These are just numbers, of course, but it is always interesting to have them in mind and analyze them. Especially when they come from Opta, one of the references in statistics and data analysis in the world of football. This Thursday, after the last round of 16 of the Champions League were played and while the eight qualified for the quarters are now known, without knowing who will face whom, the latter updated their favorites ranking for the final victory according to their prediction model.
Among the eight teams, PSG is just in the “first part of the table”: 4th, with an 11.8% chance according to Opta of lifting the big-eared cup. This is almost three times less than the big favorite, Manchester City (32.3%), and just a little less than its first two pursuers: Real Madrid (16.87%) and Arsenal (13.09%).
PSG nevertheless dominates Bayern Munich by a short head (10.75%), and more broadly the bottom three teams: Borussia Dortmund (5.62%), FC Barcelona (5.38%), Atlético from Madrid (4.19%). If Opta does not reveal its criteria in detail, this ranking is based on a predictive tool specific to them and which aggregates several factors such as the team’s European experience, past results, recent results, player statistics, injuries… objective criteria which give a result which is intended to be “serious”.
Which can explain, for example, that Arsenal, who have not reached this stage of the Champions League since 2010 but who have been in resplendent form in recent seasons, and in particular the current one, in the Premier League, can be ranked ahead PSG which certainly plays in the Champions League every year, but does not always shine there and plays in Ligue 1.
Without waiting to see a final victory for PSG, Opta and its tool are in any case optimistic about the Parisian “chances” of going at least to the semi-finals. The tool predicts a 51.08% chance of seeing Luis Enrique’s men in the last four, then a 25.2% chance of playing in the final. The ranking should undoubtedly change marginally after the draw, when everyone will know their opponent. Afterwards, it will only be up to PSG to make the figures lie.
