Christmas is coming early for the public betting masses, thanks to NFL favorites going on a binge the past two weekends.
It started in Week 12, with favorites finishing 12-4 against the spread (ATS). It continued in the NFL Week 13 odds market, particularly on Sunday, when favorites were 9-1 straight up (SU) and 8-2 ATS heading into the Sunday night game.
Bettors piled up so much money by that point that not even a Green Bay Packers outright upset of the Kansas City Chiefs could get most bookmakers back in the black for NFL Week 13.
Oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country help rehash the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Early Window Pain
In Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET games, favorites went 6-1 SU and ATS. And the only favorite that fell was the Pittsburgh Steelerswhich didn’t draw much action because most bettors have no faith in the smoke-and-mirrors outfit. Pittsburgh, laying 6 points at home against Arizonagot beat outright 24-10.
The most public of teams, Miami and Detroitboth won to keep everybody’s moneyline parlays healthy. And both covered — the Dolphins easily as 8.5-point road faves in a 45-15 bashing of Washington and the Lions narrowly in a 33-28 road win as 4.5-point favorites vs. New Orleans.
“Dolphins by a million, so that was no good,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “Lions-Saints was a one-score game that didn’t get there for us. Falcons–Jets was a one-score game that didn’t get there. We needed the Broncosanother one-score game that didn’t get there.”
Atlantaa 1.5-point road favorite, beat the New York Jets 13-8. Houstona 3-point home fave, held off Denver 22-17.
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Compound Interest
Then came the FOX Game of the Week in the 4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. ET mix of games. Philadelphia hosted San Francisco in a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, which the Eagles won easily 31-7. In that game, Philly benefited from the early exit of 49ers QB Brock Purdy due to an elbow injury.
This time around, Purdy was healthy all the way through. After falling behind 6-0 in the first quarter, the Niners put up 14 points in each of the second, third and fourth quarters while drop-kicking the Eagles 42-19. Oh, and of course, San Fran was favored by 3 points and had plenty of not only public support but sharp bettors backing them at lower numbers early last week.
Add in the semi-resurgent Los Angeles Rams claiming a 35-19 win over Cleveland as 3.5-point home favorites, and the moneyline parlay/straight-bet parlay/teaser liability running to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night was monumental.
Prior to the Chiefs-Packers tilt, BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton easily had the Oddsmaker Quote of the Week:
“We need the Packers really bad. We are taking a dull axe to the back of our head today.”
BetMGM and myriad other sportsbooks didn’t just need Green Bay to cover as a 6-point ‘dog. It needed the Packers to win outright — and even that wasn’t going to come close to evening out the balance sheet.
“There’s no salvaging the day. Packers and Under would help, though,” Andrews said.
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Fail to the Chiefs
Most bettors — particularly the public/casual/recreational types — would love to have the final piece of their parlay puzzle riding on the arm of Patrick Mahomes. But Mahomes had just one touchdown pass against Green Bay, and he threw a very costly fourth-quarter interception.
The Packers never trailed the Chiefs and came away with a 27-19 upset (by the way, the Over hit, as the total closed at 44). So all that moneyline parlay liability running to K.C. was squashed. But as Shelton noted, it was still a second-straight strong Sunday for the NFL betting public.
“The Packers’ win prevented a historically bad Sunday, making it just a bad Sunday. A Chiefs win and cover would have been the death blow. We live to fight another day,” Shelton said.
Added The SuperBook’s Murray: “The damage was done, and we still had a tough day. But the Packers winning prevented it from being really awful.”
Back to School
The college football Week 14 odds market — or the conference championship weekend odds market, if you prefer — was generally better than the NFL for bookmakers.
Oregon was a much-hyped 9.5-point favorite in the Pac-12 title game against Washington on Friday night, here in Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium. The Huskies built a 20-3 lead by late in the second quarter, but before the third quarter was over, Washington trailed 24-20.
However, the Huskies scored two fourth-quarter TDs and hung on for a 34-31 win.
“The Oregon-Washington game was a terrific result for us. We had Oregon money coming in everywhere — parlays, teasers, moneyline,” Andrews said of action at the South Point. “Alabama was good for us, Florida State was really good and Michigan was really good.”
The Crimson Tide topped No. 1 Georgia 27-24 in the SEC Championship Game, in which Alabama was a 5.5-point underdog.
The Seminoles opened as 5.5-point favorites against Louisville. But with Florida State’s QB corps wracked by injuries, by the time kickoff arrived Saturday night, the Cardinals were 1-point favorites. Florida State was able to grind out a 16-6 victory to win the ACC title and move to 13-0 SU. But that wasn’t enough to get into the College Football Playoff, as you probably all know by now.
Michigan, a 21.5-point favorite, dispatched Iowa 26-0 in the Big Ten final.
BetMGM customers did all right for the college football betting weekend. Before the conference championship games kicked off, lead national trader Seamus Magee said the book needed a Louisville win over Florida State, and for Iowa to cover against Michigan.
More so, though, Magee wanted to see BetMGM get out of a pickle with Alabama. A Crimson Tide outright win was good for the book in the small picture of just the SEC Championship Game. But what Magee would’ve preferred is for Georgia to win and Alabama to cover the spread, to end the Tide’s season.
“Alabama is a huge liability to win the national championship,” Magee said.
Specifically, back in August, a BetMGM customer made a $205,500 bet on Alabama +600 to win the national title. If the Crimson Tide get it done, that represents a profit of $1.233 million, for a $1,438,500 total payout.
No. 4 Alabama is a 1.5-point underdog to No. 1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl, the first of the two CFP semifinals to be played on New Year’s Day. In the other semi, No. 3 Texas is a 4.5-point favorite against No. 2 Washington.
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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There was plenty of Monopoly money flying around on the NFL this week, once again. The biggest reported bets landed at BetMGM. Ben Fawkes tweeted out this massive play:
And another BetMGM customer wagered $300,000 on 49ers -3 (-105) vs. the Eagles. As noted above, San Francisco dominated from the second quarter on, rumbling to a 42-19 road victory. So there was no real sweat for that bettor, who profited $285,714, for a $585,714 total payout.
Caesars Sports had a host of high-roller wagers, including:
$210,000 Texans -3 (-105). Bettor profits $200,000, for a $410,000 total payout.$110,000 Eagles +3. Loss.$110,000 Steelers -5.5. Loss.$55,000 Packers +6 (-131). Bettor profits $41,985, for a $96,985 total payout.
But we’re fans of the small bets, too, particularly those that turn a tremendous return on investment. Such was the case for a DraftKings customer who got involved in player props on the Chiefs-Packers Sunday night game.
The bettor put five bucks on Packers rookie tight end Ben Sims being the player to score the first touchdown. Sims was a +6000 (60/1) long shot, but midway through the first quarter, he snagged his first career TD on a 1-yard pass from Jordan Love to put Green bay up 7-0.
And the bettor cashed out for $300. That, my friends, is some serious ROI.
Here’s hoping we can all knock out one or two wagers like that one. Enjoy the Bengals–Jaguars on Monday night.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
2023-12-04 17:09:23
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