Cover 7 | Wednesday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Wednesday, Randy Mueller presents his insights from the point of view of the general manager’s seat.
As we reach the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season for most teams, we on the team-building side of things would use this window to ask questions internally of “What if?”
Questions always sparked discussion in front offices, and discussion could reveal details we had not thought about to that point in the schedule. Feel free to jump in this discussion as well as we cover a few comparisons that figure to be of interest in the second half of the regular season.
• MVP is in the hands of these two players
• Best defensive player in the league?
• Which elite WR would coaches rather have to defend?
Halfway through, these are the top two MVP candidates
I realize that Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is viewed by most as the best player in the league. I don’t disagree, and if we were having a draft, he’d be my first selection. But for this season’s MVP, I think Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is having a better year, and Bengals QB Joe Burrow is now trending toward a level that might just surpass all the candidates.
Jackson, this year, is a much-improved version with a new offensive scheme and new assets on the perimeter to throw to. He is looking to extend plays with the idea of throwing downfield instead of just taking off and relying on his great athletic ability. His vision to second and third options in what used to be a passing game of predetermined targets is taking his performance to the next level. He also is throwing with timing and anticipation that we had not seen, at least to this level, in the past.
The meshing of new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s scheme with Jackson’s skill set may be the best in the league, and it might mean that Jackson’s game surpasses that of his MVP year of 2019. He is taking what the coverage delivers as far as options go, which gives Jackson a chance to be more creative but still disciplined with throws within the system. If I had a criticism of Jackson, it would be his lack of trajectory and touch on deep balls, but that will always be a struggle because of his throwing mechanics (read: his low elbow release point).
GO DEEPER
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Jackson is completing a career-high 71 percent of his passes (75 percent the past three weeks, according to TruMedia), but as we know, being available for an entire season always has been an issue with him, and we are only halfway home.
As great as Jackson has played, his AFC North division rival Burrow is close in his rear-view mirror. Forget about the first month of the regular season when Burrow was playing on one leg and couldn’t set his feet to drive a throw downfield. The last three weeks he is completing a league-best 77.6 percent of his passes.
Burrow’s advantage in this comparison is that he not only has all the physical tools but also the frame of a traditional pocket-passing NFL QB. His accuracy is surgical to go with a consistent trajectory and touch without needing a window to throw through. Burrow just doesn’t miss throws, and he layers the ball over underneath coverage as well as anyone in the game. He might be the best pure passer in the NFL. He has performed his best in the biggest games, and his ability to bring his team back when needing to throw from the pocket might be better than Jackson’s.
Rest assured, around the water cooler or during lunch breaks in NFL buildings, these guys’ games get broken down in painstaking detail. This is a two-man race as we sit here in Week 10, and next on Nov. 16 we get to see them go head-to-head, so then we can all pick our preferred flavor. Until, that is, Mahomes and his receivers get things sorted out and it becomes a three-man race.
The NFL’s two best defensive players
It doesn’t take an NFL GM to tell you that entering Week 10, the two defensive players whom NFL offenses fear the most are Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett and Dallas Cowboys multipurpose defender Micah Parsons. Deciding who is better is a different story. If I could only pick one going forward, here is my attempt and rationale:
These two can equally wreck the game for just about any opponent in the NFL, but the thing that separates them might be the equivalent to finding “Waldo.” Garrett lines up as a traditional DE in a four-man front or in the Browns’ sub packages a high percentage of the time. He requires being doubled, sometimes by two offensive linemen (which is rare around the league), but mostly with a running back or tight end who must give him more than a love tap on their way out because he weighs 270 pounds. Garrett probably gets as much offensive attention as anyone in the league, and he still has 9.5 sacks, tied for third in the NFL.
Teams would love to do the same to Parsons, but this is where the finding Waldo comes in. Parsons lines up all over the place: on the edge, over the offensive guard, off the ball at inside linebacker or outside linebacker, and he might even drop into coverage. So locating him is a game within the game.
