The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly positioned themselves to enter the postseason as at least a 5-seed. A key to their success is the new, old role of Zion Williamson – the greatest strength is actually different. Can the team become a dark horse?
by Ole Frerks
Attention is a double-edged sword. The Pelicans and especially Zion Williamson can sing a song about it – over the past few years, but also this year. There was a point in the season when New Orleans was on everyone’s lips – namely the low point, the 44-point defeat against the Lakers in the in-season tournament, after the (also media) body shaming of Williamson became even more socially acceptable for a few days was than already.
Since then, things have become quiet around Zion and the Pels, even by their standards. It’s not a big deal that they are clearly ahead of the Lakers in the table, in fifth place in the Western Conference. Or that they have a better net rating than 25 NBA teams, including contenders like Denver, Phoenix or Milwaukee.
Or that they currently have the longest winning streak in the league. Or that Zion has 53 appearances and is not far away from his personal career high (61 games).
He now even has the chance to qualify for an All-NBA team, something he has never achieved in his five-year career.
The most important thing in brief
There are a whole host of reasons why other teams are more in focus and that Zion has also been “supplanted” by other young players. A not unimportant one might be: It’s pretty difficult to make sense of the current version of the Pelicans – and their most famous player.
There are a lot of things that don’t quite add up in New Orleans. For example: According to the rating, the team’s greatest strength is its defense (the seventh best in the league), although its three stars are not good defenders and the starting five does not defend at a top 10 level (118 points per 100 possessions are allowed – equivalent). 20th place).
Even stranger is the following fact: According to Cleaning the Glass, team performance is better when Zion is not on the court. Defensively, this isn’t surprising, but this season, for the first time in his career, the offense is also less effective (by at least 3.5 points) when Zion plays. His on/off value is currently the worst in the entire active rotation (-6.1). How can that be?
New Orleans Pelicans: The trump card is depth
To answer this question, it’s worth first looking at the Pelicans’ greatest strength. This is undoubtedly their depth – hardly any other team can use so many capable players when everyone is healthy. Trey Murphy III in particular is a player who could start for almost any team.
Murphy, but also Larry Nance and Jose Alvarado with their defense or even rookie Jordan Hawkins are players who can completely change a game.
Some of them are also players who complement the stars better than the other stars – for example, because they enable more floor spacing and better defense. Alvarado (+11.2), Murphy (+9.6) and Naji Marshall (+5.5) are the Pels players with the best on/off values, which is not exactly surprising. They are complementary players who are easy to integrate and don’t take anything away from anyone. That’s not really the case with the best players in the squad.
It’s important to emphasize that the Pelicans don’t play poorly when Zion is on the court – their net rating with Williamson on the court is still clearly positive (+2.5). It’s just not the best version of their team right now. Which speaks for the depth of the squad and at the same time highlights a few complications.
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The Return of Point Zion
Over the course of the season, Willie Green decided to put the ball more in Zion’s hands again – i.e. to use him as “Point Zion”, like Stan Van Gundy did years ago. That helped Zion and makes sense once you see the Pels play: Zion’s fear of drives and rim pressure is still so great that he almost automatically draws a double team as a ball handler, even though he hasn’t scored as compellingly this season like in previous years.
Opposing teams’ attempts to build a wall in front of Zion create space for his teammates, and Zion is a capable and willing passer in these situations. It’s easy to work with offensively – the more shooting that surrounds Williamson, the better. With CJ McCollum (41.1%), Murphy (36.4%), Hawkins (39.3%) and Herb Jones (43.7%), the Pelicans have various very good catch-and-shooters for exactly this setup .
Zion is not a magic passer like Luka Doncic, but he has excellent court vision and a good feel for when and where gaps arise. The 23-year-old has distributed 6.2 assists over his last 20 games, and the trend is rising. McCollum in particular has increasingly developed into an off-ball player during this period, which has significantly improved the balance.
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Zion & Ingram: It’s complicated
However, the offense is not completely balanced, which is made clear not least by the fact that it is more effective during this period when Zion is not playing. Partly that’s because “Point Zion” puts Brandon Ingram in a role that doesn’t suit him.
The “other” playmaking forward is more of a driving force behind the offense than a floor spacer; Zion, on the other hand, doesn’t throw at all outside the zone and is therefore not an effective off-ball player. The fit between the two remains complicated – and it can be argued that Ingram is actually the better offensive anchor this season.
