The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best teams in the league. Can they also become champions? Opinions differ on this – especially because of her youth. However, they currently seem to be eliminating a weak point themselves.
by Ole Frerks
The 2024 Western Conference is pure chaos. Ten teams want to get into the playoffs and wouldn’t be satisfied with just their appearance in the first round; On the contrary, even for one or two teams currently ranked in the play-in, a first round exit would be tantamount to a disaster.
A lot is still unclear at the top, but also in between. Even the tenth-placed Warriors can still quietly dream of a direct playoff spot after a recent good phase. However, the longest winning streak in the conference is currently held by a team that is already tied for first place.
The OKC Thunder are at five in a row and are increasingly positioning themselves to end up with the first seed in the postseason. They already hold the tiebreaker against Denver and the Clippers, the season duel against Minnesota is even (2-2), so other criteria would have to decide here if the balance is the same at the end. However, there are still 25 games per team.
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OKC Thunder: Normal is different
It is already clear that the Thunder are a serious team – and that they meet almost all the criteria for being a real title contender. Although they would be breaking the law: There is hardly any playoff experience in the entire squad. The three best players are 25, 22 and 21 years old, one of whom is a rookie. Before the season, only Spurs had a younger squad by average age.
Normally, teams like this don’t just march through the playoffs after failing in the play-in the year before. But basically not much is normal for the Thunder; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a guard who dominates not from the perimeter, but in and around the zone. Chet Holmgren is the tallest player and best shooter in the starting five.
The team is small (measured by conventional height; the collective arm span is ample), narrow and weak in rebounding, and yet has the fourth-best defense in the league. In addition to the third-best offense (only the Celtics are in the top 3 for offense and defense), in which every player can and should be a playmaker.
OKC is a bit strange – but by many measures it’s the most balanced team in the West. Which has now achieved exactly as many wins as in the previous season (40). According to their net rating, they could reach 61 wins this season, which would set a new franchise record.
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Ate breakfast
The curious thing is that the Thunder are a long way ahead of their own schedule. Before the season, general manager Sam Presti urged caution and said the franchise needed to “finish our breakfast first” in the sense of: Don’t rush things, we’re young and still in data gathering mode. Optimists expected a jump, but not necessarily straight to the top of the entire league.
However, that is exactly the reality. SGA has confirmed its great preseason and is now one of the two top favorites for the MVP award – the Canadian almost never has a bad game, gets his 30 points with somnambulistic security and leads the league in steals. He plays with a confidence that has rubbed off on the entire team.
However, he is by no means alone. OKC has a legitimate Big 3, for the first time since the brief Durant-Westbrook-Harden era. In contrast to the three former MVPs, the fit between Shai, Holmgren and Jalen Williams is even more flawless, and the rest of the very deep squad complements the trio splendidly. There is only one prominent outlier.
Josh Giddey: The Black Sheep?
Before the season, Josh Giddey could still be seen as the fourth core piece. However, the Australian’s development is not in step with the others, on the contrary. Objectively speaking, his third season is a step backwards in almost every relevant category, regardless of his extra curricular problems, which have now been resolved.
On the court, Giddey is currently the flaw in the matrix, as harsh as that sounds. His best skills – passing, on-ball creation – are only used to a limited extent, especially since OKC almost always has better options. Instead, the negative comes to the fore: Giddey’s shooting is stagnating (32.7% three-pointers), which is why he is either not defended at all or is defended by bigs who help out elsewhere.
He can’t punish that with his drive, he’s one of the worst finishers at the ring in the league. Basically, scoring is…difficult. He has the fourth-worst true shooting percentage (52%) among all players in the league who see at least 24 minutes per game.
Giddey massively limits spacing and makes it more difficult for his team to create advantages. He can easily be attacked at the back. The numbers are clear: The Thunder’s net rating is 6 points worse overall when Giddey is on the court. If the other starters play Isaiah Joe instead of Giddey, the net rating is loud Cleaning the Glass an incredible +40.8 (with Giddey: +5).
Josh Giddey has to slowly give way
Of course, Mark Daigneault also realized this. The possible Coach of the Year did not drop Giddey, but game shares and minutes are now being reduced. Giddey sees fewer minutes than in recent years (24.8 per game) and is rarely used at the end of close games. Against the Clippers recently, Joe took his place in the starting five in the second half to get serious. It’s quite possible that this will be normal in the playoffs.
There are options anyway. At the deadline, Presti acquired another player in Gordon Hayward, who still needs to be introduced (2.7 PPG in three games so far), but in theory can represent a better-suited crunch time alternative to Giddey. Joe, Cason Wallace or Kenrich Williams are also available to replace him at any time.
It will be interesting to see how the Thunder deal with this personnel over the rest of the season and beyond – Giddey is still only 21 and is undoubtedly a talented player, but perhaps just not a perfect fit. His rookie contract runs until the summer of 2025, but it is unlikely that it will be extended early next summer.
2022 draft: double main prize
For the moment he is simply overtaken in the pecking order. The Thunder are in the nice and luxurious situation that they don’t necessarily need their top pick from 2021 and were even able to release their highest pick from 2020 (Aleksej Pokusevski) a few days ago without anyone bothering. They just won the main prize in the 2022 draft – twice.
Paolo Banchero may be the first (very controversial) All-Star of this year, but it is quite possible that the two most important Thunder picks of 2022 will be ranked first and second (instead of second and 12th) in a re-draft today for many executives ) would prove.
Holmgren is having a one-year delay in a rookie year that would almost certainly win him the Rookie of the Year award in almost any year (read: without Victor Wembanyama). The big man is already an elite ring protector, despite his slim stature. Up front it’s efficient, smart, a perfect fit for the Daigneault system.
J-Dub: The perfect number two
Williams flies a little under the radar alongside SGA and Chet at times, but is himself headed straight for All-Star honors or even more. The swingman has improved massively compared to his rookie season, hits a sensational 45% of his threes and is increasingly being used as an initiator.
J-Dub is only 22 years old and has almost no weaknesses in his game; He now shows Shai-like drives and finishes very regularly, but also already has one of the better stepback jumpers in the league. He is a number two next to Shai that could hardly have been better imagined, especially since – like Chet – he also makes a big contribution defensively and can be used as a second stopper on the wing alongside Lu Dort.
This Big 3 is at the beginning of its development. She is the main guarantor of why OKC has perhaps the brightest future of any NBA team. Another reason is the 600,000 first-round picks that Presti has amassed in numerous trades, which will allow OKC to cost-effectively add talent to the core that has already been assembled for years to come.
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Ready for sustainable success?
There are no guarantees, of course, but these picks increase the chance for more sustained success than the first Big 3 of the Thunder era once enjoyed.
However, all of this is a thing of the future. OKC needs to be taken seriously at the moment. According to the rules, the Thunder would first have to get a taste of playoff air and be disappointed before they can make big shots, and an early exit is of course possible.
But does anyone want to rely on it? It’s not normal what’s happening here. If any team can defy ancient, sacred rules, it might be this one.
2024-02-27 12:03:00
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