Like every year since 2017, Julien Guyon calculates in real time the probabilities of the draw for the knockout stages of the Champions League. The professor of applied mathematics at the École des Ponts ParisTech thus deduced that PSG had a 17.30% chance of falling against… Bayern Munich, who had eliminated the capital club at this stage of the competition. last year.
Last year, he calculated that Paris had a 19.46% chance of playing the Bavarian club, and it was him that the capital’s players fell on. At the time, his painting offered a clearer lead to this hypothetical poster. But this year, it’s much more open. “In fact, it’s very balanced because there aren’t many constraints,” Julien Guyon almost apologizes. This is the first time I have witnessed this situation. » In this case, PSG has a 14.75% chance of falling on Manchester City, and 13.59% of falling on… all the others, with the obvious exception of Borussia Dortmund, already crossed during the phase of groups.
One chance in two of coming across a Spanish club
It is therefore very balanced, and it is a bit the fault of the Spanish and Italian clubs: Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Real Sociedad and Atlético de Madrid all finished first in their group while three Italian teams (Inter, Naples, Lazio Rome) placed themselves in second position. As a result, Bayern will perhaps be PSG’s designated opponent in the draw, which will take place on Monday (from noon) in Nyon, but Luis Enrique and his players above all have more than a one in two chance of falling against an opponent from La Liga (54.30%).
These figures will change as soon as the first ball is drawn on Monday and the probabilities will logically be clearer. The “Live probability calculator” designed by Julien Guyon allows you to simulate the draws and see how the probabilities will evolve live.
2023-12-13 23:35:11
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