wins in the end, even on hard courts, his favorite terrain. Even more worrying for him, the two big names of the new generation, Alcaraz and Sinner, are beating him more and more regularly. Finalist in Melbourne and Indian Wells, the protégé of Gilles Cervara is actually having a successful start to the season, but is he not at the same time reaching his glass ceiling?

Faced with Carlos, I felt a little short of solutions

His comments at a press conference after his setback in the Californian desert are in no way likely to resolve the issue. “I have no regrets, I’m happy. The last time I went to the final in Indian Wells, I won in Miami (last year, Editor’s note), so that’s what I’m going to try to do. In my opinion, Carlos just managed to raise his level of play even more and I got a little tired mentally and physically. I hope it was just that. But you never know, maybe that I lost a little belief in my ability to win after the first set. To be honest, in the second set, I felt a little short of solutions,” he confessed.

In fact, Medvedev impresses with his consistency in excellence and is undeniably improving. Last year at Indian Wells, he criticized a surface that did not suit him because it was too close to clay – slow hard and high bounce – before reaching the final. At the time, we could perhaps put this fine run down to confidence since he had won three tournaments. But by repeating this performance this season, when he has not won a title for almost a year (Rome in May 2023), he showed that he had further solidified his average level.

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And even in the final against Alcaraz, the Russian installed an arm wrestle during a set, which he had been incapable of in 2023. So there is not a world of difference. However, at the peak of their abilities, both the Spaniard and Sinner seem to have something extra. “Medvedev had a two set lead against Jannik Sinner in the final of the Australian Open by playing much more aggressively than he is used to,” notes Mats Wilander, consultant for Eurosport. “And I think that the all the best now know how to play it depending on the surface, unless Medvedev tries to hurt them more. If he plays at his best in his style, he is not going to beat Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic at their best, that won’t be enough anymore. They understand that now.”

To compete, he must force his nature like in Melbourne

In other words, by playing his tennis, Medvedev no longer surprises the big names as was the case during his explosion in the summer of 2019. At the time, his fiery serve combined with his metronome side, his trajectories of grazing bullets and his incredible ground coverage for a large stake made him a difficult UFO to apprehend. But by practicing it, Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner ended up exploiting a few flaws such as its very remote position on the restart, their talent and their aggressiveness doing the rest. Now, at the top of their game, they have somehow solved the riddle. So, Medvedev has no choice: he must force his nature.

“In the second set in the final at Indian Wells, he was a little down,” Wilander added. “As if he was saying to himself: ‘Wow, these guys are progressing faster than me.’ Is it because they are in their 20s or because Medvedev is getting closer to 30? Or for some other reason? I’m sure it’s in his head and I’m sure he’ll find the explanation eventually. But it’s going to be frustrating for him. It just means he has to win every tournament he doesn’t play them in to build the confidence that allows him to take his chances, to take more risks like he did against Sinner in Melbourne.”

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Maybe not the best, but an outstanding strategist

In the meantime, Medvedev has placed himself in the background. As if he had accepted this position of fourth man. “Carlos and Jannik have already asserted themselves. But will they win 9, 10, 12 Grand Slams each, which is fantastic, or will they chase Novak at 25, which is even more special? You never know. I “I’m sure Carlos and Jannik will win a lot, but as long as I play, I hope I can sometimes try to beat them because it’s a very difficult task,” he said with humility.

Unless it’s a way of taking pressure off yourself or putting it on the shoulders of your young rivals. Because Medvedev is also a great chess player and against opponents with more impactful advantages, this is a valuable quality. Failing to supplant them, he has not at all given up playing the role of obstacle to going in circles.

2024-03-21 22:44:00
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