Jerusalem Nine weeks have passed since Israel began bombing the Gaza Strip and six since it sent ground forces there. Some 18,000 Gazans, mostly civilians, have died. But Israel has so far failed in its main goal of destroying the military capabilities of Hamas, the Islamist movement that rules Gaza and which, in a terrorist attack on October 7, killed 1,200 Israelis and took 240 people hostage. It seems increasingly clear that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have just weeks to finish the job before the United States, Israel’s vital ally, withdraws its support for the offensive. And success seems unlikely.
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Israel is intensifying its operations. It has deployed an entire IDF airborne division in and around the southern city of Khan Younis, where it believes senior Hamas leaders are hiding. Three armored divisions continue to operate in the northern sector, in devastated Gaza City. Fierce fighting has taken place in the Shujaiya and Jabalia areas of this city. The Israeli army is destroying tunnels, where Hamas fighters take refuge, and infrastructure, both military and civilian, in the city and its outskirts.
Israel is trying to create the impression that the resistance is collapsing and that it controls a vast territory. Images have appeared on social media of dozens of men surrounded by Israeli soldiers, who order them to strip down to their underwear to search for explosive belts. The army has raised the Israeli flag in Gaza City’s Palestine Square and lit Hanukkah candles at various locations on the battlefield. But this is still not the “victory photo” – the image that confirms a final triumph – that Israeli citizens demand of their leaders.
An army spokesman said a few days ago that they had killed 5,000 members of Hamas, and admitted that for every dead fighter there were two dead civilians. But Hamas still has thousands of fighters emerging from tunnels to carry out ambushes on Israeli soldiers. About 100 uniformed men from Tel-Aviv have died. Hamas still holds more than 130 hostages who were not released during the November temporary truce. They are in danger from the constant bombardment.
On December 8, Israeli soldiers were injured in a failed attempt to rescue a hostage. Hamas later showed gruesome footage of a dead hostage, a 25-year-old Israeli civilian. Hamas claims the Israelis killed him in their rescue attempt, while Israel claims Hamas murdered him.
Israel has also failed to eliminate Hamas’ leadership or destroy its infrastructure. The IDF has killed several senior commanders of the Islamist organization. But Yahiya Sinwar, the group’s general in Gaza, and Muhammad Deif and Marwan Issa, the commanders of its fighting force, have survived, until now. This is thanks in part to Hamas’ network of hundreds of kilometers of tunnels, which Israel has been unable to destroy despite its firepower and drone surveillance capabilities.
Destroying the tunnel network takes months
Israeli generals have said since the start of the war that it would take months of painstaking operations with soldiers on the ground to destroy this network of tunnels. More than two months later, they still predict a problem of “months”, as a Netanyahu adviser admitted this Monday. But maybe they don’t have that much time.
The civilian death toll is already draining international support for Israel’s offensive. Now the United States, its indispensable ally, is wavering.
On December 8, the United States vetoed an emergency UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The United Kingdom abstained. The remaining thirteen members voted in favor of the resolution. The US veto underscored how dependent Israel has become on its strategic ally for diplomatic support. It also needs more American weapons. The State Department has just approved a shipment of 14,000 120 mm tank rounds, one of the main munitions that the Israeli military is using in its ground operations.
Both governments publicly deny that President Joe Biden’s administration has set any kind of deadline for the Israelis to end their offensive. But several sources have confirmed that during his recent visit to Israel Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, told the Israelis that they should finish before 2024.
Meanwhile, the administration is also demanding that Israel do much more to ease the suffering of Palestinians, particularly in southern Gaza. Some 2 million people, more than three-quarters displaced from their homes by the fighting, are overcrowded, with scarce supplies and no sanitation, with the risk of disease outbreaks growing.
If the United States calls for an end to the fighting early in the New Year, its luck may begin to improve a little. But neither peace nor bearable living conditions are likely to return anytime soon. The Israeli bombardment of Gaza may end, but the Israeli military is likely to continue a less intense campaign with its ground forces. In this scenario, Hamas will continue to control parts of Gaza. Thus, Israel will have failed in its main objective of destroying the perpetrators of the October 7 massacre.
2023-12-11 13:16:16
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