At least the numbers do that, relatively clearly. The Pelicans’ net ratings and offensive ratings this season paint a surprising picture:
– Ingram, Williamson both on court: +2.4 – 116.9 offensive rating
– Williamson on the court, Ingram off the court: +2.8 – 116.5 offensive rating
– Ingram on the court, Williamson off the court: +8.1 – 121.5 offensive rating
On the one hand, it is a luxury to have both and to be able to set up the offense over 48 minutes via a veritable playmaking forward. On the other hand, it would be even better if the two best players maximized each other on the court – they haven’t done that yet.
Are the forwards too similar?
Ingram and Zion couldn’t look more physically different, but they are similar in certain respects: both actually need the ball in their hands to be effective, neither are proven shooters (Ingram far more so than Zion), defenders (even if Zion last looks significantly better than at the beginning of the season) or rebounder.
Both are pretty good scorers in their own right – Ingram as a variable three-level scorer, Zion as a steam ram with a dominant area, even if he finishes at the ring a little less often than in his first years. Both are strong playmakers for their positions, above-average pick & roll ball handlers and almost equally efficient isolation scorers.
It’s obviously a little easier now to create working lineups around one of these players. Small-ball with Zion at five could in theory be a “counterattack” against it, but it doesn’t work long-term due to the defensive limitations. The ideal solution is still being sought, which is often noticeable at the end of close games.
How good are the Pelicans really?
In “clutch” games as defined by “nba.com”, the Pels not only have a negative record (10-13), but also the fifth-worst offense and the third-worst net rating (actually the worst: Washington and Detroit count not). In games decided by a 1-3 point difference, their record is 1-6, no team is worse.
These are the favorites for the MVP award
Three quarters of the season have now passed and it is becoming increasingly clear which players have the best chance of winning the MVP award. After Finals MVP Nikola Jokic won twice in a row, Joel Embiid was honored last season. ran shows the best MVP odds (source: Draft Kings/as of March 10, 2024).© 2023 Getty Images
10th place (shared): LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers)
Quote: +50000
A bet of $100 would get you $50,100© 2023 Getty Images
10th place (shared): Kevin Durant (Phoenix Suns)
Quote: +50000
A $100 bet would net you $50,100.© ZUMA Wire
10th place (shared): Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)
Quote: +50000
A $100 bet would net you $50,100.© 2023 Getty Images
Platz 9: Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Quote: +40000
A $100 bet would net you $40,100.© 2023 Getty Images
Platz 8: Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks)
Quote: +30000
If you bet $100 you would get $30,100.© Getty Images
Platz 7: Kawhi Leonard (Los Angeles Clippers)
Quote: +25000
A bet of $100 would get you $25,100.© Getty Images
Platz 6: Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Quote: +15000
A bet of $100 would get you $15,100.© Getty Images
Platz 5: Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)
Quote: +2500
If you bet $100, you would get $2,600.© Xinhua
Platz 4: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
Quote: +1800
If you bet $100 you would get $1900.© Icon Sportswire
Platz 3: Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)
Quote: +700
If you bet $100 you would get $800.© Getty Images
Platz 2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Quote: +265
If you bet $100 you would get $365.© Icon Sportswire
Platz 1: Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
Quote: -190
A bet of $190 would get you $290.© ZUMA Wire
In games like this – generally often in duels against the really good teams, which NOLA doesn’t win very often – it is not uncommon for the egalitarian offense and the lack of a “real” point guard to play against them. It’s not that easy to let everything go through Zion due to their free throw weakness (69.5%).
And then there’s the defense – which means that in clutch situations there isn’t always room for Zion and Ingram (and McCollum) on the court at the same time. Green often has to juggle; there is no ideal closing lineup.
It remains complicated
As mentioned at the beginning, it’s not easy to make sense of the Pelicans. Perhaps this problem extends to their opponents in a possible playoff run. Zion has never been on the court in the postseason in his career. As of now, New Orleans even has an outside chance of home advantage in round one.
Despite all the questions that accompany this team – some things are obviously going right, above all the Pelicans and Zion are in the process of delivering a largely healthy season for the first time in years. In the last few weeks, Zion has looked more mobile, livelier and more athletic than at any other time this season.
The attention will now return one way or another. Let’s see if this will be a good thing this time.
2024-03-12 13:42:00
#Column #Return #Point #Zion #dangerous #Pelicans
