Analyzing the Impact of Top Draft Picks on NBA Teams: A Look Back and a Look Ahead

The arrival of Victor Wembanyama to the San Antonio Spurs provokes a return to the recent past to analyze how the first season of the teams that obtained the first place in the Draft in the lottery has worked. While we find teams that have risen to fight for the NBA, others obtained the same, or even fewer, victories than the previous year. In the last decade, the Cleveland Cavaliers (2013-2014) and Philadelphia 76ers (2016-2017) have consecutively obtained the first player pick.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2013-2014)

The Ohio franchise was in the midst of a rebuilding process after the departure of LeBron James in the summer of 2010. The following summer, in 2011, they would get pick 1 where they would choose point guard Kyrie Irving, who until LeBron’s arrival to win the ring would become the big star of the team. That season they would finish with a record of 19-63, obtaining the fourth place in the Draft lottery, selecting Dion Waiters. Key player in the transfer of JR Smith and Iman Shumpert. The 2011-2012 season would be somewhat better with 21 victories, and obtaining the first place in the draft.

They would choose Anthony Bennet, one of the worst number 1s in NBA history. In his first season he would play 52 games, none as a starter, contributing 4.2 points and 3.0 rebounds. He would be traded a year later to Minnesota in exchange for Kevin Love. The balance of victories would rise to 33, insufficient to enter the playoffs, entering the lottery. Once again, the luck of the lottery smiled on Cleveland. This would lead to the Cavs picking first overall again the following year. Andrew Wiggins, current Warriors player, would be the one chosen to end up being part of the transfer of Kevin Love. The impact of this is difficult to measure, since he was traded before the season began. And those Cavaliers would form the Big Three with LeBron, Irving and Love, reaching 53 victories.

Minnesota Timberwolves (2015)

The other part of the transfer of Kevin Love, in exchange for Bennet and Wiggins, would close that first season with a record of 16-66. Upon obtaining number one in the draw, they decided to choose Karl Anthony Towns. When choosing an interior and after demonstrating that Anthony Bennet was not a player for the NBA, they decided to cut him before the season, avoiding the historic circumstance of bringing together the last three number ones in the draft on the same team. The Dominican player would be the rookie of the year and together with Andrew Wiggins would lead the Wolves to 29 victories, almost double the previous season. He currently continues on the roster with another number one, Anthony Edwards. At the moment, the Minnesota franchise has been unable to get past the first round of the playoffs since the Garnett era (2004).

Philadelphia 76ers (2016-2017)

The example of modern NBA tanking, the famous “The Process”. The team had had very negative records for several years (19-63 in 2014 and 18-64 in 2015) without having luck both with the chosen players, Michael Carter Williams and Jahill Okafor, and with the chosen position. Despite being one of the worst teams, they did not obtain number 1 in the lottery draw.

This trend would change in the 2016 Draft when they obtained Ben Simmons as number 1, although an injury prevented him from playing a single minute of that season. The famous 10-72 season led the team to be able to choose the Australian player. Without him, the team raised the victories to 28. Again, the luck of choosing number 1 and, as in the case of Minnesota, bringing together the last two first choices on the same team. The chosen one, point guard Markelle Fultz, who together with a recovered Ben Simmons, who would end up winning the rookie of the year, would reach 52 victories, falling in the conference semifinals.

Phoenix Suns (2018)

The case of the Suns is one of those teams that started to have fewer wins than the previous year. The season in which they drafted Ayton, passing on Trae Young and Luka Doncic, they had 19 wins and 63 losses, while the previous year they had 21 wins and 61 losses. The player would be part of the team that would reach the 2021 Finals, losing to the Bucks, but after several seasons of doubts he has been transferred to Portland.

New Orleans Pelicans (2019)

LeBron involved again, the arrival of Anthony Davis to the Lakers meant a reconstruction in New Orleans, obtaining 33 wins and 49 losses, outside of the playoffs. By choosing Zion, they would have 3 fewer wins (fewer games were played that season due to the Covid bubble). Currently, they are still hoping that the injuries will allow Zion to compete at their level.

Minnesota Timberwolves (2020)

Once again Minnesota obtaining number 1, after a season where Towns missed many games and they only managed to reach 19 victories. The arrival of Edwards caused the franchise to go up only 4 games. It would not be until the following season when injuries allowed the two stars to join together and reach the playoffs, falling in the first round.

Detroit Pistons (2021)

The Pistons would get Cade Cunningham after several years without a defined direction, making the playoffs twice in 10 seasons. Before the arrival of the promising point guard, the franchise managed to win 20 games, while with Cade they would achieve it in 23 games. Although with large percentages it would not take the ROY. Last season, injured, he has not been able to continue growing and in the present, the Michigan franchise is one of the worst in the entire NBA.

Orlando Magic (2022)

The last precedent before this season is from Orlando with Paolo Banchero. Vucevic’s departure several seasons ago caused a reconstruction that is looking better and better. The arrival of the American international, although with an Italian passport, was one of the reasons for increasing the number of games won by the franchise from 20 to 33. This season with the arrival of a new exterior, the definitive explosion of Banchero and the recent world champion, Franz Wagner, could get back into the fight for the playoffs.

San Antonio Spurs (2023)

This 2023 season, the San Antonio Spurs were called in charge of raising the winning percentage. In the history of the franchise there are two good precedents, David Robinson in ’87 and Duncan in ’97. On both occasions, the Texan team would finish with a balance of 56-26, +35 victories in Robinson’s year and +34 at the Duncan. The landing of the Frenchman this season does not seem to be going to cause the same result: the Spurs had 22 wins last season and, in the middle of this season, they only have 7, being last in the Western Conference… and looking very good. another wasted year and the best rookie award for Wemby not as easy as initially expected. We will see.

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2024-01-20 16:50:14
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