The Christmas holidays left us under the tree one of the strangest weeks of the 2023 season of the National Football League.
Unexpected results have already become a constant, but the sixteenth Sunday of the campaign revealed situations that were difficult to understand.
Doomed by many due to their ineffective offense, the Pittsburgh Steelers returned to the race for postseason spots by beating the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Seattle Seahawks rallied in the final seconds to occupy the seventh playoff spot in the NFC.
Nobody seems to want to win the AFC South. Every team in this division lost and all but the Tennessee Titans (5-7) are 8-7.
The Kansas City Chiefs look like a lost team and not the current league champions. They gave up two touchdowns from the Raiders defense in seven seconds. Two actions that reflect the sloppy play that Patrick Mahomes’ attack currently has. The Raiders didn’t even have 210 yards of offense, but they took the game to exact a little revenge for the lack of respect the Chiefs showed last year.
The Raiders did not complete a single pass after the first quarter, making them the first team in 23 years to win a game by completing exactly zero passes over the final three quarters.
One thing you should know is that the 24 teams still in the running for Super Bowl LVIII are tied for the most in the last 20 years with two weeks left in the regular season. That means only eight teams have officially heard Game Over: Jets, Patriots, Titans, Chargers, Commanders, Giants, Panthers and Cardinals.
While most eyes are focused on what’s at the top of the pack, deep down in the league there is also a notable fight for the top pick in the upcoming draft.
According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Bears (via the Panthers) have a 95 percent chance of earning the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Who else could challenge Chicago? The Cardinals have a 4.4 percent chance, while the rest of the NFL has a 0.1 percent chance.
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The 2023 season has been characterized by the large number of injured quarterbacks, however the substitutes have not done badly. If you don’t ask the Browns, they have used four different quarterbacks and have 10 wins. In total, NFL backups have recorded 52 wins, the most through the first 16 weeks of a season since 1999, when 54 quarterbacks did so.
There have only been four seasons (excluding 1987 with replacement players) that featured more than 52 quarterbacks winning starts. There were 53 in 2022, 2010 and 1998, and a record 56 in 1999.
To this point in the season, the AFC has 10 organizations with a winning record and the NFC has seven.
In fact, seven of the 16 AFC teams have already improved their win total compared to last season. In 18 of the previous 20 seasons, at least one team won its division the year after finishing last or tied for last.
Week 17 features eight matchups between teams in contention for Super Bowl LVIII and five games between teams from the same division.
This week there will only be four matchups between teams with a winning record, but that doesn’t mean we are excluded from surprises.
Chill the champagne, because some teams will have to celebrate, beyond the arrival of the New Year.
Game of the week
Dolphins en Ravens (-3.5):
It is incredible that the National Football League decided to leave this game in the first window on Sunday. The confrontation between the two organizations with the most victories this campaign (Miami 11 and Baltimore 12), deserved prime time.
After securing a postseason berth by defeating the Dallas Cowboys in the last second, the Miami Dolphins head to Baltimore for a more than complicated visit. The Ravens return home after sending a message of authority by crushing the San Francisco 49ers at home, favorites for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, according to betting houses.
The Ravens can clinch first place in the AFC.
The Ravens defense intercepted the 49ers five times, four of them on Bruck Purdy last Monday Night Football.
The Ravens are on pace to be the first team since the 1970 merger to lead the NFL in scoring defense, sacks and takeovers in the same season.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have led the NFL in both points and yards per game – something they have accomplished so far this season – on only two previous occasions. And in each of those seasons they reached the Super Bowl: 1972 and 1984.
The Dolphins have an extra day of rest after defeating the Boys on Christmas Eve. Raheem Mostert scored his league-leading 21st touchdown. Tyreek Hill had nine receptions for 99 yards. Jaylen Waddle suffered an ankle injury and he likely won’t be in Baltimore.
However, the Ravens have had problems at home. They have lost two games, but above all they have not looked good and now they are against the change in narrative that the Dolphins achieved by beating a team with a winning record for the first time in the campaign.
The afternoon could serve as a confirmation of Lamar Jackson heading for the MVP award.
While these teams could meet in a potential conference final, for now the Ravens will prevail. Miami does not have its receivers at 100 percent and that will weigh on them in an attack characterized by its verticality and speed. Dolphins 21-24 Ravens
Sure Pick
49ers (-13.5) en Commanders:
The Ravens stole Christmas from 49ers fans who watched their team collapse at home.
