Barcelona Iran is holding legislative elections this Friday at a critical moment for the regime, which is facing widespread disaffection and an ever-deepening crisis of legitimacy. The elections that will also elect the Assembly of Experts, the body that chooses the supreme leader, the most powerful figure in the country and the head of its armed forces. The schools were supposed to close at six in the afternoon local time, but the authorities have extended the elections for another two hours, although there have been no crowds.
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Amid calls for a boycott and with low turnout expected, Iran’s political landscape is fraught with tension and uncertainty. It is the first election since the protests over the killing of young Mahsa Gina Amini at the hands of the morality police for not wearing the veil in accordance with the Islamic Republic’s strict rules.
The latest polls indicate that only 34% of voters plan to go to the polls, a percentage that among young people under 29 falls to 19%. This disinterest underscores a growing chasm between the Iranian government and its citizens, especially the younger generation. The reasons for this electoral apathy are multiple. A significant portion of the population expresses a deep lack of trust in both the candidates and the government, along with the belief that their votes cannot be translated into any meaningful change. This sentiment is compounded by dissatisfaction with President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, with 65% disapproving of the regime’s economic mismanagement, corruption and restrictive social policies.
At the heart of the crisis is the legitimization of the regime of the ayatollahs. For decades, Iran’s clerical establishment has seen voter turnout as a hallmark of its legitimacy. Now the resentment with the leadership and the memory of the brutal repression of the 2022 protests, the regime has a difficult time convincing the population of the validity of the electoral process.
Disqualified candidates
The electoral process has also been marked by the disqualification of many reformist and moderate candidates, a move that has narrowed the political spectrum and intensified accusations of “engineering” or electoral rigging. Prominent figures such as jailed human rights activist Narges Mohammadi and political dissidents have called for a boycott of the polls and called participation in elections under the current regime a betrayal of the cause of democracy and justice. The silencing of voices in favor of political reform has led to a tougher dominance in all branches of government, further exacerbating public distrust and apathy towards the electoral process.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials have called for the vote and framed participation as a patriotic duty. These are appeals that are met with skepticism and even total rejection among large segments of the population.
Another factor in the tension is the advanced age of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. On the campaign trail, two candidates have made statements suggesting that Khamenei does not want his son, Mojtaba, to succeed him, a move that seems ready to go. The cleric Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi, an ally of Khamenei and a member of the Assembly, and Mostafà Pourmohammadi, who received authorization at the last moment to appear there, have assured that Khamenei does not want a hereditary succession. A speech that only aims to convince Iranians that the relay has not yet been decided and that it is worth going to the polls. The debate is intensifying over the Assembly’s key role in choosing the next leader and mixed signals about possible successors, reflecting the tension and uncertainty surrounding the political future and succession planning.
These elections are a litmus test for the regime’s credibility and public confidence in the electoral process. Iran is still reeling from severe economic problems, social restrictions and the aftermath of the 2022 protests. The low turnout projection is a stark reminder of the challenges facing Iran’s leadership. With the election upon us, the question remains: Can the regime bridge the ever-widening chasm with its citizens, or will the polls deepen the legitimacy crisis facing Iran’s clerical establishment? The answer to this question will have profound implications not only for Iran’s domestic politics, but also for its position on the world stage.
The outcome of these elections and the public’s response to the regime’s appeals will undoubtedly shape Iran’s political landscape for years to come, potentially signaling a shift in the balance of power or consolidating thethe state in which. With the international community watching closely, these elections test Iran’s political stability and the resilience of the ruling establishment amid mounting internal and external pressures.
2024-03-01 15:24:39
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