Myles Garrett is nearly impossible to contain with his speed and strength combination coming off the edge. (Scott Galvin / USA Today)
Garrett, at age 27, is the more physical of the two at the point of attack. He uses his hands, sheds blocks as if those in front of him are Pop Warner-sized and has all the moves of a very accomplished NFL pass rusher. His change of speeds once underway and body control to play with great pad level is scary. He counters, he crosses over, he spins and he flat-out runs by most offensive tackles as only the rare pass rushers can do. When you watch him play you forget how big he really is. He is sudden off the ball and bends around the corner like a power forward driving to the rim. He gets held consistently, but his strength allows him to squeeze the pocket with both power and speed.
Parsons is less physical at the point of attack but more versatile. His best trait is hard to define. I think he is actually at his best when lining up inside and shooting gaps and just being too quick for guards and centers to handle. His ability to penetrate with a non-stop motor and his nose for the ball serve him well against the run and the pass. At times he will jump around a block and open a gap as he learns the game and searches for consistency. But many other times he just wills his way to the ball carrier or QB like no other player in the league.
Parsons’ physicality reminds me — yes, I’m gonna say it — of New York Giants great Lawrence Taylor. He is on pace for his third consecutive 13-plus sack season (currently at 7.5), and I love the options he gives defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in alignment and pressure packages. Dallas can vary its looks and schemes because of what Parsons offers in his skill set. That is just as rare as Garrett’s pure pass-rushing traits.
Pure pass rushers might be the second-most sought-after skill in the football world, after passing the football. Garrett’s 84 career sacks tell me that this year is no fluke. For my money, he is the best defensive player in the league this year. But if I get to choose one guy to build around for the future, Parsons, at age 24, looks like a once-in-a-generation talent, and I would pick him first.
Which elite WR would I rather defend?
The two most dominant receivers in the game during the first half of the 2023 NFL season are the Philadelphia Eagles’ A.J. Brown and the Miami Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill.
They are both really good but couldn’t be more different in skill set. They both stand out in that they are the best of a really good group of players that might be deeper than at any point in the last 30 years in the NFL, so to critique them is an exercise only and in no way reflects any real negative.
Brown is bigger, more physical and imposes his strength and will on defenders to catch everything, even when covered. He gives QB Jalen Hurts the confidence that he is open even when he’s not. His ability to extend and get the ball with maybe the best catch radius (catching away from his body) in the league is a trait that is hard to duplicate. I love his route running, he tracks and adjusts to long balls, and for a bigger guy he can tip-toe in and out of breaks like a smaller man. One of the best things he does is break tackles after contact and gain positive yards like a running back. He finds soft spots versus zones, has a nice feel for reading coverages, his play speed is deceptive, and he can run by people.
GO DEEPER
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Most anyone can describe Hill without my help. Just know this, his speed is generational, that’s how fast he is — and I say that as someone who drafted both Joey Galloway and Ted Ginn, two players who each ran through defenses for more than a decade. Neither can run like Hill. I’m a bit partial to how speed can change the way people defend you and how even if you seldom throw the ball to a player with that kind of speed, a defense has to account for it as a threat, and it is always in the back of a defender’s mind. I remember the late Raiders owner Al Davis once telling me when I was in Seattle and we played the Raiders twice a year, “You like the same kind of guys that I do Randy, fast ones,” with the tone only he could deliver. I took that as a compliment.
Hill leads the league in targets and TD catches along with having 69 receptions. Numbers are one thing, but what he also does is give an offense very few single high coverages, and he usually gets coverage rolled to his side. His burst can outrun most angles and the best defensive back technique, and landmarks mean nothing when he gets to full speed.
Coaches no doubt feel they can scheme to stop Brown, and your defensive mistakes are not as magnified versus his strength and power game. But defending Hill is a total keep-you-up-at-night job. He can destroy the best design of any game plan. A vote of defensive coordinators around the league might not be unanimous, but it likely would be very one-sided when naming the player they least want to have to defend.
(Top photo: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
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2023-11-08 10:46:33
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