The NFL offseason is well underway, and there has been no shortage of splash moves.
The biggest was quarterback Kirk Cousins going from Minnesota to Atlanta in free agency, but big-time trades have also shaken up depth charts with more QBs (Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields) and wide receivers (Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson, Jerry Jeudy) relocating.
There’s still plenty of time for teams to reinforce their rosters ahead of — and after — April’s NFL Draft, but with a majority of the big moves likely in the books, it got us wondering: Who’s had the best offseason so far? And who’s had the worst?
To help answer those questions, we turn to my NFL Projection Model. The primary purpose of this model is to project the outcomes of games, but the foundation of the model is built on evaluating players. Using different advanced metrics from TruMedia, Pro Football Focus and other sources, I can assign a value to every player in the NFL. How can this value be interpreted? Think of it as how much a player would affect the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.
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After assigning a value to every player, I went through every team transaction this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 20). Since I’m only looking at how this affects each team for the 2024 NFL season, this does not factor in length of contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players who are changing teams. Players who have re-signed with their team aren’t included because that player’s value was already included in his team’s projection.
The table below shows how many points a team added or lost in the offseason. The best way to think about the values is like a team’s point differential. For example, the Chicago Bears had a minus-19 point differential last season. So far this offseason, they’ve added 26 points of value throughout a season, which would have them projected for a plus-7 point differential.
Five biggest winners
Atlanta Falcons
Top-10 (ish) quarterbacks don’t hit free agency too often, so the Falcons are the biggest winners of the offseason by far after landing Cousins. Cousins isn’t likely to be a top-five quarterback, but he has one of the higher floors around, and you’re consistently going to get good enough production to make you a contender. There is some risk with Cousins coming off an Achilles injury entering his age-36 season, but the Falcons are upgrading the game’s most important position by a mile, and that’s going to make you the offseason champion just about every time.
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Chicago Bears
The Bears were the beneficiaries of the Los Angeles Chargers shedding cap space by acquiring Allen via trade. That’s one of the best moves of the offseason outside of the quarterback position and should make life easier on Caleb … whichever quarterback they take in April’s NFL Draft. Outside of the Allen trade, the Bears didn’t make a lot of headlines. However, adding tight end Gerald Everett, center Coleman Shelton and running back D’Andre Swift were all seen as positive additions by my model.
Keenan Allen is at Caleb Williams’ Pro Day 👀 pic.twitter.com/bsS4Y4vxSn
— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) March 20, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers
It wasn’t too long ago that you’d think Russell Wilson would be comparable to Cousins, but that’s not the case anymore. However, even with him being a shadow of his former self, this is a big acquisition for the Steelers. The Steelers have had nothing but subpar quarterback play since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and despite that, they still somehow keep winning football games. My model thinks Wilson is a big upgrade over Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, but his play is still declining, so I wouldn’t get too excited.
Detroit Lions
It’s not shocking the Lions bolstered the trenches this offseason as that’s been a staple of the Dan Campbell era in Detroit. The Lions’ additions are highlighted by edge Marcus Davenport, defensive tackle DJ Reader and guard Kevin Zeitler. Jonah Jackson departed for the Rams, but Zeitler should be an upgrade on the offensive line. C.J. Gardner-Johnson left, which is a smaller loss, but the blow isn’t as big with the additions along the defensive line.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have been very active this offseason. They acquired cornerback L’Jarius Sneed from the Chiefs, signed cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, wide receiver Calvin Ridley, and center Lloyd Cushenberry III. Yes, they lose long-time running back Derrick Henry, but they mitigated some of that loss by signing Tony Pollard. Overall, there are a lot of moving parts, but they should see significant improvements in their defensive backfield by adding Sneed and Awuzie.
Five biggest losers
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings lost Cousins, pass rushers Danielle Hunter and Davenport along with Hicks, so it’s not hard to imagine why they’re the biggest losers of the offseason so far.
However, they have added Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard, running back Aaron Jones and linebacker Blake Cashman to offset their losses. In fact, if you take out Cousins’ departure, the Vikings would be the third biggest winner of the offseason. Unfortunately for them, quarterback is kind of important.
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Denver Broncos
The movement with the quarterback position will cause the winners and losers to be the inverse of each other to some degree, but the Broncos also traded away Jeudy and saw Lloyd Cushenberry III leave for Tennessee. The Broncos are resetting on offense under Sean Payton, so their choices in the NFL Draft will be crucial to turning things around.
Kansas City Chiefs
This is one where my subjective analysis of what the Chiefs have done this offseason doesn’t put them in the “loser” category — despite what the numbers say. My model isn’t fond of of Marquise Brown, but I think he’s going to be much more valuable in Andy Reid’s offense with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football. Still, that’s hard to project without seeing the results first.
On the defensive side of the ball, losing Sneed is tough and most of the reason for why their offseason rates so poorly. In terms of the big picture, however, it was the right decision for the Chiefs. Paying Sneed would have been the wrong move long-term to keep their dynasty going, but for this exercise, where we are just looking at the upcoming season, the loss stings. Sneed’s outstanding production will need to be replaced.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys don’t really seem to be “all in” this offseason. Offensive tackle Tyron Smith, running back Tony Pollard and center Tyler Biadasz left in free agency. Smith battled injury issues, so his loss isn’t as big as you’d expect despite his prowess as one of the best tackles in the NFL. Add in linebacker Leighton Vander Esch’s retirement, and there are a lot of holes to fill in Dallas with little coming in through free agency or trades so far.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Trading Allen probably wasn’t in the Chargers’ plans a few months ago, but that’s what happens when you’re in trouble with the cap. He’s a huge loss and one that is probably too big to overcome in one free-agency period. Otherwise, the Chargers did a decent job adding solid players in tight end Will Dissly and running back Gus Edwards while letting linebacker Kenneth Murray walk.
GM Joe Hortiz said #Chargers offered Keenan Allen multiple contract options, including an extension, before trading him to Bears.
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) March 21, 2024
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(Photos of Jerry Jones and Kirk Cousins: Paul Jasienski and Mike Stewart / Associated Press)
2024-03-25 09:27:19
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