He domingo 18th of February the first takes place big test at the polls since the general elections. 2,700,000 Galicians are called to the polls. Of these, almost half reside abroad, which could be key in the most close elections in recent years. At stake is the Presidency of the Xunta, governed by the PP for 15 years with absolute majorities. The left hopes to put an end to that, especially due to the push of the BNG. The left-wing bloc calls for the mobilization of all Galicians, ensuring that the higher the participation rate, the easier it will be to remove the PP candidate, Alfonso Rueda, from the Presidency.
When the PP decided to bring forward the elections in Galicia, it was not thinking about a scenery tan uncertain like the current one. “Just a few months ago the stage was closed, no one disputed that they were going to see a revalidation of the absolute majority on the part of the popular party and the novelty is precisely that now there is an open scenario,” explains Manuel de la Fuente, political scientist at Harmon.
Why is the absolute majority of the PP at stake?
Las surveys They contemplate that the popular party may lose the Xunta for the first time since 2005, although not as the most plausible option. There are various factors that explain it. One of them: the sociological change that Galicia has been experiencing for several years.
“It is true that the young voter is fundamentally grouped in the BNG. The data more or less tells us that under 45 years of age the PP has many difficulties in gaining support,” says Manuel de la Fuente.
The difficulty worsens among new voters. According to the CIS, 4 out of 10 voters aged 18 to 24 lean towards the bloc, while 2 out of 10 lean towards the PP.
“Over 50 years of age, the candidacy of Ana Ponton It has some difficulties,” says Manuel de la Fuente.
Also be careful vote of the exterior: and 18 percent of the total. “Traditionally it had benefited the PP, but not always,” indicates the political scientist.
Los national leaders they have been dumps with their candidates until the last moment in regional elections mired by turbulent national politics: “In fact in some cases, such as the case of the PP, this has also led to some shooting in the foot. It can have an effect, but it can have a negative effect.”
The amnesty and pardons have ended up splashing the Galician electoral shore, where the socialists, third in the polls, are losing support and “it is possible that the BNG will double its seats.”
A block of transversal discourse in vacuum mode of the left’s vote that can leave the vice president’s party without options in its own land. On the right, the polls do not contemplate the entry of Vox into the Galician Parliament, but be careful with the remaining vote for the PP. And pay attention to the seat that the mayor of Ourense can win because he can be the lifesaver of the popular ones if they stay at the gates of the absolute majority.
And if not, earthquake in Genoa? “I don’t believe that that alone is what will bring Feijóo to the end of the leadership of the PP, far from it,” responds the political scientist.
It may not be a checkmate for Feijóo, but the one who will suffer the most from a defeat in Galicia will, by far, be the PP.
Themes
2024-02-17 16:03:33
#appointment #polls #general #elections
