The 12-month Euribor, the index to which most variable mortgages in Spain are referenced, closed the month of December at 3.679%, thus registering its biggest monthly drop since February 2009. The data confirms the beginning of the de-escalation of the debt price in the State.
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Compared to November, when it closed with a monthly average of 4.022%, the index has been cut by 0.34 points, the most pronounced monthly drop since February 2009, when it was 0.48 percentage points. In addition, the figure for December represents a return to minimums since last March, when the Euribor closed at 3.647%. Still, it remains above the level at which it ended 2022 of 3.018%.
In its daily rate, the index has settled at 3.513%, its lowest level since March 27, when it stood at 3.469%.
Impact on the mortgage
The December Euribor level implies that a person who has contracted a variable mortgage of 150,000 euros with a residual maturity of 30 years and with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor and has had to review it this month , would register a fee increase of around 295 euros per month.
XTB analyst Manuel Pinto, in statements collected by Europa Press, believes that the Euribor will continue to fall in the coming weeks, thanks to the trend – reaffirmed this same Friday – of moderate inflation, which closes the year at 3 .1% annually. Faced with this situation, it is more likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) will finally bet on reducing interest rates – the price of money – in the coming months.
Taking into account the evolution of the Euribor in other periods of “major cuts”, such as the years 2000 and 2008, Pinto sees it possible for the reference interest rate to fall to levels close to 2% over the course of year. “While the ECB does not dare to predict the number of rate cuts or the dates, the market is already predicting that rates will drop by 150 basis points and that the first cut could come in April,” explains the expert.
Asufin, for its part, predicts that the Euribor for the month of March 2024 could already be at 3.30%, while in June it would be at 3% and in September at 2.8%. To close 2024, the index would end at 2.6%, according to their forecasts.
2023-12-29 16:27:39
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