The 49ers’ victory over the Eagles shook up the MVP market with Brock Purdy moving into the favorite role for the first time all season. Here are how various awards markets stand entering Week 14.
MVP
Favorite: Brock Purdy (+300)
Last week’s favorite: Jalen Hurts (+150)
Jalen Hurts had been the outright favorite each of the previous two weeks, the first time anyone has been alone on top of the MVP market in two straight weeks since September. But after his head-to-head win last week, Brock Purdy is now the favorite. Purdy leads the NFL in Total QBR, while ESPN Analytics projects the 49ers as the favorites to get the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
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Dak Prescott’s odds continue to fly up the board, as he leapfrogged Hurts. Prescott is +325 now but he faces the Eagles in a showcase game this week with the highest total of the week. A win could vault Prescott into the favorite role and severely damage Hurts’ case.
One mover this week was Tyreek Hill, who is now the seventh favorite at 14-1, his shortest odds all season. He is right behind Tua Tagovailoa at +900. ESPN Analytics favors the Dolphins to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Offensive Player of the Year
After Hill and McCaffrey both sat around even money for weeks, there is finally a gap between the two with Hill sitting as the -200 favorite. Hill is 484 receiving yards shy of Calvin Johnson’s single-season record, and he also has 12 touchdowns. With Hill facing a Titans defense that ranks in the bottom half in the NFL in most pass defense categories, Hill has a chance to grow his lead before a tougher stretch in his final four games.
Defensive Player of the Year
Parsons and Garrett continue to trade the role of favorite for this award. Parsons did not have a sack, but the Browns’ loss hurts their playoff chances, and team success historically plays a role in this market. 15 of the last 16 winners made the playoffs. T.J. Watt remains third at +325, and his Steelers also lost last week.
This week, Parsons has a high-profile matchup against the Eagles, while Garrett and Watt both face backup quarterbacks, so Week 14 should continue to shape this market.
Coach of the Year
Campbell has been favored almost all season in this market, but the gap continues to narrow. DeMeco Ryans is down to +210. Ryans and Shane Steichen both had their playoff and division chances improve following the Jaguars’ upset loss and Trevor Lawrence’s injury. Ryans and the Texans face the lowly Jets, so his odds could shorten even more.
The other big mover was Matt LaFleur, who is now 11-1 after he was 150-1 three weeks ago. The Packers’ playoff chances are up to 67% according to ESPN Analytics, as they are projected favorites in every remaining game.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-10000)
Last week’s favorite: Stroud (-10000)
At this point, the only question is how long this market remains up. Stroud is a virtual lock.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: Jalen Carter (-200)
Last week’s favorite: Carter (-250)
Carter remains the odds-on favorite, but another contender has finally emerged. Will Anderson had two sacks and is now tied with Devon Witherspoon for second in the odds at +350. Anderson is tied for eighth in the NFL in pressures, but it didn’t translate into sacks until this week.
Anderson now has one more sack than Jalen Carter. Carter plays Sunday night against the Cowboys, so he will be under the spotlight. However, Anderson faces a Jets offense that has allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL this season. He is more likely to have a big statistical game, and if he does, this market could be even closer next week.
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2023-12-06 16:47:00
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