What was billed as a potential Super Bowl showdown turned into a massacre in the bay. Brock Purdy was intercepted four times, something that had not happened since 2011 to any quarterback who led the passer rating prior to the matchup. On that occasion it was Tom Brady against the Bills.
Washington nearly pulled off a historic comeback against the Jets, but ultimately fell to their sixth straight loss.
Jacoby Brissett will take charge of the Commanders’ offense.
For San Francisco there is no better card to leave behind the disastrous defeat of a week ago than to face a team immersed in disasters and with a new quarterback. 49ers 35-14 Commanders
Upset
Raiders en Colts (-3):
The Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns in seven seconds against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. Las Vegas achieved a victory that strengthened the final part of the campaign. Antonio Pierce is doing everything to get the management to remove his interim term and leave him as the head coach of the Raiders for next season. Pierce has led the team to four wins and kept them in contention for the AFC West title after Josh McDaniels was fired on Halloween. Although the visit to Indianapolis is difficult, he can get the surprise victory, like eight days ago when they flew to Arrowhead to win. Raiders 17-14 Colts
Two Minute Drill
Jets en Browns (-7):
Amari Cooper is coming off the best performance for any receiver in Browns history by receiving 265 yards against the Texans. The Browns are the first 10-win organization to use four different quarterbacks with at least one win each. They are becoming the team of destiny and the Jets will not be the stone that derails Cleveland’s train. Jets 14-21 Browns
Lions and Cowboys (-6):
Although the Lions remain in the race for first place in the NFC seeding, the hangover from having won the franchise’s first division title since 1993 will be so hard that they will not even know what happened during their visit to Dallas , where the Cowboys will return to winning ways after losing their two games on the road. The Boys go 15 games without losing at AT&T Stadium Dallas seeks to avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2020. Lions 20-35 Cowboys
Patriots at Bills (-12):
The Patriots ended the Broncos’ postseason hopes last week, they won’t do the same with the Bills riding a three-game winning streak and heading home. Josh Allen has thrown a touchdown pass in 23 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Allen also has 51 career rushing touchdowns. Patriots 13-24 Bills
Falcons en Bears (-3):
Justin Fields began to play well after multiple rumors indicate that the Bears will take Caleb Williams (USC) with the first pick in the next draft. Falcons 17-23 Bears
Rams (-6) en Giants:
Tommy DeVito’s magic is over. The Italian-American player was benched and his place will be taken by Tyrod Taylor. The Rams are one of the best teams playing at this point in the season, fueled by rookie Puka Nacua. Rams 28-14 Giants
Cardinals en Eagles (-10.5):
In Las Vegas the casinos are waiting for a massacre, and that will happen. Cardinals 17-30 Eagles
Saints en Buccaneers (-3):
The math is simple for the Buccaneers: win and clinch the NFC South, and get that coveted home playoff game. Saints 20-24 Bucs
Panthers en Jaguars (-7):
The Jaguars are in free fall, but the home game against the Panthers will serve as a parachute. Panthers 14-21 Jaguars
Titans a Texans (-3.5):
The Texans are optimistic about the return of CJ Stroud (concussion) in Week 17. If the rookie takes the balls under center, Houston’s chances of continuing to fight for the postseason increase exponentially. Titans 20-25 Texans
Steelers en Seahawks (-3.5):
Mason Rudolph assumed the starting role and had a brilliant performance against the Steelers. He will repeat behind center if Kenny Pickett fails to recover. The Seahawks currently hold the last remaining wild card spot in the NFC. Seattle will benefit from the electric home environment. Steelers 20-21 Seahawks
Chargers en Broncos (-5.5):
The Broncos decided they will not use Russell Wilson in the final two games in a financial decision. Karma will hit them back to Denver. Chargers 21-14 Broncos
Bengals en Chiefs (-7):
The Chiefs, who started the season with a 6-1 record, now have six losses, the most since 2018 when Patrick Mahomes became the starter. One more victory for the Chiefs and they will clinch their eighth consecutive division title, breaking a tie with the Los Angeles Rams (1972-78) for the second-longest streak. This week the Chiefs will line up for victory. Bengals 17-28 Chiefs
Packers en Vikings (-2):
Both teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Packers 18-14 Vikings
2023-12-27 21:48:11
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