The newest Next Gen Stats model simulates the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to provide detailed estimates of each team’s playoff chances. Through the rest of the regular season, the NGS Analytics team will present the latest snapshot of the playoff picture through the lens of probability analysis.
What separates the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model from the rest? During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation.
A few notes before we dig in:
All probabilities presented are current as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 19 unless otherwise noted below.
Terms defined:
If Win: A team’s chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in their upcoming game.
If Lose: A team’s chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in their upcoming game.
Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team’s playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team’s probability of making the playoffs if they win their upcoming game versus if they lose. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team’s playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team’s playoff probabilities.
2023-12-19 21:01:00
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