I enter the postseason four games under .500 for the season. I was on the plus side for most of the year, but had a rough last month of the season. I feel like I’m due to bounce back and finish strong. Here are my guesses for the New Year’s Six bowls.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (Arlington, Texas): No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State (-1); 8 p.m. Friday (ESPN)
The Buckeyes are breaking in new QB Devin Brown. Ryan Day is excited about him, Ohio State still has plenty of weapons and it should be good enough on defense to slow what has been a very explosive Tigers attack. Jim Knowles’ defense should hold up well enough against Mizzou star RB Cody Schrader (124 rushing yards per game) to avoid getting shredded. Ohio State is tied for No. 2 in the nation in fewest runs of 30-yards plus with just one.
Ohio State 27, Mizzou 23
The pick: Ohio State -1
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Atlanta): No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Penn State (-4); noon Saturday (ESPN)
The Nittany Lions will miss their most explosive defender in Chop Robinson, who has opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. The Rebels defense was gashed by Georgia and LSU but held up pretty well the rest of the way. Is Penn State’s offense, which was so underwhelming for most of the season, ready or capable of getting after Ole Miss? The hunch here is that Lane Kiffin’s offense will do enough to carry over all the program’s transfer portal momentum to a bowl win over a top-10 opponent.
Ole Miss 24, Penn State 20
The pick: Ole Miss +4
Capital One Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Fla.): No. 6 Georgia (-17) vs. No. 5 Florida State; 4 p.m. Sat. (ESPN)
Don’t judge the Noles’ performance here on whether they belonged in the Playoff. That team went 13-0 after scheduling two good SEC programs in nonconference play. This Florida State team has seen almost all of its stars opt out after the CFP snub. It will miss RB Trey Benson, receivers Jaheim Bell, Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, standout D-linemen Jared Verse and Fabien Lovett, as well as back up QB Tate Rodemaker. Expect Mike Norvell’s guys to battle for the first half before getting overwhelmed by an ornery Dawgs team. Kirby Smart is 8-2 in bowl games and has won six in a row.
Georgia 35, FSU 6
The pick: Georgia -17
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Ariz.): No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon (-17.5); 1 p.m. Monday (ESPN)
Jamey Chadwell has a good, creative offense, but the undefeated Flames haven’t faced anywhere near the talent they’re going to see against the Ducks. Liberty played New Mexico State twice and gave up 341 rushing yards total and allowed 191 to Bowling Green. Those offensive lines aren’t close to as physical or as sharp as Oregon’s. The Ducks also have too many playmakers for this one not to get out of hand. Plus, Dan Lanning’s team has shown it has no problems squashing lesser talented teams.
Oregon 45, Liberty 17
The pick: Oregon -17.5
CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential (Pasadena, Calif.): No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan (-1.5); 5 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Most of the Big Ten coaches are skeptical of the Wolverines, but they’re not giving Michigan enough credit. This is a seasoned, resilient and talented group. These players have been through a lot this season, and I wouldn’t bet against them in a close, physical game. They are built for this. They don’t get enough credit for how deep and talented they are on the defensive line. Those guys are good enough to hold up against a Bama attack that doesn’t have the kind of backs and receivers of previous Tide teams. Yes, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s wheels will cause some problems, but the Wolverines also have underrated weapons on offense, especially speedy tight end Colston Loveland, and their backs are talented and tough. QB J.J. McCarthy also has had a month to continue to recover from a leg injury in early November. He’s a dynamic enough athlete to help Michigan move the chains. Keep in mind this is only the second time in the past dozen years in which Alabama hasn’t ranked in the top four in run defense in the SEC, and the other time was 2019 when the Tide didn’t make the CFP.
Michigan 24, Alabama 20
The pick: Michigan -1.5
GO DEEPER
SEC coaches on Bama vs. Michigan: Can the Wolverines score on the Tide D?
CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl (New Orleans): No. 3 Texas (-4) vs. No. 2 Washington; 8:45 p.m. Monday (ESPN)
I’m tempted to pick Texas, especially after talking to coaches who have faced both of these teams who say the Longhorns’ ferocious defensive tackles will dominate the trenches, taking away the run game and not allowing Michael Penix Jr. enough time to work downfield to Washington’s elite receivers. But Kalen DeBoer’s guys are tested and have such belief in each other that they will outlast Texas. This group has played in so many tight games and always found ways to win. Over the past two years, Washington is 10-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and 9-0 vs. teams in the Top 25. The receivers are the Huskies’ strength, and they match up well against Texas’ secondary, the Horns’ biggest question mark. But UT also has a dangerous crew of receivers, and the secondary also is where the Huskies are most vulnerable, so I’m expecting a wild back-and-forth game, and I’ll go with the most experienced QB and more veteran team.
Washington 44, Texas 42
The pick: Washington +4
GO DEEPER
Big 12 coaches on Texas vs. Washington: ‘The best Texas team’ in years
(Photo of Washington receiver Rome Odunze: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
2023-12-27 17:24:08
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