Caleb William o Justin Fields en Chicago
Fate smiles on the Chicago Bears. It will sound strange, since they have not reached the Playoffs for three years and have not won a postseason game for more than a decade, but they are going to have the first selection of the next rebound draft, since Carolina sent them their first pick of 2024 when they traded up in April to take Bryce Young, but the Panthers’ campaign was a disaster and they finished with the worst record in the league. Chicago is in a position to benefit from that and change the course of not only the franchise, but the NFL, for the expansive waves that his decision will generate.
The Bears must decide whether to take Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman winner from USCor if they decide to change the first selection of the Draft again to shore up a team that finished 7-10 even though Justin Fields He missed a month of the season with a broken finger, but came back to win 4 of his last 6.
There will be a market for both: there are a dozen teams who might think about having a nuevo quarterback the next season (Falcons, Raiders y Broncos are the ones who most point to it, without including Washington y New Englandwho could well take quarterback with the second or third pick, and it would not be the biggest surprise if Buccaneers, Vikings, Seahawks, Steelers y Titans decide to change course). There is also a certain urgency, because The quarterbacks in the 2025 draft (Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck, Shedeur Sanders) are not as well regarded as those who arrive this year.
Will Justin Fields still be with the Chicago Bears? | Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Option 1: Keep Justin Fields and trade the first pick
Chicago received two first round picks (2023 y 2024), second-hand ones (2023 and 2025), in addition to a Pro Bowl receiver (D.J. Moore) for changing with Carolina to take the Bryce Young. Caleb Williams is seen as a better prospect than the now Panthers QB, which could mean a greater loot.
That could help round out a team rated #11 in the league in adjusted DVOA, an efficiency metric that gives greater weight to the performance in recent weeks. That could bring one more receiver to complement Moore in the draft (Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze), shore up the offensive line and the perimeter. With the picks you receive in exchange, you can get creative to finish building the roster.
Fields also has the ability to make plays that very few players have in the NFL.. Other players have expressed their desire for him to stay. He is a better athlete than Caleb Williams, although not so good at passing. ‘Imperfect’ quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen have been polished over the years until they become top players. This cannot be taught:
The All-22 angle of Justin Fields avoiding the sack is somehow even more impressive. ???? pic.twitter.com/8MpoDnCzYs
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 3, 2024
Apply ‘bad because you know, good because you know’, Since the NFL has two teams (2002), 67 quarterbacks have been chosen in the first round and only 29 even made it to the Pro Bowl. As much as a player is valued coming out of the NCAA, it does not mean that he becomes a star.
Retaining Fields and trading the draft pick is the path to contending for the Playoffs as early as next season; A rookie has never reached the Super Bowl in his first year.
Caleb Williams, the favorite to be the #1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft | Reuters
Option 2: Draft Caleb Williams and trade for Justin Fields
The key variable to do without Fields is economic. The QB is entering the fourth year of his contract, prior to which Chicago must decide whether to activate his fifth-year option. The CV is not flattering. 10-28 record as a starter, 60.3% completions (#42 among 47 quarterbacks who started at least 17 games), 37.8% de success rate (The metric for being ‘ahead of the chains is QB45 out of 47, only above Zach Wilson and PJ Walker). Fields has bright moments, but the down-to-down efficiency isn’t there (Just for reference, the top 10 in success rate since 2021: Purdy, Mahomes, Dak, Brady, Garoppolo because of the 49ers, Allen, Tua, Stafford, Goff and Burrow, all more than 10% above Fields).
Right now, you can’t answer affirmatively that Fields is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFLso it’s worth considering everythingespecially because in a couple of years it will cost a lot of money, and there is nothing worse than paying a lot for a QB who is not elite.
On the other hand, you have Caleb Williams, a better passer than Fields, although he has his sins. The main one is to extend the plays in search of large profits. They compare him to Mahomes and he also shares a characteristic with the now Chiefs QB: Their defenses in the NCAA were terrible and they had to stretch their limits to be in the games. Mahomes lost games at Texas Tech despite scoring 34, 30, 46, 52, 35, 53, 55, 38, 59 (the famous one against Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma in which he threw for 734 yards and ran for 85 more), 37 y 44. Among Caleb’s losses at USC are games in which he scored 42, 24 (he was injured in the first half), 45, 32, 42 y 27.
Let’s get back to the topic of ‘damn’ money. Drafting Caleb Williams means you’ll have a pretty cheap QB from 2024-2027. Bryce Young averages less than 10 million (surely it will be a little more, but there’s no way he’d reach 15 kilos), 20 quarterbacks have a more expensive contract at the moment and You can use that extra 20 million to sign free agents or retain key pieces. Fields wouldn’t stay on the team, so you can trade him to one of the many teams that need a QB, perhaps in a trade like Aaron Rodgers, a second round that could improve if some performance goals are met, and so on bring more talent via Draft.
You have a four-year window completely open to really fight for everything, because a rookie quarterback is the biggest advantage you can have and that’s how the contenders have been built since 2011: Carolina with Cam Newton, Kaepernick’s 49ers, Russell Wilson’s Seahawks, Andrew Luck’s Colts, Goff’s Rams, Wentz’s Eagles (even though Nick Foles won the Super Bowl), Lamar Jackson’s Ravens, Mahomes’ Chiefs, Josh Allen’s Bills, Burrow’s Bengals, Jalen Hurts’ Eagles, Purdy’s 49ers.
The Bears have already passed on Mahomes for another QB. It is true that in 2017 no one saw Pat as a second overall pick caliber, but they failed. Now comes the ‘New Mahomes’ and it would be very difficult to digest that you passed on him again. Money makes it even easier, even though there are no certainties; wow, neither were Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck.
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2024-01-12 17:13:38
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