Another week. Another heavyweight showdown. The 2022 NFC Championship Game rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles highlights Week 13, but there are plenty of other games to follow this weekend considering the playoff implications across the league.
The Athletic’s Mike Sando, Jeff Howe and Kalyn Kahler let you know what’s on their minds in our latest roundtable previewing the weekend slate.
The week’s biggest game is 49ers at Eagles. How have these teams changed since last year’s NFC Championship Game meeting?
Shirt: The Eagles aren’t as good on defense, and the 49ers should have their starting quarterback for the full game. Those things should give this game a different feel. Philly has a new offensive coordinator. Both teams have new defensive coordinators. Both teams are playing more man coverage, which could be difficult for the 49ers against the Eagles’ weapons. These are still the two best teams in the NFC, so that part is the same.
Howe: The biggest change, assuming we’re all on board with the idea of this game being more competitive, is Brock Purdy’s elbow should hold up for longer than six plays. But more to the question, both teams are better prepared to handle adversity. As great as Purdy’s rookie season had gone, he was relatively untested due to a series of one-sided victories. Now, he’s gone through a three-game losing streak, dealt with injuries around the offense and heard the criticism that comes with being a higher-profile quarterback. Similarly, the Eagles have shown their toughness on a weekly basis through a number of close games against quality opponents. They’re getting everyone’s best shot and still have the NFL’s best record. These teams were very good last season, and they’re even better equipped for the stage now.
Kahler: The Eagles are having some growing pains on offense this season with Brian Johnson at offensive coordinator. Acquiring veteran running back Deandre Swift in the offseason has proven to be an upgrade from Miles Sanders, because he’s been more involved in the passing game. The tush push is bigger and more beautiful and more hated than ever before. As Howe mentioned, Purdy is now battle-tested, and this time around, the Niners are healthier. This is the game of the week because last season when Purdy left the game with an elbow injury, we were robbed of experiencing the true matchup.
There is always a team no one wants to face in the playoffs. Which team fits that description best, were it to reach the postseason: Rams, Packers, Texans or Broncos?
Shirt: Houston is that team right now and Denver has collected a couple of impressive victories, but I’m watching to see if the Packers develop into that team by season’s end. We have seen flashes lately. Jordan Love is talented, just getting started and playing better in recent weeks. His upside and the Packers’ younger talent in general make Green Bay intriguing. The Rams are intriguing, but I’m not sure how well Matthew Stafford is going to hold up.
Howe: C.J. Stroud is playing at the highest level among those four quarterbacks, and the Texans have a really cool it-factor in their favor. They can play the underdog card better than anyone in this group, and there’s something to be said for a young team that simply doesn’t know any better. If they play fearless and get Stroud’s best game, the Texans will be a tough out.
Kahler: I’ll go Broncos here because any team on a five-game win streak is scary. Sando covered this angle well this week and showed how Sean Payton has turned Russell Wilson into a game manager-type quarterback, but in the best sense of that word. He’s throwing for the lowest number of air yards per attempt in his career, but it’s working, because he’s getting the ball out quickly. Last week, the Broncos benefited from some opponent flukes that they won’t be able to rely on every week, but I think the defense is going to continue to improve and they’ve shown they are capable of beating anyone.
Shirt: If the Panthers go with an outside candidate, I’d love to see Eric Bieniemy get the job, partly because he’s strong enough from a personality standpoint to reject owner David Tepper’s meddling. Bieniemy seems to have done well with Washington’s offense. He steps on toes, which is his style, but in this case, with this owner, the job might require that type of head coach. If the Panthers go with an internal hire, Jim Caldwell would be strong enough to stay the course despite ownership pressure.
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Howe: I’d want an offensive-minded head coach to build and sustain stability for Bryce Young. The biggest names there will be Ben Johnson, Frank Smith, Kellen Moore and Bobby Slowik, and Johnson seems to be getting to the point where he can pick his spot. The problem for the Panthers, though, is Johnson may not want anything to do with David Tepper and his quick-hook problem. Start with Johnson. But if I’m Tepper, I’d pay extremely close attention to Jim Caldwell’s effect on the room over the final six games. Caldwell may have one more coaching tenure in him. And I’m curious — skeptical, but curious — if Tepper learned a lesson from a season ago when Steve Wilks positioned himself for the job before getting passed over.
Kahler: Not Greg Olsen. No offense to Greg, but the latest example of a former player-turned-broadcaster-turned-first-time NFL coach was an absolute circus. I agree that an offensive-minded head coach is what is needed here. I think Bryce Young is going to be somewhat scarred from this disastrous rookie season and will need someone like Mike McDaniel was to Tua, or Pete Carroll to Geno Smith — a head coach who can support him in mental and emotional development as much as his technical development. When Young talks, you can hear the toll that this season has had on him. After the loss at Chicago on Thursday night, he just repeated the same phrase over and over, like he was glitching. “I’ve got to be better.” Ben Johnson would be my first choice if he is interested in the role because he’s had a similar effect on Jared Goff in Detroit, rehabilitating him from a bad experience with Sean McVay. I also think Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan would be a good choice.
Shirt: Indy can survive without Taylor for a few weeks. Coach Shane Steichen has done a good job using his personnel. Zack Moss has been a quality back. The Colts have a better conference record than those other AFC teams on the playoff fringe. Indy’s playoff chances could hinge on how badly Cleveland fades with its quarterback situation and injuries.
Howe: Zack Moss was one of the league’s leading rushers before Taylor commanded a greater workload, so I think their ground game will be OK. I wouldn’t necessarily consider the Colts a favorite to get into the playoffs because there’s a big-time logjam in the middle of the AFC, and I think the Steelers, Browns, Texans, Bills and maybe even Chargers are better teams. But the Colts have a winnable schedule, including a chance to prove me wrong with games against the Steelers and Texans, so it’s right there for them.
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Kahler: Indianapolis has a 42 percent chance to make the playoffs right now, per the New York Times playoff simulator. The Colts beat Tennessee the first time around this season with a rushing attack led by Zack Moss, whose 165 yards upstaged both Derrick Henry and Taylor, who was in his first game back since his holdout. I don’t think the Colts will make it through the crowded AFC, and a Texans division team that I think is better.
The NFC South is a mess, but someone has to win it. Who is trending in that direction?
Shirt: It’s the Falcons because they have a victory over New Orleans and there is no way to say anything is trending positively for Tampa Bay right now. I went into the season giving New Orleans the edge based on the Saints having a known mid-tier quarterback in Derek Carr, while the rest of the division was in flux at the position. I don’t feel Carr is providing an edge now. Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson appears poised for a strong finish. I’ll bet on him.
Howe: This is becoming the annual “who gets to lose to the Cowboys in the wild-card round” trophy. I picked the Falcons before the season, so I’ll stick with them. If they can go 3-3 down the stretch, including a win against the Saints in the finale, they should take the division with an 8-9 record.
Kahler: Since Howe picked Atlanta, I’ll make the case for Tampa Bay because it still has four division games left. Mayfield was playing well to start the season, and he’s been pissed off lately as they’ve dropped six of their last seven games. Good things have happened when Baker is angry, and I think he’s capable of leading a late-season push, even though they have just a nine percent chance to make win the division, per The New York Times’ playoff simulator. They have yet to play the Panthers, so that should be two wins. But they’ll also need to beat the Saints again and the Falcons, who they lost to the first time around by just a field goal. If they can dominate their lowly division, they’ll have a 66 percent chance to make the postseason.
(Photos of Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurst and Frank Reich: Steph Chambers, Perry Knotts and Silas Walker / Getty Images)
2023-12-02 12:11:05
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