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The first game of the weekend is the Houston Texans taking on the Baltimore Ravens. I’m taking the under (minus) 44 points to be scored in this game.
Why do I prefer the under in this interesting match? First because of the Ravens offense against the Texans defense. Lamar Jackson hasn’t had much success in the postseason during his career. Not only is he 1-3, but the offense has generated an average of 13 points per game.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is a former linebacker. He also served as defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers for a few years, including a season where his defense led the league in both points and yards allowed. He has what it takes to strategize against the Ravens. They won’t stop them, but they can limit the damage.
The Texans’ offense will face the Ravens’ solid defense. The latter led the NFL in points allowed. She also finished sixth in yards allowed per game.
But here’s a more important fact that might go unnoticed: The Ravens had the most sacks this season, while Houston’s offensive line finished 11th.
But that’s not all! Rookie sensation CJ Stroud excels at throwing deep passes. However, Baltimore’s defense finished first in the advanced Defensive Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) statistic when teams attempted to throw the ball in deep zones.
Timing is important when it comes to moving the ball on offense. I fear it could be tougher in the first half for the Ravens because their starters haven’t played in three weeks.
And here is a final argument. As good as Stroud is, I worry about how many reliable targets he sees in front of him. The team lost Tank Dell for the season, and Noah Brown will also miss the game. Nico Collins is a solid weapon, but the depth behind him is concerning.
So, for all of these reasons, I think the best bet regarding the Houston vs. Baltimore matchup is to go with the lesser.
Second choix
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Finally, we have a great classic matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. Patrick Mahomes against Josh Allen in the bitter cold of January. It can’t be better.
You’ve probably heard that Mahomes will be playing his first-ever away playoff game of his career. But some people will make the following argument: Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog. In such a situation, his only loss was against these same Bills last year.
After analyzing this match in depth, I decided to take Buffalo. I could have taken the spread, but I fear a very close victory for the Bills.
Let’s start with the bad news. Kansas City enjoys two extra days off since they played last Saturday, while Buffalo played the Steelers on Monday.
Additionally, the Bills were already weakened on defense. Things got even worse last week with a few more injuries. After losing Matt Milano for the season, they also have three linebackers who are currently questionable: Dodson, Bernard and Spector.
At cornerback, Tre’Davious White has been out for a while, and they also have three players showing signs of questioning: Taron Johnson, Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford.
From what I’ve read, many of them could still play on Sunday, which is more reassuring.
The Chiefs defense is much better at defending against the pass than against the run. This may not necessarily pose a huge problem for the Bills.
They have shown that they can also crush the ball when necessary. Just ask the Cowboys who were crushed for a total of 266 rushing yards in Buffalo. And since Joe Brady became offensive coordinator, Josh Allen runs the ball more often.
Patrick Mahomes doesn’t trust his receivers, outside of Rashee Rice. Even Travis Kelce fumbled the ball surprisingly often. This could prove costly.
In real home games at Highmark Stadium, the Bills are 8-1. I know Mahomes is a true winner, but I believe Buffalo will finally rid themselves of their demons by taking out the Chiefs this weekend.
2024-01-20 04:55:00
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